In Need Of a 4 Leaf Clover
by Michael Riehn
Whiteyball Staff
The Cardinals are off to a fantastic start on the season. As of last night they have the best winning percentage in baseball with a 14-6 mark. That is not to say that everyone has been entirely lucky. Last Friday we discussed Albert Pujols and his low batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
You know what is scary about the 2009 Pujols start? As good as he’s been, he has actually been unlucky. He only has a .292 Batting Average on Balls in Play. This is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). Over Pujols’ career he averages a .322 mark (which is 30 points higher than he is currently averaging).
Todd Wellemeyer at the Winter Warm-Up
Todd Wellemeyer has fallen victim to the same problem, only in reverse. He is 1-2 with a 6.14 ERA. Yet he hasn’t given up a home run and his strikeout to walk ration is almost identical to last year (2.17 in 2009 to 2.16 in 2008). You could actually make a case that he is pitching BETTER than last year! So what is the culprit to his bad start?
His line drive percentage is up a little bit (Once a ball is hit it can have 3 outcomes. It can be a line drive, fly ball, or ground ball… line drives are the worst of the three, ground balls the best) but so has his ground ball percentage. His line drive increase is not good, but also not enough to cause this much of a difference in ERA.
Just like Albert Pujols, there is a stat that shows how unlucky he has been. Opposing hitters have had a .430 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) when they face him. This is EXTREMELY unlucky (his career BABIP is .294).
To put that in perspective, no player has hit .430 in a full season since the 1800’s. Basically, every player is supposed to hit .290-.300 against him with normal luck. His line drive increase may mean that they are supposed to hit .300-.305, but his luck is so bad that they are hitting 130 points higher than his norm! Balls in play are not finding gloves, and unless you are striking out everyone this can be a problem.
Don’t write off Wellemeyer just yet in 2009. His ERA may be high, but luck will even out over the course of a season.
Photo courtesy of Dustin Mattison
Filed Under: Baseball • Uncategorized
About the Author: I am a Cardinal fan, from a small town in Missouri and grew up listening to the Whiteyball teams of the 1980s (but still love the Tony LaRussa version). Currently living outside of St. Louis, I am a partial season ticket holder with a great group of friends.
I hold the position of Director of Sales and Marketing for a hydraulic press manufacturer and serve on a local youth baseball board of directors. Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/mriehn
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