An All-Star Weekend

by Michael Riehn
Whiteyball Staff

Let’s face it, exhibitions are usually a snoozefest.  I don’t watch the Pro Bowl (does anyone?) and I’m pretty meh about the NBA and Hockey All-Star events.  I can’t tell you the last time I watched another All-Star event.  Baseball is different.  The game really means something more than just “league pride” (whatever that is).  I don’t want to see a lovefest, I want to see a battle of the best players.  I want my National League team to break their losing streak, and if that means a player has to be taken out at second base, so be it (As long as Albert Pujols is not the player breaking up the play, he should be wrapped in bubble wrap at all times to protect from injury).

I know the argument, “How is it fair that the best team doesn’t get home field advantage?”.  I counter that argument with “How do you determine the best team before the World Series is played”?  Remember, before  “this time it counts” happened we were rotating the home field advantage each year.  Nobody cared about this randomness.  The All-Star game deciding home field advantage is MUCH better than this.

Some people believe the team with the best record should have the home field advantage, but there are problems with this too.  Say the American League is 10% better than the National League.  Now factor in the differences between schedules (The Cardinals play the Royals every year, the Yankees play the Mets).  Would the Cardinals deserve home field advantage for having one more win than the Yankees?  How many more wins would they have to have to make it legitimate?

So if you can’t make home field advantage “fair”, why not have the All-Star game decide it?  That is just as random as anything else, and it makes the game more enjoyable.  I know it is one game and anything can happen in a one game series (the Nationals could even beat the Dodgers!), but there is a reason why the AL has beaten the NL 11 out of the last 12 years (and tied the other time).  They have been that much better.  Letting the league with the best players (and thus the tougher schedule play) isn’t a bad way to decide the World Series home field.

Does the National League have a chance this year?  The pitching and bench match up well, but I thought it would be fun to look at the two starting lineups and see who has the advantage:

Note:  Per usual, the slash line is batting average/ on base percentage (.340 is average) / slugging percentage (roughly .450 and above is good)/ ultimate zone rating (Zero is average, anything above zero is above average, below zero is below average)

Catcher:
AL:  Joe Mauer (.388/.462/ .656), NL:  Yadier Molina (.288/ .359/ .397)

This is no contest offensively.  Mauer is one of the best hitters in baseball, regardless of position, and has been torching American League pitching this year.  Molina has been a good hitter (for a catcher) and gets the nod defensively, but even the defense is closer than you might think.  Both players have gold glove awards and are regarded as great game callers.  Molina’s biggest advantage is with the arm, but it is not enough to offset Mauer’s huge offensive advantage.

Catcher advantage:  American League (by a wide margin)

First Base:
AL:  Mark Teixera (.281/.388/ .546, -4.3 UZR150) , NL:  Albert Pujols (.331/.459/ .725, -2.3 UZR150)

Offensively there is no comparison.  Albert and his .725 slugging percentage are on a different plane than anyone else in baseball this year, and that doesn’t even count his 71 point advantage on Teixera in OBP (on base percentage).  The best player in the game is having a career year with the bat.  Both Teixera and Pujols are having down years defensively, but both are regarded as plus defenders for the position.

First base advantage:  National League (huge advantage)

Second Base
AL:  Dustin Pedroia (.296/ .374/ .402, 8.6 UZR/150), NL:  Chase Utley (.306/ .427/ .570, 1.8 UZR/150)

Utley is normally one of the best defensive 2nd basemen in the game.  His last 2 years, his UZR/150 was over 20.  Pedroia had a slugging percentage close to .500 last year in his MVP season.  While both of the players are having down years in some respects, Utley is having another fantastic year with the bat and has been above average with the glove.  Pedroia  is not in the same stratosphere as Utley on the whole.  Utley is a top 5 hitter/player in the majors, and the best second basemen in the game.

Second base advantage:  National League (again, by a wide margin)

Shortstop
AL:  Derek Jeter (.315/ .393/ .457, 1.4 UZR/150), NL:  Hanley Ramirez (.346/ .409/ .574, -.4 UZR/150)

Derek Jeter is a Hall of Fame shortstop having another great season.  He is not Hanley Ramirez, who has an unparallelled combination of speed and power at the most difficult fielding position.  Neither of them are great with the glove, but are having average seasons with the leather this year.  Ramirez may be the second best player in the game today (behind Pujols, and grouped with Utley and Mauer), and is one of the game’s top stars.

Shortstop advantage:  NL (by a wide margin)

Third base
AL:  Evan Longoria (.287/ .364/ .533, 14.1) NL: David Wright (.328/ .416/ .468, -10.3)

This is the first tough call.  Both players are among the best young talent in the game.  Longoria is in the midst of a terrible slump, Wright has lost his power stroke this year and is having a terrible defensive year (he’s normally above average).  Longoria leads Wright in OPS and fielding this year, so I have to give the slight edge to the AL.

Third base advantage:  (slight) AL

Outfield 1:
AL:  Jason Bay (.264/ .377/ .535, -9.8), NL: Raul Ibanez (.312/ .371/ .656, -0.4)

Bay is having a normal Jason Bay Season, though he’s probably a better fielder than he’s shown.  Ibanez has been injured over the last month but is having a career year at the ripe old age of 37.  He’s a lot worse fielder than he’s shown so far, but you can’t ignore that slugging percentage.

Outfield 1 advantage:  NL

Outfield 2:
AL:  Ichiro Suzuki  (.361/ .392/.481, 13.4), NL:  Ryan Braun (.321/ .403/ .550, -6.2)

This is a great case where batting average can be misleading.  Ichiro is hitting .361, but has a worse on base percentage than Braun (with 69 points less in slugging percentage).  He’s generally regarded as one of the best fielding right fielders in the game, while Braun is regarded as a good bat who wears a glove every once in awhile between at bats.  I think the fielding difference is enough to call this a draw, but they are both good players.  I’d probably rather have Braun, but this is too close to call.

Outfield 2 advantage:  Even

Outfield 3:
AL:  Josh Hamilton (.248/.301/ .447, 19.9), NL:  Carlos Beltran (.336/ .425/ .527, -7.5)

This may be the biggest gap between players in the game.  Hamilton was fantastic in 2008, but does not deserve to be an All-Star this year.  He’s having a career year with the glove, but Joe Thurston has been getting on base more often (let that sink in a minute).  He’s missed a lot of time, and is generally not that good with the glove.  Beltran is having another good year but has battled injuries himself.  He is generally regarded as a good fielder, but injuries have caused him to have one of his worst years with the leather.

Outfield 3 advantage: NL

Overall, the National League has the better lineup than the American League 5-2-1 and has a better chance for home field advantage.  The NL team has a real shot to win for the first time in 12 years (The AL is 11-0-1 in the past 12).  They have the best starting pitcher in the game today in Tim Lincecum and the best closer in Francisco Rodriguez.

I’m looking forward to taking in the All-Star events in St. Louis.  From the Fanfest to the All-Star Game, and everything in between, I’ll be right there enjoying an experience of a lifetime.

Filed Under: Baseball