Getting Value in a Trade
by Michael Riehn
Whiteyball Staff
What are we willing to trade?
Well, that was fun. There’s just something about getting swept by the last place team in the NL West that makes you want to vomit. Cardinal Nation is up in arms about their hitless wonders, and I can’t blame them for being impatient.
I think I’m going to start calling the Cardinals current problems the “6 is a serious number curse”. Mobile On The Run gas station (who runs the promotion of score 6 and get a 25 cent drink the next day) must have voodoo dolls or mystical powers to decrease the cost of their promotion. No team can really hit this bad… can they? The only one immune to their devious scheme is Albert Pujols.
Chris Clark had a great post yesterday summing up the fans’ frustrations. In essence, he believes that we’ve been promised reinforcements for two years and nothing has happened. He believes it’s management’s fault and that they aren’t doing enough to make a deal that would help this team.
There may be some truth to this sentiment, but I won’t belabor the point. Instead, I’m going to take the other track. What are we willing to give up for the quick fix and what are the long term ramifications?
Let’s first look at what the Cardinals won’t be giving up. As frustrated as you are with Ankiel, Duncan, Barden, Wellemeyer and all of the other Cardinals that are struggling, they are not going to get you Alex Rodgriguez, Mark DeRosa (or anything else of use) right now.
Chris Duncan, and a couple of minor league players nobody ever heard of, are not going to get you someone that is going to help this team start hitting. The kind of return for said players would be Blaine Boyer or players of his ilk. Big time gambles who are more likely going to be worse, with less upside.
All of the fans that believe we need to trade Duncan NOW! to the American League team so that he can DH are missing the point. You might as well hold onto these players because they have the potential to help you more by keeping them. As scary as it is to believe, waiting for them to hit is worth more than trading them for their “worth”. That’s not to say there aren’t better ways to utilize the roster, but that is another post.
In order to get something of use, you are going to have to have an increase in payroll AND you are going to have to give up good players of value. The list of players with the highest value range from the untouchable (Pujols, Wainwright, Rasmus, Yadi, Carpenter), to the players that are currently doing well or that are counted on (Perez, Motte, Franklin, Loshe) to the mid level prospects who have minor value to other teams (Darryl Jones, Jon Jay, Peter Kozma, Mitchell Boggs).
Our top hitting/ pitching prospects, Brett Wallace and Lance Lynn, are untradeable until they have been signed with the club for one year per MLB rules and neither of them are ready for the majors (which is what teams want and will create the most value). Until a prospect is ready to take a shot at the majors, he doesn’t have enough value to trade IMO (except in rare instances).
In order to get something of value, you are probably going to have to trade one of Perez/ Motte, plus two others from the prospect group, PLUS take on salary. Remember, clubs know the Cardinals are in dire straits and there aren’t a lot of clubs that are “out of it” right now due to the wild card. It is a seller’s market and the Cardinals would have to pay dearly.
Is this worth Perez/ Jones/ Boggs for an Adrian Beltre, Garritt Atkins or Mark DeRosa (plus salary, plus possibly losing them after this year)? Beltre and DeRosa are good and useful players that would help, but neither of them will be confused with All-Stars, and all have had their struggles this season. We could get Atkins for less, but would he help right now? He’s hitting .189/.279/.300 this year and would fit right in with the Cardinals current woes.
Most players that teams are willing to give up will be free agents soon. I don’t want to hamstring the payroll, AND give away top prospects for a rental of a good, but not great player.
As crazy as it sounds, I’d like the Cardinals to stay the course with patience. If a fair deal comes along, pounce on it. I just don’t want to hear about the Cardinals trading a young Danny Haren for a 1 year rental, or even just overpaying to make a move. Remember Mark Mulder? You don’t want to make a trade just do do something, because those types of deals that haunt you forever. You have to get value for value.
Filed Under: Baseball
About the Author: I am a Cardinal fan, from a small town in Missouri and grew up listening to the Whiteyball teams of the 1980s (but still love the Tony LaRussa version). Currently living outside of St. Louis, I am a partial season ticket holder with a great group of friends.
I hold the position of Director of Sales and Marketing for a hydraulic press manufacturer and serve on a local youth baseball board of directors. Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/mriehn
The thing I worry most about is what is Pujols thinking. It’s one thing to tell the fans that you are going to do something and not do it, it’s a whole other thing to tell Pujols he will have a supporting cast and then decide not to make a move or sign players. I don’t want to see him leave to a team that wants to compete/spend money.
We have some time to worry about Pujols, but you have a point about fan expectations. The more you talk about making a move (and not doing it), the harder it is for the fans to believe that you are doing something.
I think La Russa and DeWitt’s comments are telling. They keep talking about wanting “value” and that you can’t be held for ransom. It sounds like teams are asking for the moon right now and the Cardinals are rightfully not paying it. Desperation makes the worst moves.
As long as they don’t make another trade for a “project”. We have enough of those on this team.