I recently had a chance to preview a cool new Cardinal Baseball App from the Post Dispatch on my iPhone. If you have a smart phone device, and like to stay connected, it is a must download. The App includes articles, blogs, breaking news and photos from the Post-Dispatch’s baseball coverage team. Features include Twitter updates, player-by-player news updates, schedules, photo galleries and more.

The main benefit I’ve seen is faster upload time for articles on my phone. If you like to follow the post dispatch, it can be a pain to upload the articles from a cellular device. I follow many different baseball websites through RSS feeds downloaded to my phone, but the Post Dispatch has always been difficult. The feed makes you link to the site (instead of sending the article to you), which can take awhile to upload and view (especially if you aren’t connected to the web).

This app is easy to use and articles are downloaded fast in an easy to read format.  It saves time over anything else I’ve used.

It’s a great start, but I hope there are further updates made.  Possible improvements include:  video of interviews and highlights from the games, in game box score updates and standings.  It would also be nice to see team statistics.  This would be icing on an already great cake. 

How to Get the App:
Available on the iPhone, Android, BlackBerry, Palm webOS and Windows Mobile platforms.
Download it for: $2.99
SEARCH your phone’s app store for Cardinals Baseball 2010
TEXT cards to 46275

VISIT www.stltoday.com/cardsapp

Now that’s embarrassing.  After a little more thought I came up with Rick Ankiel.  I remember the hitting, but also walking the bases loaded, then striking out the side, now that was good fun.  I started thinking even deeper and came up with the names Alan Benes, Bud Smith (I know) and Jose Jimenez.  Not exactly an overwhelming list.

I’m going to give the subject an in-depth review one weekend, but until I do, who did I miss?  Please comment and let me know.

And because I can’t resist – fun from last nights game courtesy of Twitter.com/JohnMarecek:

Time to think twice about running onto the field…but then again, it was Philly…

Cardinal Legends Gather for Opening Day (photo courtesy of Nathan Heimgartner)

Imagine a gorgeous summer day with temperatures in the low 80’s. You sit down next to some of your closest friends talking baseball in anticipation of an upcoming game, the first one you’ve seen this year. A warm breeze carries the smell of barbecue as you take a pull from a cold beverage and smile at your good fortune.

I attended my 8th straight St. Louis Cardinal home Opening Day this year, but this one seemed more special than usual. The last couple of seasons, we’ve had rain, snow and overall terrible weather. Attending opening day has almost been more like survival than enjoyment. We hadn’t seen a Cardinal win since 2006 and each of the teams had major flaws that made you doubt how far they’d go.

This year, everything has come together. After a spectacular offseason in which the Cardinals filled their most glaring weaknesses (Holliday, Lopez, Penny, Garcia, Rasmus 2.0), the Cardinals are 15-7 to begin the season and are showing why they are one of the best teams in baseball.

We Have It Good
I was lucky enough to attend the Cardinals away opener in Cincinnati and the difference couldn’t be more striking. Cincinnati was great, but there is added electricity to the air in St. Louis. From the Cardinals pregame ceremonies with the Clydesdales, introductions of Hall of Famers and players to the massive fan support downtown, you figure out how special we have it in St. Louis.

This doesn’t just stop on opening day. The Cardinals routinely have 40,000 strong at the ballpark while other teams struggle to draw 20,000 fans. It doesn’t hurt that the Cardinals have a strong team, but even good teams are feeling the economy around Major League Baseball.

Holliday Blogging

Baby Bryson

After a Winter hiatus, I will be back to blogging around once a week. It’s been a busy time preparing for new beginnings as my son was born April 28th (the same birthday as David Freese).

I also had the opportunity to write for a great Cardinal pre-season magazine (Maple Street Annual). Check it out if you get a chance.  It is full of great information about the 2010 team.  You can find the magazine at many St. Louis (and Southeast Missouri) grocery stores and newsstands or go here.

Albert Pujols

The United Cardinal Bloggers have been doing our regular roundtable, so I thought I’d spark a little debate with an unpopular question: Is Pujols worth the contract the Cardinals will have to give him?  To be honest, my answer would be “yes”, but I thought I’d look at the other side of the equation. With numbers being thrown out like $25 or $30 million for 10 years, you can easily find ways in which the contract won’t work.

While the future Hall of Famer has two years remaining on his contract, signing him has been cause for concern for many in Cardinal nation. In order to preface this question, I brought up a cautionary tale. Frank Thomas may have been a better hitter than Albert Pujols through his age 29 season. Really:

Thomas: .330 BA/ .452 OBP/ .600 SLG/ OPS+ 182
Pujols: .334 BA/ .426 OBP/ .628 SLG/ OPS+ 171

OPS+ normalizes on base plus slugging for league average. Thomas played in a league where it was more difficult to hit than Pujols (due to variables such as baseball parks). While he isn’t anywhere close to the same fielder as Pujols, this comparison shows what a great hitter he was and how comparable the right handed hitters really were.

Frank Thomas

If Thomas were the Cardinal player instead of Pujols, we would have been talking about signing him to the same contract (or slightly less due to his fielding issues). After Thomas turned 30, he only hit .276/.389/.515 with 264 homers and a 134 OPS+. He had quite a few injuries and performed much worse than before 30.

From 2002-2008 (which would be the last 6 years of a 10 year contract), Fangraphs had Thomas worth $51.2 million dollars. A $25 million a year contract in the last 6 years would be $150 million or a net deficit of ONE HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS. Mid market clubs can’t eat $16.6 million per year in performance deficits.

Alex Rodriguez is another good comparison for Pujols. In his age 30-33 seasons, he has been worth 102.9 million. Over 4 years, this is worth $25.725 per season (per Fangraphs). What is Rodriguez going to be worth over the next 6 years with regression?

Now you may say that Albert is going to be different. Thomas fell off a cliff in his age 30 season and nobody projects Pujols to fall that much (or any) this season (age 30). Rodriguez is still a great player and has never had Pujols’s contact rate or plate discipline, but you have to realize that Pujols best seasons are probably behind him.

Is Pujols worth 10 years 25 million dollars? Would you sign him for 10 years $30 million? Are you confident he will be worth it? If so why? What would he have to produce over 10 years as a break even?  I’d have a tough time going over 10 years at $250 million, and while I’d pay that due to what Pujols has done for the franchise, I think 10 at $230 million is closer to what he will be worth (though he will probably sign for somewhere in between 10 @ $25 million and 10 @ $30 million.

The responses were typically one sided for Pujols, with some wishfull thinking that he will sign a below market contract.  Hopefully, our esteemed bloggers are correct…

__________________________________________________________

Chris Reed
http://bird-brained.mlblogs.com

No offense is meant to anyone, but HOLY CRAP do the Sabermetrics guys overthink this game. Some statistics majors and math camp counselors happen to be fans of the game, concoct a bunch of new statistics to bend reality any way it can possibly be bent, and all of a sudden we need to reinvent baseball. Let’s all take a deep breath, put down the graphing calculators, and have a rational discussion.

1) Frank Thomas is likely a first-ballot Hall of Famer, unless his extensive time at DH takes significant votes away. It should not, because he did put in significant field time as well, but you never know. Regardless, even though I am a staunch opponent of the DH in theory, Thomas really was that good…and he missed a lot of time late in his career. Even if his future offensive numbers are 2/3 what they were over the past nine seasons, Pujols would likely be a first ballot HOF’er too. So they’re good company so far.

2) Based on raw offensive numbers, Thomas and Pujols are a very fair comparison to this same point in their careers. But Pujols is a Gold Glove first baseman who has about 12 games at DH on his resume. Thomas, through his age 30 season, had more than two seasons’ worth of games as a DH. Pujols is the more complete player; that gives him an advantage. Knowing what you know to equal points in their careers, who would be your first pick to start a team: Thomas or Pujols? I’m taking the glove.

3) Thomas broke down physically in the second half of his career. Had he not, the guy could have ended up with 600 or more homers and over 2000 RBI. When the White Sox offered him contracts, they obviously had no idea he’d miss significant time. It’s a risk you take. How much would Thomas have been worth healthy? I mean, he came back to hit 39 homers when he was 38 years old. If Thomas can do it, Pujols can do it, and I’d rather he do it in a Cardinal uniform. The Cards could sign Pujols to a five year deal, and he could be hurt for three of them. But, on the day that deal was signed, would it be questioned as risky? Of course not…at least not until after the contract is up and the backpedaling started (kind of like the Mulder for Haren deal). Regardless, because he is an everyday fielder, I would argue that Pujols has to keep himself in better shape to be more durable. Even if the difference is slight, less risk is still less risk.

Pujols is the best player in the game. So far, he’s the player of the century. “Worth” is a very subjective term. No matter what he makes on this next contract, it will be way too much to play a game for six months out of the year. But when you have a player who is the face of the franchise, universally recognized as the best player in the game, a pillar of the community, and wants to be a Cardinal for life, how can you question his worth with advanced statistics that only a small percentage of fans understand? Plus, who’s to say the Cards’ farm system doesn’t produce the next Roger Clemens, Mariano Rivera, and David Wright? If you draft and develop well, you can afford to “overpay” a player or two if they are the pieces you need to win. The Texas Rangers paying A-Rod $250 mil was ridiculous because it handcuffed them from building a good team. I’d say the Cardinals are in a much better position to contend long-term than the Rangers were in 2001. And I really don’t think Pujols will even make it to the open market, where he certainly would get 8-10 years at $30 mil. per year. I expect his 2011 option to be exercised before the end of this year, and I expect the Cards to sign him for 8 years guaranteed with a couple of options and somewhere in the mid- to upper $20 mil range with money deferred. And he will be worth every penny.

—–

Daniel Shoptaw
C70 at the Bat www.cardinal70.com

I agree with most of what Chris said, at least to the comparisons of Frank Thomas and Albert Pujols. For all of Thomas’s exploits, he was never considered the best player in baseball. Maybe that’s because of the juicing of his contemporaries or more to the fact that he was mainly a DH, even when he was playing first. So while I understand Michael’s point in pairing the two, I don’t think AP will go down the same road.

There are a lot of times where the cost/benefit analysis must be done, that trying to decide if Player X is worth Y dollars is a cold and calculating process that doesn’t always satisfy the fanbase. The tough decisions do have to be made for the good of the team.

That said, I think there are times where the factoring of underpayment or overpayment have to be put aside, and Pujols is one of those cases. Not only would the Cardinals lose the best player in baseball, a hole that would take 2-3 people to fill, but they also lose an asset to the community. They lose the chance to have the next Stan Musial, a player that is completely identified with the Cardinals from start to finish. They lose a chance for something special.

Think of what Pujols has given to the team. The first years of his career, the Cards got MVP performance for league minimum cost. Even his 10 year deal that we are reaching the end of hasn’t seen him be a costly bauble but an undervalued contributer. After what he’s done for this team, for what he’s done in the community, for the free publicity and positive press that he brings to the club, how exactly do you overpay him?

I think that Pujols will take less than what he could get to stay here (if they get things done before the ‘11 offseason). I think it’ll be a creative contract, perhaps one with a perpetual option in the vein of what Tim Wakefield had in Boston. It should have a personal services contract on the end of it, so they can pay him $20 million to just be Albert and it won’t count toward the payroll that year. I expect a contract around $27 million or so a year. But, in my opinion, the team has to do it. Losing him will be much more costly.

—–

Mike
Stan Musial’s Stance:  http://stanmusialsstance.com

Before I get to my thoughts on signing AP to a long term deal, let me make a comment on Sabermetrics, because I think people miss the forest for the trees. The whole point of Sabermetrics, at least to me, is to try and convert Qualitative statements into Quantitative data. It’s easy to say Albert Pujols is good, but much harder to define how good. The stats bubba with a sabermetric bent trying to develop that quantitative data pursues a noble goal. Where the SABR disciple sometimes loses his way is when he/she puts all his/her faith in the numbers alone. I agree with Chris here in spirit. But I diverge because Sabermetrics is a TOOL, albeit a powerful tool, in player analysis. If I was a team deciding whether to allocate an enormous amount of my limited resources to one player, I most definitely want all the hard data I can find, or develop, to guard against making a bad investment (a la Vernon Wells and Barry Zito).

Back to AP. We all want him to stay a Cardinal until he retires, and he is absolutely the preeminent RH hitter in baseball today. With the amount of payroll already tied up in Holliday, Carpenter, and Wainwright, I’m not so sure they have the financial resources to pay AP what he’s worth on the open market. Additionally, I think signing AP to a 10 year big money contract would be suicide. Anyone think Pujols will hit at 41 the way he hits today? I don’t.

They ought to be looking at a 6 or 7 year deal max with options after Albert turns 36. Basically the structure deal I had hoped they’d sign Holliday to. It will probably take upwards of $25M a season to retain his services. Paying that kind of moolah through his age 35 season I can see. Paying that kind of money beyond that, just to keep him in St Louis, I think is foolish.

—–

Justin Adams
www.intangiball.wordpress.com

At the risk of appearing a shameless self-promoter, my thoughts on the attempted quantification of Albert Pujols are well documented in my post, The Power of Pujols.

http://intangiball.wordpress.com/2010/02/17/the-power-of-pujols/

Pujols is an anomaly. Which by definition means he defies conventional methods of measurement. This obviously poses problems when it comes to assigning monetary value to the guy now and for the future.

But Frank Thomas? Seriously? While clearly an extraordinary hitter, Frank Thomas is no Albert Pujols. Dude, Thomas was a DH for a reason. If he were remotely close to the first baseman Pujols is, he’d have been an actual first baseman. Defense, people. We’re talking about the entire other half of the game. Not whether or not he can hit a slider thrown left-handed in a day game. Furthermore, how many times has AP been brushed back, scowled at his prey, and promptly gone yard? Is there a stat for that? How many clutch hits? How many extra bases does he take each year? How many butts has he put in the seats of the new ball park? How much attention has he brought to the oft-neglected Saint Louis skyline? Look, I don’t expect to Bill DeWitt to take out a second mortgage on his mother’s house, but…….actually, you know what, I do. Because unless you have access to and are using every statistic that applies, there is always a human element that cannot be nailed down. And let’s not forget to look at these stats:

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/33/baseball-values-09_St-Louis-Cardinals_333240.html

Cardinal ownership is turning a small coin. Pujols is the best player in the game and I have no problem with him being paid appropriately by a very profitable organization. If only to appease a very supportive fan base. If Pujols takes an unforeseen turn into egomania, becomes demanding or distastefully greedy, well then, his value takes a hit and we should consider letting him walk. But until that day, pay the man.

—–

Nick
www.pitchershiteighth.com

I too will run the risk of self-promotion, but I presume we have all written about this subject at one time or another. I actually brought it up in a previous UCB Roundtable, during the 2008 off-season.

I’m going to take off the stat hat for a minute, and go with the bleeding heart fan response.

In a city that so blindly ties themselves to the Cardinals, for many different reasons, Albert Pujols stands out among the current players as a beacon to which everyone and everything gravitates. He is the current center of the Cardinal Nation, and is in the process of writing his name among the immortals to have worn the Birds on the Bat. He has an opportunity to do so while wearing that hallowed uniform for the entirety of his Major League Baseball career.

You just don’t let a guy like that walk.

Yeah, I know that the statistics and history bear out that feeding him a big pile of cash for a ridiculous number of years has the potential to hamstring the team in the later years of the contract. I’m fully aware that Pujols can (and may well yet) probably find a larger payday outside of St. Louis. But Albert Pujols *IS* the Cardinals right now. Would folks still pack Busch III if he were allowed to sign elsewhere after 2011? Probably, eventually.

But if you’ll allow me to engage in some hyperbole for a moment… Would you want to be the ownership group that let one of the greatest players in Cardinals franchise history (if not MLB, by the time he’s done) walk? Nevermind the cost. He means that much to this franchise, to this city. Anheuser Busch sold out. Companies and residents continue to leave the City of St. Louis. Will Pujols be the next entity to find better pastures elsewhere?

I don’t think Bill DeWitt’s group plans to allow that to happen, not on their watch. Defer money, get creative with the deal, as Pip suggests – just don’t let him walk for nothing. At least if you can’t re-sign him, trade the guy!

I think the Cards will ultimately re-sign Pujols. I think they may have been sandbagging for the last couple of seasons on payroll because 1) they could, in the NL Central, 2) they were aware this Pujols deal was on the horizon, 3) if not, isn’t Pujols the kind of guy worth taking a loss on for a few seasons?

My big question: if Pujols is true to his word of wanting to finish his career in St. Louis and is willing to take a deal for $20-22mm per year, arguably below current market value, will the MLBPA allow it to happen? Remember that the Players’ Association stepped in a few years ago when Alex Rodriguez appeared headed to Boston, but his contract wasn’t favorable enough for the PA’s liking.

——-

Pip, Fungoes http://fungoes.net

How is considering how much Pujols’s future worth “overthinking”? Given that it’s probably a $100-million decision, if anything is worth thinking about, it’s his future contract. The surest sign of how *irrational* we are about this topic is that we start name-calling over merely posing the question.

As Daniel and Chris have noted, the statistical comparisons of Pujols and Thomas are perhaps insufficient, but mostly because of fielding, which granted is no small thing. But given their wOBA through their age-29 seasons — .436 and .447, respectively — it’s difficult to argue that Pujols is a better hitter. The point that I think Michael is making here is salutary: As fans we tend to think that players — especially great ones — aren’t subject to the laws of science, specifically aging. And in that, Thomas should make us pause and dispassionately consider how neither Pujols is above the effects of aging and decay. Thomas’s latter-career physical breakdown is more the rule than an exception. The simple reality is that by the time Pujols’s current contract ends, we likely will have seen his best, and not only will he fail to improve, he’ll actually get worse. True, worse is a relative term: Even diminished, Pujols is still better that most players (as Thomas was). But there’s a lot of money between “better than average” and $30 million a year. As much as Cardinal fans clamor for the team to “do whatever it takes” to keep Pujols a Cardinal for the rest of his career, given their treatment of past players who made considerably less money, I seriously doubt their ability to graciously endure a player whose declining production increases the disparity between his value and his pay and quite possibly inhibits the team’s ability to win.

I propose something a bit radical (big surprise, I know): If, as Pujols, claims, it’s not principally about the money but on being part of a competitive team, the Cardinals can honor their superstar with a lifetime contract, but one whose value is based on Pujols’s actual current performance (and not his past) and that allows Pujols to opt-out if the team is no longer competitive. For example, Fangraphs estimates the three-time MVP to have a free-agent value of between $32 and $35 million in 2010. If he were to sign such a contract extension/restructure this spring and performed as expected, his salary for 2010 would be between $32-35 million (rather than the $16 million he is currently to receive). As he went on playing, his salaries might be something like $30m, $25m, $20m, $15m, $11m, $7m, etc. That would represent good faith on his part: He would be paid approximately what he was worth (at least on the playing field, which, granted, is only part of his total value). For the Cardinals’ part, they would provide a clause whereby Pujols could become a free agent if they, for example, had back-to-back losing seasons (or three of five, etc.). Will it happen? Of course not. But come 2011, both parties — either Pujols, due to a career-threatening injury, or the Cardinals due to the siren song of east-coast dollars — may find themselves wishing they would have.

On Saturday afternoon at 3:00 PM Central, the United Cardinal Blogger Radio Hour, will have the Cardinals minor league director John Vuch on as a guest on another special edition of the show. Dustin from Whiteyball and Nick from Pitchers Hit Eighth will quiz him about St. Louis’s farm system and who we should keep an eye on this season.

You can also download the podcast by going to iTunes and searching for the United Cardinal Bloggers

The United Cardinal Bloggers have been in existence since 2007 and work together on various projects and discussions.  The UCB Radio Hour came out of that in 2008, providing yet another forum for talking Cardinal baseball.

With Holliday back in the fold, the cards are going to give Freese first shot at third.  I could care less about the off season mistakes (to a point), I just want to see what the kid can do on the field.  I think there’s sneaky good defense and 15-20 homers if things go well.  If they don’t, then the man stick Allen Craig might be an option, but questions about his defense abound.

Enter Tyler Greene, who recently noted the third base job was open and he wanted in.  He doesn’t have Freese-like numbers in AAA, but they aren’t as bad as you think.  2009 saw a .291 avg., 15 homers and 30, yes 30 stolen bases in 336 at bats.  That should put the former first round pick on your radar.  Here’s what I like even more, if you look at his stats, they get better as he faces better competition.

Greene will be 26 this year, so he’s getting a little old to be a prospect, but it wouldn’t be there first time the light went on after a few years.

I keep hearing he’s going to end up a utility player, but I’m starting to wonder if there’s more there?  Time will tell, but he’s one player I’m going to keep an eye on this spring.

Clark

Albert Pujols

The Cardinals have been blessed with fantastic teams in the 2000’s.  A World Series Championship, 2 pennants and 5 division titles, 7 playoff appearances, 1 Cy Young Award and 3 MVPs are just a small list of accomplishments for the organization.  The United Cardinal Bloggers are doing a best players of the decade review.

So who gets to be on the list?  The criteria for me:

1. I’m not looking at who was best for the decade, but who did the best in a specific season
2. Decade is defined as 2000-2009
3. Each position will be accounted for with a full starting 5 (pitchers) and a closer.
4. Players can’t be listed multiple times, so while Albert Pujols may have had the best season as a third baseman, left field and first base, I’m only taking his best season (which happens to be at first base)
5. Must have 400 plate appearances to qualify (Sorry Matt Holliday 2009)

First a primer on OPS+:  OPS+ is OPS adjusted for the park and the league in which the player played, but not for fielding position. An OPS+ of 100 is defined to be the league average. An OPS+ of 150 or more is excellent and 125 very good, while an OPS+ of 75 or below is poor.

THE LIST:

First Base: Tino Martinez 2003, er, I mean Albert Pujols 2009.

The Tino joke aside, it wasn’t hard to pick who the best Cardinal player of the decade was, at first base or any other position.  It was difficult picking his best season.  He’s been so good for so long that almost any season he’s had would be the best at any other position for the Cardinals (or any other team).  Technically, 2010 had a higher OPS+ with 190, but the 59 more plate appearances and a career high in stolen bases put him over the top (in my opinion).

Second Base: Fernando Vina 2001

Honestly, Skip Schumaker’s 2009 was close, but Vina gets the edge due to his Glove Award Winning defense and base running.  You don’t remember it now, but Vina had a fantastic pivot on the double play.

Shortstop: Edgar Renteria 2003

Renteria had an amazing season in 2003 that would have looked good in a corner outfield spot.  What makes it even better is that he played Gold Glove caliber defense at the most demanding position on the field and stole 34 bases.

Third Base: Scott Rolen 2004

Rolen always had an amazing glove, but he improved his game with MVP caliber offense in 2004.

Left Field: J.D. Drew 2001

This was the toughest call out of every position (and technically this was right field).  Not because Drew didn’t play well (he did), but because he was injured so much.  The talent was real though, and he didn’t have much competition.

Centerfield: Jim Edmonds 2004

The third member of the MV3 with Pujols and Rolen, it is amazing to think back to the time when we had 3 players in the top 5 of the MVP voting.

Rightfield: Ryan Ludwick 2008

After battling injuries throughout his career, Ludwick finally got healthy and won a silver slugger award in 2008.  Hopefully, he will regain some of this form for a repeat in 2010.

Pitching

Primer for ERA+:  ERA+ adjusts a pitcher’s earned run average (ERA) according to the pitcher’s ballpark (in case the ballpark favors batters or pitchers) and the ERA of the pitcher’s league. Average ERA+ is set to be 100; a score above 100 indicates that the pitcher performed better than average, below 100 indicates worse than average.

Starting Pitcher 1: Chris Carpenter 2009

How could I not take the year he won the Cy Young?  I provided both for comparison.  This was the most difficult pitching decision that I had to make.  In 2005, Carpenter threw over 240 innings, led the league with 7 complete games and had 213 Ks (and more K’s per 9 than 2009).  In 2009 he had a slightly lower walk rate and almost NEVER gave up a home run.  I’d take either, but I think Carp’s 2009 was SLIGHTLY more dominant.

Starting Pitcher 2: Adam Wainwright 2009

A workhorse season, it wasn’t quite as good as Carp’s (and would rank behind Carp’s 2005), but fantastic nonetheless.

Starting Pitcher 3: Darryl Kile 2001

I know that 2000 is considered his better year because he won 20 games (and was 5th in the Cy Young voting), but 2001 sticks out as a better season to me.  He kept the ball in the ballpark better and had an improved ERA because of it.  Either season is great, and he left us far too soon.

Starting Pitcher 4: Matt Morris

Matt Morris in his prime was a beautiful thing to watch.  In 2001 he put it all together for a brief peak at the top.

Starting Pitcher 5: Rick Ankiel 2000

It’s hard to remember how good Rick Ankiel really was.  His cartoon curveball and electric fastball took the league by storm in 2000.  Along with Darryl Kile, these two should have been leading the Cardinals through the early to mid 2000’s.  Instead, both of their careers were cut short.  10 strikeouts per 9 innings is sick.

Honorable Mentions:  Joel Pinerio 2009, Woody Williams 2003

Closer: Jason Isringhausen 2002

For all of the grief that Issi took in Cardinal Nation, you would think he wasn’t very good.  On the contrary, Isringhausen was DOMINANT at times, especially during 2002.  Look over the stats and you will see something amazing.  Along with his 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings and low walk rate, he DID NOT ALLOW A HOME RUN in 2002.  Wow.

“The weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong.” Mahatma Gandhi

The Cardinals New Hitting Coach

Mark McGwire finally talked about the past yesterday, and a flood of perfect people have opened the gates to chastise him on their moral high ground.  (/end sarcasm). 

I’ve seen the hour long interview (If you haven’t, you can find the basics through the McGwire’s interview with Bernie Miklasz at the Post Dispatch.).  Costas was fair but strong.  95% of what McGwire said is right on target, and is much better than anyone’s else “confession” from steroids.  There are comments to disagree with to be sure, but everyone is focusing on the negative and not giving any thought to the positive.    

For once, we seem to have someone actually telling the truth about steroids (as opposed to A-Rod, Pettite, Clemens, etc.).  He didn’t say:  “I only did them once to try them” and “What a coincidence I happened to get tested!” 

You may not agree with the timing, but it takes a lot of bravery and moral character to lay it all out like he is doing.  He seems to be telling the truth and his admissions give it plausibility.  McGwire has admitted to using them throughout his career, even through his record breaking 70 home run season. 

He has a great explanation for the 2005 hearings (that I agree with) and there should be great points for telling the truth.  McGwire has shed light on the issue instead of telling ‘just enough’ to get the public off his back.  He seems genuinely sorry for his actions and deserves to have this issue die (after this post).

What are Steroids and Why are They a Problem?
Steroids have proper uses, and are legally administered by doctors to help patients heal more quickly.  This is why your doctor prescribes steroids when you are sick.  Abuse from the drug occurs when someone misuses them to ”self-medicate” injuries or to get stronger.  Not only is this dangerous, but it is illegal due to the long term side affects that can range from mild to life threatening problems.  

Steroids can cause depression or rage,  damage your heart or ligaments and has been linked to some cancers.  That’s a broad and generic definition, but the main issue is that short term gains can cause long term health problems. 

McGwire explained that he took steroids for his myriad of injuries, and did not take them for strength.   He’s not using this for an excuse but for an explanation.  The apologies and anguish he shows in the interview are heart-wrenching, and you can tell that he has suffered greatly from his abuse. 

Does this mean that I condone his actions.  No, he messed up and there are consequences.  He’s paid a great price for hiding this secret, and his admission has been embarrasing and difficult.  He won’t go into the Hall of Fame and a public flogging is tough for anyone to go through.

Performance Enhancement?
The main problem critics are having with the confession is McGwire’s belief that steroids did not help him play better baseball.  I find this hard to understand too, but he isn’t lying.  He truly believes his statement.  Instead of dismissing this issue on its face, let’s see if it has any merit.  The two main advantages of steroids are quicker muscle recovery and healing. 

Maybe McGwire didn’t need steroids for the strength to hit home runs.  He was never a strong doubles hitter that just barely missed the warning track.  He probably would have lost some, but his shots were mamoth and prolific.  Saying this, there are studies that show how increased strength improves home run output (and that steroids can produce this increased strength). 

The main issue is that recovering from the day to day, is part of why he hit all of those home runs each season in the first place.  This is the biggest advantage he received from the drug, and the main reason why he probably wouldn’t have hit 70 without them.

Many people also believe that it makes you quicker to the ball, but this is just a theory.  Strength doesn’t necessarily mean quickness, and McGwire is right that his swing got shorter and he had better mechanics later in his career.  This WAS part of what made him a good hitter.  Dismissing McGwire’s beliefs are just like dismissing beliefs that it COULD have an effect.  PEDs probably make you quicker, but by how much and to what effect is still in doubt.

Now to the final part that hasn’t been explored.  McGwire took steroids long term.  Isn’t it possible that they HELPED him break down?  Remember, he wasn’t taking the new steroids from today, or going through a doctor who specialized in baseball players.  He was taking steroids from a gym.   Yes they may have helped him short term with strength or recovery, but could he have hit MORE home runs over time if he had left the stuff alone? 

You can’t say steroids are bad for you and dismiss this statement out of hand.  McGwire’s physical abilities may have been hurt by his abuse along with his legacy.  This adds another layer of sadness to the issue.  What could McGwire have done without the juice?  600 home runs? A longer career?

Say it Ain’t So
I can see WHY McGwire took steroids.  He was injured a lot in the early 90’s, and it is easy to see why/how he took the wrong path.  He was a gifted athlete that kept breaking down with freak injuries.  Players that didn’t have his talent or work ethic (he was always one of the players who worked the hardest) had greater success, and were passing him up.  He looked for a way out and unfortunately found a shortcut. 

In choosing drugs to help him level the playing field, he did the opposite, and gave himself an unfair advantage.  Anytime you can stay on the field without taking time to heal, and recover more quickly (think day game after a night game), it gives you more opportunity at consistent production.  This isn’t fair to other players who didn’t take the long term risks, and gave him a distinct advantage. 

I can see why people have a hard time with McGwire’s beliefs on his career statistics, but he is entiled to his OPINION.  We don’t have to force him to believe what we think in order to “win” our forgiveness (even if “we” are probably right).  Say you disagree with him and move on.  Don’t make him out to be a terrible person.  He’s not, nor ever has been a terrible person (just ask teammates, friends, charitable organizations and other people around baseball). 

Let the man have his peace.  It’s time to stop the eternal damnation and get on with our lives.  Of course, if he isn’t a good hitting coach, I will be outraged!

Matt Holliday (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

I wish the Cardinals ownership would get off their fat wallets and do some…  (voice from a distance is inaudible)  What is that you say?   (he turns away from they keyboard) They just spent 17 million a year at 7 YEARS for Matt Holliday?  Wow.

Wow is a good place to start when discussing the deal the Cardinals gave Matt Holliday.  The ownership has done their part, now it’s time to roll the dice and see what happens. 

As first reported by Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman on Twitter,  the Cardinals will be paying the perennial All-Star $17 million a year for 7 years with an (unattainable) option for an 8th year at $17 million.  He has to finish in the top 10 of the MVP voting in year 7 (as a 37 year old) to reach the 8th year option.  That’s probably not going to happen, and is in the contract so  Holliday’s agent , Scott Boras can say he has a player option for year 8.

The Specifics
ESPN’s Buster Olney is reporting that the Holliday’s contract in 2010-’16 will actually be $15 million a year annually (present day value) with another $2 million a year in deferred payments (for $17 million total).  He’ll also have a 2017 buyout for around 1 million dollars, for a total contract value of $120 million.

My opinion is that the Cardinals paid what they needed to.  Did they overbid a little bit?  Probably, but not egregiously so.  Many people are saying they bid against themselves, but I don’t buy it.  There was always the option of Holliday changing demands to a 1-2 year contract for over 20 million.  In this scenerio we would have been bidding against the Yankees and Red Sox, and our chances would have shrunk dramatically.   Boras had a few tricks up his sleeve and the Cardinals handled the process well (in my opinion).

Would I rather have Jason Bay and his contract?  Actually, no.  Matt Holliday is a much better player (offensively AND defensively) and will probably age well in comparison. 

Playoff Chances and Needed Parts
This improves the Cardinals playoff chances dramatically.  The central division has probably become worse this off-season, and in some metrics I’ve seen, Holliday’s signing improves our odds by almost 25%.  With the health of the team as a major caveat, the Cardinals should be the division favorites for the next 2-3 years (at least).

With all of the Cardinals dead money easing off of the payroll this year (Greene, Glaus, Wellemeyer, etc.), the flexibility was/is there for 2010-11.  They will be paying around $90-$95 million in salaries for 2010 with only a few needs. 

The club must find a left handed bat off the bench (Ryan Church?), 5th starter (John Smoltz?), third baseman (Joe Crede?), backup centerfielder (Ryan Church?) and possibly a reliever (Kiko Calero?).  Some of these spots will have to be filled from within (David Freese, Joe Mather, Allen Craig, Jamie Garcia, Fernando Salas, Jon Jay?), but you may see another short term contract on a veteran player or two. 

The Future Problems
Things will become difficult in 2012.  The Cardinals will have a lot of money tied up in their top stars, and many of the “cost controlled” players right now (Schumaker, Rasmus, Ludwick, Molina), will be hitting free agency or arbitration.  They won’t be able to keep all of their core players without a significant increase in payroll at this time, and you won’t see any big money free agents (aside from Albert) for awhile.  The Hot Stove League will be pretty cool for the Cardinals over the next 5 years.

So What is Holliday Worth?
The best way I can show you what Matt Holliday is worth is through a statistic called Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  The definition of WAR can be found at Beyond the Boxscore, but in summary

WAR relies on counting stats (HRs, 2Bs, etc.) to be translated into rate stats (OBP, wOBA) and then combines these factors into value stats. The great thing about WAR is that it takes into account a player’s value both at the plate and in the field, adjusting it for position (left field/ 1st base bad, shortstop centerfield good) and park (St. Louis is virtually neutral, but Colorado is not), and compares it to a replacement player. 

They key to the definition is the replacement player.  It is roughly someone who could be called up from the minors for league minimum and do the same job (0 WAR).  How much is the minor league player worth compared to Matt Holliday?  Chuck Brownson from the Hard Ball Times and Viva El Birdos wrote a nice article with a pretty spreadsheet on Matt’s annual value over the life of the contract via a projection system called CHONE:

These are projections (or educated guesses) so anything could happen, but the Cardinals have to use projections to figure out a player’s worth when attempting to sign them.  We might as well use what we have to evaluate the deal.  The caveat is that the Cardinal statistical system is probably better than anything freely available to the public.  I bet their system shows he is worth it. 

The table shows that CHONE thinks Holliday will be worth roughly what the team is paying (though 2015 and 2016 will probably be difficult to stomach). 

The Value of Elite Talent
Some people will say that paying Holliday what he is worth is neither good nor bad (it’s just average), but I disagree.  I think there is a value in elite talent that is difficult to quantify.  For instance, would you rather have Lohse and De Rosa or Holliday and Allen Craig on the roster?  We’ll have both options, but the dollar values are roughly the same.

Holliday/ Craig will be making slightly less each year (over the next 2 years) and will help a team out much more effectively than those two players.  The Cardinals have a good chance to develop talent that replaces Lohse and De Rosa (in the next 2-3 years).  They have next to a zero chance (barring injury) that anyone from the minors will preform like Holliday during that same time period.  He’ll be in decline after that, but could still be a very valuable player (worth more than De Rosa’s WAR estimations in 2010-11 for instance).

All systems are pretty conservative.  They have to take into account injury and the history of how players age, but there is some cause for optimism.  Holliday’s WAR value over the last 4 years was 4.4, 8.0, 6.3, 5.7.  He probably won’t ever match his career year again, but he has a decent chance at 5.7-6.3. 

If Holliday can manage to duplicate what he did last year (5.7), for a year or 2, and age less dramatically than the conservative estimates, we could see a surplus in value that would make this contract a good one.  Of course if Holliday gets injured in year one, or hits like he did in the beginning of 2009 for the A’s, we’ll have our own Barry Zito, Alfonso Soriano or Vernon Wells contract that will hamstring the Cardinals for years. 

Conclusion
As a fan, you have to be optimistic about the signing.  Anything can happen and you can’t dwell on the negatives.  As an added bonus, this should also help us with negotiations for a certain first baseman who’s contract is up after 2011.  Anything that gives us a better chance to keep our future Hall of Famer in Cardinal red for life, is a major plus. 

What do you think?

A Serious Number

My son had a birthday yesterday and reminded me how much I missed Cardinal baseball… with a TV commercial.  He’s been running around the house letting everyone know that “6… is a serious number“.  I’ve taken a brief hiatus from blogging since then end of the season (aside from my hydraulic press blog), but it’s time to get serious.  Could 6 be the key to the Cardinal’s hot stove league season?

The Heat is On
The Cardinals kicked off their free agency by signing Brad Penny to a one year contract.  Penny replaces Joel Pineiro’s innings in the rotation and is an upgrade AND downgrade wrapped into one (round) package.  Penny won’t replicate the season of the ground ball machine circa 2009, but he may be better than Peneiro in 2010.

Penny has one of the best fastballs in the league (his 93.4 MPH average is top five in the league) and will have Dave Duncan’s tutelage without the extra 3-4 years on the contract.  Bill James predicts 12-11, 4.17 ERA, 205 IP for Pineiro and 10-11, 4.01 ERA, 182 IP  for Penny.

A good sign.

A Buyer’s Market
At the beginning of free agency, it looked like the Cardinals didn’t have a chance at re-signing Matt Holliday.  The numbers were scary (and true), like 8 (the number of year’s Scott Boras was wanting), 39 (the age of Matt Holliday the year after an 8 year contract) and 22 (the average annual value that Scott Boras was originally looking for).

Scott Boras was doing what he always does, but for once, the numbers being floated around scared EVERYBODY, even the large market teams.  The Cardinals offered a 5 year 80 million dollar contract (16 million) and the Red Sox followed it up with a 5 year 82.5 million (16.5 million).  Boras turned them both down and watched the market collapse.  The Red Sox went a different way and used their money to sign free agent pitcher John Lackey. 

The Yankees are the elephant in the room that make Scott Boras who he is.  They are always driving up the market, but have not helped Boras this year.  He didn’t count on the trade for Curtis Granderson, and the Yanks have showed a modicum of restraint, holding their budget to around 200 million (though they may still sign Johnny Damon). 

This isn’t just a bluff.  The Yankees cost for free agents aren’t like other clubs due to a steep luxury tax.  They spend a lot of money, but they lose a lot every year too.  If they sign Holliday to 18 million, they are taxed 40%, meaning they are really signing him for 25 million (plus their first round draft pick).  This looks like it is even too rich for their (cold, heartless, greedy) blood.

The smaller market teams are pulling back (aside from Seattle, who signed Chone Figgins), and have become conservative due to the econony.  Mark DeRosa signed a 2 year deal with the Giants (12 million) and Atlanta had to trade Javier Vazquez to cut costs.

The Cardinals have been keeping costs down in years past once they identified Holliday as their target for 2010.  They’ve got enough dry powder to compete with the big boys, especially with the poor economy, but they don’t want to fall into a classic Boras trap.  The only serious player in the hunt for Holliday’s services was the Mets… until they signed Jason Bay to his 4 year 66 million dollar deal (16.5 million per) with a vesting 5th year option for $14 million.

So what do the Cardinals do?   They can’t wait forever on Holliday as they still need a right handed reliever and a backup centerfielder (along with their left field bat).  Contrary to popular belief, their isn’t much of a plan B on the market.

The best player available (not counting Holliday) is Adrian Beltre, and most of his value is through his superb defense at third (think Scott Rolen). Jermaine Dye and Xavier Nady may have intriguing bats, but they give it all back through poor defense in this stage of their career.

The real plan B is Felipe Lopez, who provides a great on base percentage and terrible glove at multiple positions.  He won’t provide any protection for Pujols, or help for our groundball staff, but he would get on base in front of the machine and be a big addition to the offense.  Johnny Damon is the only other impact bat on the market, but he is over priced and a Scott Boras client (making it tough to use him as leverage).

The Cardinals need Holliday and Holliday needs the Cardinals, but if the team increases the value of their offer, they are bidding against themselves.  Unfortunately, Scott Boras will want to save face and he’s not going to take less annual value than Bay.

The Contract
Bay has crystallized the market for Holliday.  To get the deal done, Boras will want an offer of 5 years with a vesting option for a 6th year at almost 16.67 million per year.  The 6th year is the key.  That will get his contract above Bay’s and make him a 100 million dollar player (with the option).  Think 5 years 16.5 million per year with an option year for $17.5 million.  At the very least, he won’t make less than $16.5 million over 6 years.

The 100 million dollar deal wouldn’t be a bad contract, especially in the beginning (Holliday is worth around 24 million next year with most projection systems), but I don’t see how the Cardinals can increase the offer on his contract without someone else pushing the deal. 

The Cardinals have the highest contract on the table at 5 years 80 million (16 million per year) and they would be foolish to increase it without another bidder. That won’t get it done, because it is basically what Bay signed for.  This means that we won’t see a resolution soon.

Without a second team, Holliday will remain unsigned until Spring Training.  The only other option for Boras is to change his tactics and have Holliday sign a 1 year deal to hit the market again next year.  If he did this, you would see the Yankees and Red Sox back into the picture, and the deal would be for over 20 million.  This option will happen before Holliday accepts the 5/80 contract and is the only way I see the Cardinals not ending up with the slugger.

Will the Cardinals increase their offer to get a deal done or will Boras change tactics?  It will be interesting to see who blinks first.