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Wagner Mateo

5. Wagner Mateo, International Signing, 3B/OF, 16: Picked by many scouting services as one of the top 3 international prospects in 2009, the Cardinals shelled out over 3.1 million dollars to sign the 16 year old Dominican prospect. He will have time and room to grow in the Cardinals system, but it will be a while before we see him in Cardinal red (or AA ball for that matter).

The ceiling for Mateo may be the highest in the organization, so many prospect gurus will have him rated higher, but he was born in 1993 so I believe you must temper your expectations. (See Shelby Miller and subtract 2 more years as to why this can be bad.)

Projections get more sketchy the farther out you go, but he has shown a nice ability to hit, with a compact left handed swing and is a scout’s 5 tool dream.

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Unfortunately for the Cardinals Wagner did not pass his physical and the Cardinals have voided his contract. There is speculation of a vision issue and another unknown ailment that caused the Cardinals to back out of the contract that was to pay Mateo a nice signing bonus of over $3 million. Could this money possibly go into the Holliday/Pujols funds. Nobody knows.

What I’m affraid of is the harm this could do to the Cardinals presence in the Dominican. They have a good set up with their new baseball academy in the Dominican and having Albert Pujols, but let’s hope the handling of the Mateo contract doesn’t hurt future relationships. International signings are more like college recruiting rather than professional drafts we are used to seeing in the US. Teams build their Internationals Baseball Academy’s in order to recruit the best talent and hope to strike gold with the next great baseball star. If Dominican baseball players look at the Cardinals voiding Mateo’s contract in a negative light, then this could cause future players to avoid the Cardinals academy.

I understand the Cardinals had to do what was right for their organization, but I hope the rest of the Dominican athletes feel the same way about how the Mateo situation was handled.

On a side note, tickets for the NLDS and NLCS went on sale today. I’ve purchased some tickets to sell and try to make a profit on to cover my own playoff ticket expense, so if you’re interested in any playoff tickets, post a reply and I’ll get you my inventory for the NLDS and NLCS. You’ll definitely save money over buying on stubhub or ebay.

Will Matt Holliday Lead the Cardinals to the Playoffs? (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

Evaluating the Trades So Far
The Cardinals are fun to watch again.

A team that was having trouble scoring runs can now hit and pitch with the best teams in baseball.  The recent moves have really been paying off… so far.  Is the short term gains worth what we’ve given up?

The team has been on a roll and is 11-6 since acquiring Holliday. Lugo has batted 64 times with a .362/ .397/ .603/ 1.000 slash line*, giving us middle infield depth that we were lacking and a reliable bat against left handed pitching.

DeRosa hasn’t been on base a lot, but he’s had big hits and has been slugging the ball with authority: .226/ .291/ .495/.786.   This has been a big improvement over what we were trotting out to play third base before, and has given our lineup some real depth.  Look for the home runs to drop but the on base percentage to go up.

Ted Williams Holliday has been unreal and has batted .470/ .506/ .788/ 1.294 since the trade.  He’s given us better team speed and has played plus defense to go along with his big bat.   He won’t hit like this forever, but he’s one of the top players in the league and he’s been enjoyable to watch.

These players have unquestionably made the Cardinals better in 2009.  Is it worth it?  What if we don’t make the playoffs or sign our pending free agents (no).  What if we win the World Series but still lose our free agents (Yes, Flags fly forever).  What if we don’t make the playoffs but are able to sign Holliday? (Probably)

The Cost of Trades
Brett Wallace will be good.  He will also be a cheap source of run production for 6 years after he makes his major league debut.  That adds a TON of value to a team.  Does everyone remember when Albert was making league minimum and putting up Hall of Fame numbers? Shudder.

The only problem Wallace has had in the minors (aside from below average defense at third) is that his power has been down this year.  He is young, has a lot of time to develop, and still projects as a great player in the majors.  Will he be an All-Star?  He’s got a good shot, but a lot of that depends on if he sticks at 3rd base or ends up at first.

Either way, his ceiling is high and we will miss him.  He’s got a chance to be “Danny Haren” good, but he could also end up the next “Daric Barton” (who?).  Somewhere in between is where he will probably end up and if we don’t make the playoffs or sign Holliday, the Mulder trade will have some serious competition.

Clayton Mortenson, Shane Peterson, Jess Todd and Chris Duncan are not A level prospects, but all have value and could have helped balance the Cardinal’s future budget.  Out of the 4, Todd could be helping the Cardinal bullpen right now.  He projects to be a decent middle reliever.

Chris Perez is the wildcard.  If he becomes a closer (his strikeouts per 9 are outstanding) he will be tough to lose.  Closers are hard to find, expensive and the man possess great stuff.  If he becomes a good middle reliever (his walks per nine innings are a concern) then he will be expendable.  It all depends on if he can develop more control.

Free Agency Isn’t Free
So what’s good about this trade, besides the obvious gain of helping our team make the playoffs this year and giving us a better shot at another ring?  Do these trades possibly make us better into the next decade?

Payroll is fluid with the Cardinals.  It’s not always going to be 100 million dollars, nor should it be.  They don’t like to make bets on players that are overpriced talents (Alfonso Soriano) and are always looking for complete players (defense, running, hitting, good player in the clubhouse).  That’s why you see them pick up the scrap players or reclamation projects that are cheap (Khalil Greene, Todd Wellenmeyer) or the players that fall through the cracks (Kyle Loshe) instead of always going for the best player on the market.

They want to save their “dry powder” for players like Scott Rolen, Larry Walker, Chris Carpenter, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Jim Edmonds, Mark McGwire.  When the Cardinals go “All In”, you can bet that they aren’t doing it with a 7-2 offsuit.  They are making a calculated risk.

That is why it was foolish to look at the Cardinals payroll this year and say that the Cardinals were cheapskates.  Yes the payroll was down, but there wasn’t anything on the market that could have made them appreciably better.  If they would have spent money just to appease the fans, they would have ended up with a lot of dead weight (Edgar Renteria, Milton Bradley, John Smoltz, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny) or overpriced talent (A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixera, C.C. Sabathia).

St. Louis:  THE Holiday Destination
But we are the Cardinals, doesn’t everyone want to sign with us for less than they are worth?  Who wouldn’t want to play for a team with temperate humid climate that is close to an ocean a river with one of the best worst night lives in the major leagues?  We’re the Yankees Cardinals, so we can outbid all of the large mid market teams like the Mets, Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Tigers, White Sox, Reds and Pirates.  Plus we have an Arch!

This is a common misconception that our fans have.  One of the ideas that people don’t seem to realize is that good free agents have their pick of where to go.  It’s not a fantasy league and we aren’t the 1st pick of most players.  We can’t just pick the free agent and he will automatically sign with us.  Brian Fuentes is a great example.  We outbid the Angels for him, but he wanted to play closer to his home town in California.  There is nothing you can do about this, so the fans that complain are off base.

A great fanbase and winning history are nice, but players look for other things.  How much money can I make there, is the city close to my home town, will they win with me there, what kind of endorsements can I make there, would my wife and kids like living there, will my girlfriend, how much money will I make there, what is there to do in the city, do I like playing there, do I have any friends on the team, how much money will I make there?

Resigning Holliday
A trade like Holliday does a few things that help in resigning him.  He builds friendships, the family gets used to the area and he can see how he will fit in with the team.  Instead of having to bid the most amount of money, we have a time period where we aren’t bidding against everyone.  If we are around the amount he thinks he can get, we don’t have to OUTBID for him.  We can sign him BEFORE he reaches free agency and the Yankees and Red Sox come calling.

This is a HUGE reason for trading a player before free agency.  This doesn’t mean that we can pay him a lot less money, but it does mean that we can try to agree on how much he is worth BEFORE other teams start increasing that total. This is important.  The Cardinals chances of signing a difference maker (Holliday) went from 5% to 60% or more.  It’s not a sure thing, but they are playing the percentages (which worked for McGwire, Rolen, Edmonds, etc.).

The Cardinals may have made a good bet, but that doesn’t mean it will work out.  Even if we don’t sign Holliday, it is best to put your “future” blinders on and enjoy the season.  It has been fun to watch so far, and you don’t have many chances as fans to see a team this good.

Chad James

My posts have been sporadic to say the least but the blog has certainly been in great hands.  I have been doing quite a bit of research concerning the draft.

Chad James is the  name I keep hearing with the St. Louis Cardinals at number 19.  When watching his video on MLB, it is obvious there is a lot to like.  Projectable lefties that throw in the mid-nineties are a valuable commodity.   I found this interview with the southpaw done this past March.

The Cardinals got to see him up close and personal this past October during the Wood Bat Tournament.  The star-studded affair took place at Roger Dean Stadium and James pitched in a rotation with projected first rounders Tyler Matzek and Shelby Miller.

Remember, the Cardinals have strong ties in James’ native Oklahoma so don’t be surprised if the team pops another Okie prep like it did in 2007.  Another video of James can be found here. And here.

Jonathan Mayo posted his mock draft earlier today.  He has Grant Green falling to the Cardinals.  Considered a top five pick coming into the season, Green, who has suffered with a bout of “draftitis” along with being a Boras client, has seen his stock fall.  Even though he struggled, he finished the season with a line of .374/.435/.569.  Baseball America rated him as the number 1 prospect in last summer’s Cape Cod League and we all know the Cardinals place in high regard players that have played on the Cape.  Depending on his asking price, I think I could get really excited about Green being the choice.  A potential left side of the infield of Green and Brett Wallace is something all Cardinal fans can get excited about.

Video of Grant Green

Another name to be familiar with is Chad Jenkins.  A right-hander out of Kenesaw State, he seems to fit the mold the Cardinals look for.  A big body pitcher with a heavy sinker.  Think Lance Lynn.

Video of Kenesaw State’s Chad Jenkins (Double Click to see full-size)

Dustin Mattison

dustin@whiteyball.com

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Todd Wellemeyer

April began with a troubled bull pen and a offensive display that was most impressive.  The starting pitching was good with a few exceptions and late April saw a very impressive stretch of baseball that had Cardinal fans thinking this team was going to leave the rest of the central in the dust.

Then the May showers came.  The bull pen has been good, the offense and starting pitching have sputtered and the team is now in third place, two games behind the Brewers – what the hell?  It’s baseball and a quick wake up call for those of us with illusions of grandeur.  And don’t forget about the Reds and Astros folks…

The feel good stories of Barden and Thurston feel more like players that have been over exposed, although one might ask why after winning rookie of the month, Barden only had seven at bats during the last road trip?  Don’t get we wrong, I still like both, but they’re not everyday players.  K. Greene’s struggles have led to more playing time for first round pick T. Greene and perhaps even B. Ryan.  K. Greene’s huge year is looking more and more like a career offering and his defense has been less than advertised this year.  I like that Tony is seeing what the kids can do, but wonder what a player like Christian Guzman would look like wearing red?

Now one must point to the fact that losing Ludwick and Ankiel will/has led to some of the offensive woes, but really, Ludwick was the only one hitting.  Getting Ludwick back in the lineup will be a huge boost, but it still needs another power stick.  Duncan could be that stick, but the power is noticeably absent.  Personally, before a trade is made, I’d like to see what Brett Wallace can do at this level.  Can it really be any worse than what we’re currently getting from Thurston/Barden?  Chances are Wallace will struggle at first, but there are only a handful of prospects we see every so many years that handle the initial transition.  Pujols never looked back, Colby’s doing ok.  Let’s also remember Wallace went from college ball to AA in less than a year, and did more than fine.  If it doesn’t work, he’s humbled and sent back down to work on it.  But if he does…the offense looks much different.  If Glaus is able to come back, work him in and even better.

The starting pitching is a different matter.  Wainwright should be ok, I’ll hold my breathe every time Carp goes out and Lohse will be fine, if not what a #3 should be.  The questions surrounding Wellemeyer and Pineiro are greater.  Wellemeyer sports a 5.87 era and Pineiro is hovering around a low 4.17.  I’m not advocating a move here, but Wellemeyer has to be better than his seven walks yesterday and Pineiro seems to be trending down after riding his World Baseball Classic issues (I’m not going to call it a snub because the guys that took the rotation spots were better).

Again, I’m not saying we need to go sign Pedro, but if a few things don’t get sorted out in May and no moves are made, things will be interesting.  I’ve resigned myself to the fact that this team will hang around and hopefully be in a position to make one of those famous Tony September runs – let’s just hope we’re close enough.

Clark

Brian Barden

So just who is this Brian Barden dude anyway?  After the first two weeks he has folks saying Miles who (along with Thurston) with highlight defense and flashes of power nobody expected.  Granted, it’s two weeks into the season, but you have to like what you see.

Barden was a sixth round draft pick out of Oregon State in 2002, earning California League all-star honors, hitting .335 in 64 games (eight homers, .502 slugging, .872 OPS).  From there he just seemed to sputter and projections changed from hot prospect to maybe a utility player with some pop, an ok glove and a .280 or so average.

It’s safe to say he isn’t going to hit .400 this year, but .300 looks like a possibility, along with a great glove and some pop, he’s going to do just fine in the Miles role for this team.

TWO HANDS DUNCAN!

I’m sorry, I really like Chris Duncan, but I need someone to explain to me why he insists on using one hand to try and catch balls in the OF.  I can’t remember if it was the Thursday or Friday game against the Cubs, but he butchered a ball he would have caught if he used two hands.

It gave me horror flash backs to the final game of the ‘06 series when he dropped two balls, BECAUSE HE ONLY USED ONE HAND.  I get he’s in the line up for his stick, but that’s no excuse for not playing fundamental baseball.  He rates as an average (really), just above actually OF.  I can live with a missed ball on a dive or tough play, Chris came up as a firstbaseman, but not a can of corn.  LaRussa and Co. are fundamentals freaks – I simply don’t understand why he can’t look at Dunc and say, the next time you drop a ball trying to catch it with one hand, I’m gonna bench your ass…

Clark

T.J. Oshie

What a fantastic day for Missouri sports yesterday!  I attended the St. Louis Blues hockey game last night versus Vancouver and was struck by how much energy and passion this young team had.  A sellout crowd gave the building a playoff atmosphere with constant cheering and chanting.  Cries of “We Want Playoffs” and “Ohhhh Sheee” permeated through the building, enticing me to take part in the electric atmosphere.

To be honest, I had written off hockey the last few years.  I still follow the team through the Post Dispatch, but I had not been to a game all season.  Hanging out at the game with a good friend, slapping five after a goal, and cheering every dramatic play, reminded me of how great sports can be.

The Blues will be an exciting team to watch in years to come with their “kid line”.  Peron and Berglund have a chance to be all-stars, and Oshie could be transcendent.  He was the best player on the ice last night, and his combination of skill, energy, moves, speed and hitting is going to be special to watch.  What a talent!  The Backes shorthanded goal was beautiful, but Oshie’s dekes and creativity to score the Blue’s first score might have been the best goal I have ever seen live.  It was that good.

After the game, I was able to catch most of the second half of the Mizzou game.  These kids have come a long way from the dark days of the program just 3 short years ago.  What Mike Anderson has done is phenomenal and deserving of coach of the year honors.  He outcoached the more experienced Calipari from Memphis and designed a game plan that showed why this team deserves their lofty plaudits.  The Tigers basketball team plays an exciting brand of basketball and it will be interesting to see how far they go in the NCAA tournament.

As an aside, when was the last time Missouri Football and Basketball have ended the season in the top 25?  It is a great time to be a Mizzou fan.

What do these teams have in common with the Cardinals?  Both of them rely heavily on kids and the Cardinals will be no different this year.  These young players will provide an energy and spirit that will further endear us to our team.  I believe a player that comes up through our system makes us more invested in how they do. We have a plethora of homegrown starters already with us.  Just look at all the players, brought up from our minor leagues, who will be starting for the Cardinals:  Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel, Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, David Freese/Joe Mather, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright.

Others playing significant roles include: Jason Motte, Josh Kinney, Chris Perez, Colby Rasmus, Kyle McClellen and Brendan Ryan.  We have exciting prospects on the horizon that could see big league time this year, consisting of Brett Wallace, Darrell Jones, Jon Jay, Jess Todd, Brian Anderson, Tyler Greene, Brian Barden, Brian Barton, Blake Hawksworth and Mitchell Boggs.

These kids will pave the way for the Cardinals to be competitive for years to come and I’m looking forward to seeing their growth and accomplishments.  I hope they will find similar success to the young players on the Blues and Mizzou teams.  We are in for an exciting year if they do.

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Photo courtesy of the AP

Gregerson was ranked as the number 37 prospect in the Cardinals’ system after striking out 78 in 75 innings to go along with 10 saves at Double-A Springfield. The 24-year-old was named the Venezuelan Winter League’s Setup Man of the Year after allowing only a 0.82 ERA in 22 innings.

The Cardinals originally drafted Gregerson in the 28^th round of the 2006 MLB First Year Player Draft.

  Walking along side Amaury Marti.

Colby racks up more honors.  Another former first rounder wins but struggles.  Yet another first rounder gets a step closer to returning to full season baseball while another first rounder has a first at Memphis. 

Colby Rasmus earned multiple honors for the week.  The 21 year old was named the Texas League Offensive Player of the Week and also was Number 1 on Baseball America’s Prospect Hot Sheet. 

 Notice that Milb.com errors in calling him a catcher:

Texas League
Colby Rasmus, Springfield
.611 (11-18), 7 R, 0 3B, 3 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 1 SO, 0 SB, 1.111 SLG

Cardinals catcher Colby Rasmus had two more hits than any other player in the Texas League this past week, and his three doubles and seven runs scored tied him for the league lead in that span. The catch? The 21-year-old did all of that in just four games. Rasmus was hit in the first game of the week and did not bat in the rest of the contest. He returned to bat .611 with a 1.111 slugging percentage to finish the week, though. The native of Columbus, Ga., seems to be returning to form. After a torrid May, he batted a mediocre .203 through June and July, but Rasmus is hitting .396 in August. 

From Baseball America:  With all the other 2005 high school first-round outfielders stepping up their play–Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin in the big leagues, Jay Bruce holding his own in Triple-A–Rasmus is the latest to hit a second gear. Rasmus batted .611 with a pair of home runs last week, improving his overall numbers to .260/.373/.507 with 21 homers for Springfield.
Even more impressive is the fact that Rasmus is doing it in a playoff race–Springfield, who won the first half in the Texas League’s North Division, is tied for first place with Arkansas with 16 games remaining in the regular season. And seven of those games are against the Travelers.

More on Rasmus from Kevin Goldstein’s Future Shock:  (Only an excerpt):  Rasmus was a 2005 first-round pick as a high school center fielder who was pushed to Double-A…he struggled at times, showing plenty of power and speed but also keeping his batting average hovering around .250 with plenty of strikeouts…Rasmus is finishing the year with a flourish, going 9-for-14 over the weekend with three doubles and pair of home runs. Now hitting .396/.522/.830 in 16 August games, Rasmus is hitting .267/.378/.520 in 114 games…with 22 home runs and 16 stolen bases. While his hitting skills continue to improve, his power, speed, range, and arm are all above-average, and with the progress Rasmus has made, the post-Edmonds era in the middle of the Cardinals outfield could start as early as next year.

The Cardinals got a much needed win in the final game of the series.  The team looked awful the first 2 games but got the bats going today.  Albert and Ankiel both went deep.  The bullpen was tremendous.  Ryan Franklin allowed 1 baserunner in 1.2 innings while Izzy allowed 2 baserunners while picking up the save.  Even after the Cards were roughed up in the first 2 games, the Cardinals only lost .5 games in the standings over the weekend. 

Anyone else holding his breath when a ball wass hit to the outfield in the late innings?  It is ridiculous that the game continues when the outfielders are splashing to get to the ball.  That is an injury waiting to happen.  I bet Eli Marrero would agree. 

Why do you replace a stadium that has gone through major renovations, has what seems to be a quality drainage system, and has seen more World Series winners than any other  but not a dump that has a tradition of losing?  Wrigley Field is a joke. 

Memphis 4 Iowa (Cubs) 5

Chris Perez blew his first save for Memphis.  Perez struggled with his control, walking 2 of the first 3 batters and then giving up a 3-run walkoff HR to Josh Kroeger.  Mike Smith was shaky as usual, giving up 4 runs in 5 innings. Tagg Bozied had 2 hits including his 24th HR.  Jarrett Hoffpauir had a hit and an RBI.  Joe Mather went 2-4. 

Here is a humurous article about “Joey Bombs”, as he is known in Springfield, and his first trip to Memphis and life in Triple A.

Springfield 4 Corpus Christi (Astros) 8

The Cardinals gave up 7 in the seventh to let this game get away. Mitch Boggs gave up 3 runs on 5 hits in 6 innings. Mike Sillman gave up 5 of those runs in only 0.2 innings.  For the first time since moving to the leadoff spot, Colby did not get a hit to start the game. He did have a hit but he also struck out 3 times.  Rico Washington had 2 hits and has provided a little spark since his return.  Reid Gorecki has not as he put up an 0-4 with 3 Ks and is hitting .087.  Mark Hamilton collected 2 hits. 

Palm Beach 9 Vero Beach (Devil Rays)  2 Game 1

Adam Ottavino got the win, but really struggled getting it.  The former first rounder gave up 2 runs in 5 innings, but walked 6 while only striking out 2.  A.J. Van Slyke had a double and 3 RBIs.  Mark Shorey had 2 hits, an RBI, and 2 runs scored.  Brandon Yarbrough had 2 hits including a 2-run HR.  Allen Craig had 2 hits, an RBI, and 3 runs scored.

Palm Beach 1 Vero Beach (Devil Rays) 6 Game 2

After putting up big offensive numbers in the first game, the Cardinals were only able to muster 2 hits in the night cap.  Jim Rapoport did not have a hit but walked twice and scored a run.  It doesn’t seem like I have put Rapoport’s name in an update in a long time.  Luke Gorsett and Dan Nelson each had a double to account for the only hits.  Stu Pomerantz made his season debut at Palm Beach and got really roughed up.  Pomerantz gave up 5 runs on 6 hits including 3 HRs in 2.2 innings. 

Quad Cities and Clinton (Rangers) were rained out.

Batavia 2 Mahoning Valley (Indians) 3

The Muckdogs got 3 in the eighth thanks to a wild pitch and then a 2 run triple by Daniel Descalso, who also singled.   Domnit Bolivar had the only other hit.  Thomas Eager struck out 6 in 3 innings to pick up his first victory.  Josh Dew picked up his 12th save. 

Johnson City 7 Bristol (White Sox) 4 Game 1

Pete Kozma moved to the 3 spot and responded with 2 hits, a walk, and 2 runs scored.  Jon Edwards went 2-5 with 2 runs scored and 5 RBIs including a 3-run HR, his seventh.  Travis Mitchell had 2 more hits and his average stands at .303.   Andres Rosales gave up 1 run on 6 hits while striking out 8 in 4 innings.

Johnson City 3 Bristol (White Sox) 4 Game 2

Pete Kozma was back in the leadoff spot and went 0-2 but did walk twice.  Mike Folli hit his fourth HR, a 3-run blast.  Omar Javier gave up 4 in 4.2 innings to pick up the loss.

GCL Cardinals 4 GCL Marlins 5

Mark McCormick got another rehab start, pitching 2 perfect innings.  The concern here is McCormick, a supplemental first round pick in 2005,  had no strikeouts.  Scott Thomas had a pinch hit and 2 RBIs.  Brian Buck also had a hit and 2 RBIs. 

I am doing a little research for a couple items I am working on while I was watching the Yankee/Angels game.  Do you realize the Cardinals passed on Phil Hughes in the 2004 Draft and selected Chris Lambert?

Blake Dewitt returned to the lineup in high fashion.  Blake went 1-4 with a 2 run HR that proved to be the game winner.   Dewitt had missed a couple games due to a hamstring injury.

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