Spring Training

Does your perception match reality when it comes to Spring Training?  A quick look at the statistics this morning made me a little surprised at what I found.  I read quite a bit about spring training, but usually only take a glancing view of the statistics.  Mostly this is because Spring Training stats don’t necessarily add up to a good season, but partly because I feel I get good coverage reading about the Cardinals on a daily basis.

How would you do?  Take a few minutes to answer the following Spring Training Trivia questions and see how many you get right (answers are after the jump):

Let’s play Cardinal Spring Training Trivia!

Questions:
1.  Who is leading the Cardinals in on base percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS)?
2.  Which player is leading the team in on base percentage with a minimum 35 AB?
3.  Who has a better OPS (On base percentage plus slugging percentage); Colby Rasmus or Chris Duncan?
4.  Who leads the Cardinal pitchers in strikeouts?
5.  Which Cardinal has given up 7 home runs?
6.  What relief pitcher has pitched 10 1/3 innings with an  ERA of 0.87?
7.  Kyle McClellan has a Spring ERA of 9.00.  What is his record?
8.  Joe Thurston, Brian Barden and Brendan Ryan are all fighting for the last spot on the team  Who has the worst OPS?
9.  Aside from Khalil Greene’s ridiculous spring (.418 BA, .438 OBP, .552 SLG), what hitter is running a close second for the ‘Cardinals MVP’ during Spring Training?
10.  Which two pitchers lead the team in losses (tied with 2)

Answers after the jump:

Now let’s see how many you get right.

Answers:
1.  Technically this is Allen Craig.  He hit .444/.531/.667 before being sent down (with only 27 at bats).

2.  Khalil Greene has an OBP of .438 (He had a .260 OBP last year)

3.  Colby Rasmus has a better OPS.  Rasmus (.795 OPS), Chris Duncan (.777 OPS).
Perception has been that Chris Duncan has hit well this spring.  After a fast start, he has cooled off considerably, while Rasmus has been hot.  I’ve been beating the drum that Rasmus should start the season in the minors.  While I still see a ton of merit in this, I have to admit that he has outplayed Duncan this spring and has earned a starting spot.  (I still think he should start the season in the minors if he is going to be a bench player, but that is another argument.)

4.  Joel Piniero has 20 K’s and 4 BBs with a 1.44 ERA.  (he had 81 K’s in 148 2/3 IP last year)

5.  Kyle Loshe, who has otherwise been pretty good (4.56 ERA isn’t bad when you’re given up 2.45 HR/9)

6.  I would have thought this low ERA belonged to Jason Motte (He has been almost as good with a 1.74 ERA in 10 1/3 IP with 15K/1 BB and 4/4 on saves), but instead it is Josh Kinney (0.87 ERA, 10 1/3 IP, 11 K 4 BB, 2/2 saves)

7.  Amazingly, Kyle McClellan is 3-0 with that 9.00 ERA

8.  Brendan Ryan has a .627 OPS, but Thurston is not far behind with a .674 mark.  Brian Barden is hitting .385/ .442/ .538.  Brendan Ryan is hitting .273/ .294/ .333 and Joe Thurston is hitting .250/ .333/ .341.  Barden is hitting the best (by far) but is likely going to begin the season in the minors because Ryan is out of options and Thurston hits left handed.

9.  Rick Ankiel is hitting .346/ .422/ .538, is leading the team with 3 HR and is tied for second (with Rasmus) with 11 walks

10.  Adam Wainwright and Trevor Miller have 2 losses

Complete Spring Training Stats

Photo Courtesy of Dustin Mattison

Skip at 2nd base

With the recent call up of David Freese from minor league camp, and Skip Schumaker’s improvement at second base, I think the Cardinals have almost set their roster for 2009. Surprises can always occur (especially with Barden in the infield and Perez in the bullpen), but I think the players are pretty well decided, with opening day just around the corner.  I’ve updated my roster predictions below.

Schumaker is still not ready to play every day at the position, but it looks like he will get a chance to learn on the job.  Our newest blogger, Paul Dobbins was scouting for Whiteyball in Spring Training last week.  He paid special attention to the Skip Schumaker experiment, and got the impression that he still looked tentative and unsure of himself.

He is making the routine plays, and has cut down on the errors, but you can see where there is continual room for improvement.  You must look past the obvious stats to see miscues that don’t show up in the box scores.  Taking a step in the wrong direction, or “just” missing a double play are still routine for him, and it will cost this team games in 2009.  I firmly believe that he can be our future second basemen, but it will take at least a year for him to become even passable on the major league level.

It also looks like Rasmus will break camp with the team this year. (Cardinal Fandom and Bloggers rejoice!).  Unless they pull a surprise move and start him over Duncan, I think this is a mistake. Rasmus needs regular at bats, whether it be Triple A or the majors. Being the 4th outfielder (or 4 1/2 half with Skip), is a waste of what he can bring, gives him one less less year before free agency AND slows his development. It is the worst of both worlds in my opinion.

La Russa is great at getting all of his players at bats, so it won’t be a total lost year (and he will play in over 100 games, due to defensive prowess), but 300 plate appearances are not enough in the development process, and certainly not worth 600 relatively inexpensive plate appearances in 2015. Don’t get me wrong, he has picked up the pace, and probably deserves a spot on the 2009 team.  He will still make this team better, but only marginally so, and that’s not worth the opportunity cost of what we are giving up for 300 PA.

Catchers
Yadier Molina
Jason LaRue

Infielders
Albert Pujols
Khalil Greene
Skip Schumaker (also OF)
Joe Thurston
Brendan Ryan
David Freese
Joe Mather (also OF)

Outfielders
Rick Ankiel
Ryan Ludwick
Chris Duncan
Colby Rasmus

Starting Pitchers
Adam Wainwright
Kyle Lohse
Todd Wellemeyer
Chris Carpenter
Joel Pineiro

Relief Pitchers
Ryan Franklin
Dennys Reyes
Trever Miller
Kyle McClellan
Jason Motte (closer)
Josh Kinney
Brad Thompson

Opening Day lineup (vs. a left hander):

Schumaker 2B
Ludwick OF
Pujols 1B
Ankiel OF
Greene SS
Molina C
Mather LF
Wainwright P
Ryan 3B (after opening day, this will be a platoon with Freese, Mather and Ryan)

vs. righties
Schumaker 2b (Thurston/Ryan substitute in the 6th)
Duncan LF (Rasmus/ Schumaker platoon and substitute often after the 6th)
Pujols OF
Ankiel OF
Ludwick OF
Greene SS
Molina C
Pitcher
Freese/Mather/Thurston/Ryan 3B (Platoon)

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