On Saturday afternoon at 3:00 PM Central, the United Cardinal Blogger Radio Hour, will have the Cardinals minor league director John Vuch on as a guest on another special edition of the show. Dustin from Whiteyball and Nick from Pitchers Hit Eighth will quiz him about St. Louis’s farm system and who we should keep an eye on this season.

You can also download the podcast by going to iTunes and searching for the United Cardinal Bloggers

The United Cardinal Bloggers have been in existence since 2007 and work together on various projects and discussions.  The UCB Radio Hour came out of that in 2008, providing yet another forum for talking Cardinal baseball.

The United Cardinal Bloggers are kicking off their annual Top 7 Cardinal prospect list for 2010.  I’ve decided that 7 isn’t enough to show the breadth of the system, so I’m making a top 10 list with “honorable mentions” of those who were considered.  Plus, this site is about baseball, prospects and a little more.  I rarely write about prospects due to Dustin Mattison’s expertise as a certified scout.  It’s about time I contribute my (relatively amateur) opinion to the discussion.

With the absence of many of last year’s banner crop of Colby Rasmus, Brett Wallace, Chris Perez, Jess Todd and Jason Motte, this list “ain’t what she used to be”.  That doesn’t mean that there aren’t intriguing players in the system. The Cardinals still have quality organizational depth, even if the upper crust is not near the 2009 quality. We are still far removed from the dark ages of the system’s early 2000’s.  Saying that, Wallace and Todd would have made this system elite.

Jamie Garcia courtesy of chrisoleary.com

1.  Jamie Garcia, AAA, SP: Many bloggers will have a certain number 1 draft pick from the 2009 draft ahead of the man named ‘Heime’, but I believe his minor league body of work and domination after injury should make him the top prospect on any Cardinal list. 

He, along with Shelby Miller, are the only two Cardinal pitchers with the chance of being a top of the rotation starter.  Garcia is comparitively further along with a little less upside but he get’s bonus points for pitching from the sinister side. 

Coming off of Tommy John surgery, he has been lights out in his comeback late this year, and even better in the AAA playoffs.  He should at least achieve mid-rotation status, and is the best candidate to be the Cardinals number 5 starter in 2010.

Shelby Miller (Photo by Tommy Metthe/Abilene Reporter-News)

2.  Shelby Miller, Rookie League-SP:  The ‘Chosen One’ was drafted in 2009 to fill the gap of power throwing, top of the rotation, high ceiling starting pitcher.  He’s all of that, and his potential is real, but he still needs a lot of time to develop.  As with most top prospects, a lot can go wrong from now until the majors.  He just has more time for something bad to happen than a top tier AA or AAA prospect. 

Starting pitching prospects with 95-98 mile an hour fastballs don’t grow on trees though, and he’s got a lot of time to develop into a monster pitcher.  His secondary stuff isn’t that bad for his age group and he’s shown a bulldog approach and poise on the mound. 

A great gamble by the Cardinals, but it is still a gamble. 

Darryl Jones (Courtesy Dustin Mattison)

3.  Darryl Jones, AA, OF: The ‘tool shed’ has taken a step back after a monster campaign as a 21 year old in A and AA ball.  He’s shown speed, plate discipline, defense, a good arm and a modicum of power, as he has surged through the minors at a young age. 

Along with Brett Wallace, he represented the team well in the future games, but was set back after the All-Star break with an injury.  He’s still young enough to develop into more than a fourth outfielder in the major leagues, but you’d like to see the 2008 power return in AAA next year.  If all goes right, he could be a future leadoff hitter for the Cardinals with good defense.

Is he the player from 2008 that scouts and stat heads love, or the proverbial 5 tool scout player that never lives up to his potential?

Lance Lynn (Scout.com)

4.  Lance Lynn, AA, SP: The 2nd round draft choice from 2009 has played well in the minors at an appropriate age at each level.  Does he have top of the rotation potential?  Probably not. 

His ceiling isn’t great, but neither is his floor.  He has a low nineties fastball with good sink and a solid slider.  He’s still working on his third pitch (curve or changeup), but should become a decent 3-4 starting rotation guy or dominant middle reliever. 

Lynn has pitched well everywhere he has played and has yet to struggle, so he could surprise.

Wagner Mateo

5. Wagner Mateo, International Signing, 3B/OF, 16: Picked by many scouting services as one of the top 3 international prospects in 2009, the Cardinals shelled out over 3.1 million dollars to sign the 16 year old Dominican prospect.  He will have time and room to grow in the Cardinals system, but it will be a while before we see him in Cardinal red (or AA ball for that matter).

The ceiling for Mateo may be the highest in the organization, so many prospect gurus will have him rated higher, but he was born in 1993 so I believe you must temper your expectations.  (See Shelby Miller and subtract 2 more years as to why this can be bad.) 

Projections get more sketchy the farther out you go, but he has shown a nice ability to hit, with a compact left handed swing and is a scout’s 5 tool dream.

Eduardo Sanchez (Scout.com)

6.  Eduardo Sanchez, AA, RP:  He has electric stuff with a mid nineties fastball and a good breaking ball.  He dominated AA at a young age and shows the competitive fire of a possible closer.  

Even with the trading of our top right handed relief, the Cardinals have shown the ability to find and develop this type of player.  While nobody in the system has the upside of Chris Perez.  Sanchez and a few others have a chance to be very good. 

Sanchez could help the Cardinals as early as next year.

Casey Mulligan (Scout.com)

7.  Casey Mulligan AA, RP:  Mulligan is another player that the Cardinals have turned from catcher to pitcher, but he has done so at an earlier age.  He has not disappointed with the conversion. 

Mulligan is armed with a low to mid nineties fastball, solid changeup and curveball (some scouts have referred to his third pitch as a forkball).  He also features two arm angles, over the top and side arm.  What gets everyone excited is that his strikeouts per nine innings are off the charts at age 21. 

He’s a young middle reliever with upside, and one to watch.

Robert Scock (Scout.com)

8.  Robert Stock Rook-A, C:  The Cardinals second round pick out of USC acquitted himself well to the low levels of the minor leagues.  He’s got a great pedigree as the 2005 Baseball America Youth Player of the Year, but he struggled in his last season in college (Thus, the reason why he fell to the second round). 

Stock has an intriguing fallback option in his path to the majors, as he was additionally a top college pitching prospect with a lively arm.  The Cardinals have a lot of experience in this conversion and he was drafted by the right team to take full advantage of whatever potential he holds.

So far, that doesn’t need to be explored, as great hitting catchers are very valuable.  He has hit well as a 19 year old in rookie ball and has time to develop into a top prospect.

David Freese (Mattison)

9.  David Freese, AAA, 3B:  He has hit at every level in the minor leagues and plays a very good third base.  Starting the season on the Cardinal roster, he lost almost the entire season to a myriad of injuries, but has come back strong. 

So why isn’t he higher on this list?  He’s old for a prospect and doesn’t have a high ceiling.  He could be an average major league third baseman, with good defense and a little pop, but he’s probably not going to be more than that.  If he reaches his potential, a few cost controlled years of that production does hold nice value.

Who wants to be a Cardinal? I do! (Mattison)

10.  Allen Craig (AAA, OF/1B/DH?):  There is no question that the man can hit, but can he field?  Probably best at 1B, there is a small roadblock to his path to the majors in St. Louis. 

He can also play a little corner outfield and third base in a pinch, but does not have the defense you want at third for a starter, and he’ll have to continue to progress as a hitter to be a corner outfielder. 

So what’s to like?  He has hit everywhere he has played and isn’t too old for a prospect in AAA.  He’s probably already better than 3-4 players the Cardinals currently employ in St. Louis and is cost controlled.  He could/ should be a valuable utility man/ pinch hitter in the coming years.

Honorable mentions: Fernando Salas (AAA, RP, 24, 3.43 ERA), Jon Jay (AAA, CF, 24, .732 OPS) Mark Hamilton (AA-AAA, 1B, 24, .927 OPS), Daniel Descalso (AA-AAA, 2B, 22, .832 OPS), Pete Kozma (A-AA, SS, 21, .625 OPS), Roberto De La Cruz (Rookie-GCL, OF, 17, .546 OPS),  Jarrett Hoffpauir (AAA, 2B, 26, .843 OPS), Bryan Anderson (AAA, C, 22, .692), Adam Ottavino AAA, SP, 23, 4.75 ERA)

Will Matt Holliday Lead the Cardinals to the Playoffs? (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

Evaluating the Trades So Far
The Cardinals are fun to watch again.

A team that was having trouble scoring runs can now hit and pitch with the best teams in baseball.  The recent moves have really been paying off… so far.  Is the short term gains worth what we’ve given up?

The team has been on a roll and is 11-6 since acquiring Holliday. Lugo has batted 64 times with a .362/ .397/ .603/ 1.000 slash line*, giving us middle infield depth that we were lacking and a reliable bat against left handed pitching.

DeRosa hasn’t been on base a lot, but he’s had big hits and has been slugging the ball with authority: .226/ .291/ .495/.786.   This has been a big improvement over what we were trotting out to play third base before, and has given our lineup some real depth.  Look for the home runs to drop but the on base percentage to go up.

Ted Williams Holliday has been unreal and has batted .470/ .506/ .788/ 1.294 since the trade.  He’s given us better team speed and has played plus defense to go along with his big bat.   He won’t hit like this forever, but he’s one of the top players in the league and he’s been enjoyable to watch.

These players have unquestionably made the Cardinals better in 2009.  Is it worth it?  What if we don’t make the playoffs or sign our pending free agents (no).  What if we win the World Series but still lose our free agents (Yes, Flags fly forever).  What if we don’t make the playoffs but are able to sign Holliday? (Probably)

The Cost of Trades
Brett Wallace will be good.  He will also be a cheap source of run production for 6 years after he makes his major league debut.  That adds a TON of value to a team.  Does everyone remember when Albert was making league minimum and putting up Hall of Fame numbers? Shudder.

The only problem Wallace has had in the minors (aside from below average defense at third) is that his power has been down this year.  He is young, has a lot of time to develop, and still projects as a great player in the majors.  Will he be an All-Star?  He’s got a good shot, but a lot of that depends on if he sticks at 3rd base or ends up at first.

Either way, his ceiling is high and we will miss him.  He’s got a chance to be “Danny Haren” good, but he could also end up the next “Daric Barton” (who?).  Somewhere in between is where he will probably end up and if we don’t make the playoffs or sign Holliday, the Mulder trade will have some serious competition.

Clayton Mortenson, Shane Peterson, Jess Todd and Chris Duncan are not A level prospects, but all have value and could have helped balance the Cardinal’s future budget.  Out of the 4, Todd could be helping the Cardinal bullpen right now.  He projects to be a decent middle reliever.

Chris Perez is the wildcard.  If he becomes a closer (his strikeouts per 9 are outstanding) he will be tough to lose.  Closers are hard to find, expensive and the man possess great stuff.  If he becomes a good middle reliever (his walks per nine innings are a concern) then he will be expendable.  It all depends on if he can develop more control.

Free Agency Isn’t Free
So what’s good about this trade, besides the obvious gain of helping our team make the playoffs this year and giving us a better shot at another ring?  Do these trades possibly make us better into the next decade?

Payroll is fluid with the Cardinals.  It’s not always going to be 100 million dollars, nor should it be.  They don’t like to make bets on players that are overpriced talents (Alfonso Soriano) and are always looking for complete players (defense, running, hitting, good player in the clubhouse).  That’s why you see them pick up the scrap players or reclamation projects that are cheap (Khalil Greene, Todd Wellenmeyer) or the players that fall through the cracks (Kyle Loshe) instead of always going for the best player on the market.

They want to save their “dry powder” for players like Scott Rolen, Larry Walker, Chris Carpenter, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Jim Edmonds, Mark McGwire.  When the Cardinals go “All In”, you can bet that they aren’t doing it with a 7-2 offsuit.  They are making a calculated risk.

That is why it was foolish to look at the Cardinals payroll this year and say that the Cardinals were cheapskates.  Yes the payroll was down, but there wasn’t anything on the market that could have made them appreciably better.  If they would have spent money just to appease the fans, they would have ended up with a lot of dead weight (Edgar Renteria, Milton Bradley, John Smoltz, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny) or overpriced talent (A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixera, C.C. Sabathia).

St. Louis:  THE Holiday Destination
But we are the Cardinals, doesn’t everyone want to sign with us for less than they are worth?  Who wouldn’t want to play for a team with temperate humid climate that is close to an ocean a river with one of the best worst night lives in the major leagues?  We’re the Yankees Cardinals, so we can outbid all of the large mid market teams like the Mets, Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Tigers, White Sox, Reds and Pirates.  Plus we have an Arch!

This is a common misconception that our fans have.  One of the ideas that people don’t seem to realize is that good free agents have their pick of where to go.  It’s not a fantasy league and we aren’t the 1st pick of most players.  We can’t just pick the free agent and he will automatically sign with us.  Brian Fuentes is a great example.  We outbid the Angels for him, but he wanted to play closer to his home town in California.  There is nothing you can do about this, so the fans that complain are off base.

A great fanbase and winning history are nice, but players look for other things.  How much money can I make there, is the city close to my home town, will they win with me there, what kind of endorsements can I make there, would my wife and kids like living there, will my girlfriend, how much money will I make there, what is there to do in the city, do I like playing there, do I have any friends on the team, how much money will I make there?

Resigning Holliday
A trade like Holliday does a few things that help in resigning him.  He builds friendships, the family gets used to the area and he can see how he will fit in with the team.  Instead of having to bid the most amount of money, we have a time period where we aren’t bidding against everyone.  If we are around the amount he thinks he can get, we don’t have to OUTBID for him.  We can sign him BEFORE he reaches free agency and the Yankees and Red Sox come calling.

This is a HUGE reason for trading a player before free agency.  This doesn’t mean that we can pay him a lot less money, but it does mean that we can try to agree on how much he is worth BEFORE other teams start increasing that total. This is important.  The Cardinals chances of signing a difference maker (Holliday) went from 5% to 60% or more.  It’s not a sure thing, but they are playing the percentages (which worked for McGwire, Rolen, Edmonds, etc.).

The Cardinals may have made a good bet, but that doesn’t mean it will work out.  Even if we don’t sign Holliday, it is best to put your “future” blinders on and enjoy the season.  It has been fun to watch so far, and you don’t have many chances as fans to see a team this good.

Just follow this link and sign up today.

Contact me at Dustin@whiteyball.com

Follow me on twitter.

Joe Mather (Photo taken by Dustin Mattison)

Tuesday I took a look at the Cardinals trade options, and preached patience.  Today I will be looking at our roster and lineup configurations and have an entirely different view.

The Cardinals bats awoke last night for a great victory, but work still needs to be done.  The roster construction and lineup has holes, and I have a few suggestions to change it:

First of all, lets look at our best fielding lineup according to UZR/150 (UZR stands for Ultimate Zone Rating: (The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.  The 150 is averaged out over 150 games):

1B Albert Pujols -3.8 (Pujols is a good fielder and was +8.5 last year)
2B Joe Thurston +30.3
SS Brendan Ryan +42.5
3B Brian Barden +13.5
LF Rick Ankiel +63 (Limited playing time in left, he’s a plus 7.6 overall)
CF Colby Rasmus +38.2
RF Ryan Ludwick -2.6  (Ludwick was a +4.6 last year)

This is a VERY good fielding lineup, and would save the team a ton of runs on defense over our current configuration.  So far this year, our second base, left field and 3rd base defense have been terrible..  That being said, I think all of us are more worried about hitting right now, so let’s look at the best lineup via OPS (On base percentage, plus slugging percentage…

OPS Key:  .750 OPS is average (good for middle infielder and centerfielder, below average for corner outfielder or infielder), .800 is good (and great for middle infielder/ centerfielder), .900 is All-Star, 1.000 is MVP territory)

1B Albert Pujols 1.087
2B Joe Thurston .748
SS Tyler Greene .812
3B Brendan Ryan .779
LF Chris Duncan .743
CF Colby Rasmus .794
RF Rick Ankiel .766

First of all, what would we do without Pujols?  Second, who isn’t excited about Colby Rasmus right now?  He is red hot and has carried this team’s offense of late.

Tyler Greene and Brendan Ryan, have much smaller sample sizes, but they’ve earned a shot at platooning at SS.  We actually have 3 great utility infielders when combined with Thurston (Ryan/Greene could be more), and really don’t have a spot for Khalil Greene when he comes back.  He is the casualty of a roster cut.  One of our biggest weaknesses was our long term situation at short, and you’ve got to like how they are producing.  We will see if their hitting lasts, but their defense is for real.

Nobody else unfortunately is hitting.    You have to expect Ludwick (.739), Duncan, Ankiel and Schumaker (.728) to hit better, but the rest (aside from Colby) have maxed out on what they can do.

This post isn’t about bashing La Russa.  I actually like that he spreads the playing time around and keeps people fresh.  I think that is one of his strengths as manager, as nobody really gets buried on the bench or tired from playing too much.

Saying that, Ludwick is an All-Star and should be starting almost every day.  We should be much more worried about getting him going than Ankiel, and especially Duncan.  Until Duncan finds his power stroke, we can not be carrying his glove in left.  Don’t bury him, but start him 2 days a week, tops and pinch hit him.  He should NOT be starting everyday with his defense (-4.6).

While Rasmus is hot, he should be starting every day.  When he’s not, his defense means he should still start most of the time.

Barden has fielded well at third base, but this lineup needs a jolt that he can’t provide,.  He’s hitting .235/ .290/ .388, and hasn’t hit since April.  He must be sent to the minors to get his swing back.

Joe Mather had a .780 OPS in the majors last year and is starting to hit in the minors after coming back from the surgery on his wrist.  Allen Craig is hitting well in the minors and has experience at 3B.   Let’s see what one of them can do.

The Skip Schumaker experiment should be a more gradual process at second base.  He is currently -26.3 UZR/150 and that is one of the worst in the league.  He’s getting better, but he should not be thrown into the deep end this year.  He’s been surprisingly better than I thought, but there are better ways to construct your lineup.

Recommended starters with Percentage of playing time at each position
C- Yadier Molina 70%/ LaRue 30%
1B- Superman 99.5%
2B- Skip Schumaker 50%/ Joe Thurston 40%/ Brendan Ryan 10%
3B- Joe Mather 60%/ Brendan Ryan 20%/ Joe Thurston 20%
SS- Tyler Greene 60%/ Brendan Ryan 40%
LF- Rick Ankiel 50%/ Chris Duncan 25%/ Skip Schumaker 25%
CF- Colby Rasmus 85%/ Rick Ankiel 15%
RF- Ryan Ludwick 85%/ Rick Ankiel 10%/ Mather 5%

This new lineup will give us plus defenders in left field 75% of the time and second base 50% of the time.  It would give us a better shot at 3rd base, and Ludwick (85%), Rasmus (85%), Schumaker (75%), Ankiel (75%) would still be playing a majority of the time.  You are still mixing and matching, and playing people more when they are hot, less when they are not.  Duncan would still pinch hit almost every game, but have less at bats for Rasmus and Ludwick.  Our best lineup would be this:

Schumaker 2b
Rasmus CF
Pujols 1B
Ludwick RF
Ankiel LF
Mather 3B
Molina C
Pitcher
Greene SS

Instead of pinch hitting a pitcher or middle infielder, we would now have a solid major league bench of Ankiel, Schumaker, LaRue and Brendan Ryan.  You still wouldn’t have a righthander with pop (unless Mather is on the bench), but it would be better than what we have now.

Rotation
Wainwright
Carpenter
Lohse
Pineiro
Wellemeyer

Bullpen
Ryan Franklin
Jason Motte
Chris Perez
Kyle McClellan
Brad Thompson
Trever Miller
Dennys Reyes

*UZR numbers through Tuesday’s game

Albert Pujols, seen here scoring one of the Cardinals few runs in May

Watching the Cardinals try to scratch out runs in May/June is like waiting for paint to dry.  You know it’s going to happen eventually, but it can take an excruciating amount of time. Who is to blame for the poor run production?

Even without Troy Glaus and Khalil Green, this lineup is too good to barely score 3-4 runs per game.  In May, they were the only team with an on base percentage under .300.  That is putrid even on a bad hitting team, and unsustainable for this club.

Every contingency plan the Cardinals had counted on has failed, but there are some head scratchers to critique.  Many fans believe the culprit is roster construction and you have to say they have a valid point. The Cardinals have definitely been “outside the box” in how they have constructed their roster.

Brad Thompson hasn’t pitched in 17 days AND HAS OPTIONS FOR THE MINORS.  Why has he been on this team, especially during the great run of starting pitching?  I can understand why they have kept Boyer (who you just gave up something for and is out of options), but he should be the mopup man.  It’s redundant to have him and Thompson on the team.

We have also carried 5-6 middle infielders throughout the year.  They all show some promise, but are redundant in what they bring to the table.  Brian Barden started off well, but has been terrible of late.  Joe Thurston started off well, went ice cold and is red hot again.  Tyler Greene showed some fielding and some pop but is still a little raw with a penchant to strikeout.

Brendan Ryan has been good with the glove but has been hitting like Cesar Izturis (which isn’t a terrible combination, just not good for the lineup).  Skip Schumaker has hit OK and improved his fielding in May, but is still not close to average.  Khalil Greene has been MIA and should not be considered an option for 2009.

When looking over the options, Joe Thurston and Skip Schumaker have hit well enough for the position but neither can field where they are playing.  The rest of this group has been fielding really well, but not hitting quite enough to be plusses in the lineup.

You aren’t going to find help for your lineup in the middle infield (with this team or outside the organization), but I have a hard time blaming this group for the Cardinals failings.  Most teams have problems in the middle infield.  You can’t really blame them, except to say that we have too many of middle infielders clogging up pinch hitting roles.

Now let’s look at our supposed strength, our outfield:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	UZR/150
Ryan Ludwick	118	0.254	0.323	0.492	0.815	-7.0
Chris Duncan	160	0.256	0.346	0.438	0.779	-13.8
Colby Rasmus	148	0.243	0.311	0.426	0.737	32.5
Nick Stavinoha	44	0.250	0.261	0.409	0.670	-8.5
Rick Ankiel	95	0.221	0.299	0.358	0.657	2.0

Key:  AB = At Bats, AVG = Batting Average, OBP = On base percentage (.340+ is good), SLG = Slugging Percentage (.450+ is good), OPS = On base Plus Slugging (.800+ is good), UZR/150 = Ultimate Zone rating per 150 games (0 is average, above 0 is good)

Ludwick and Duncan have played poorly in the outfield.  Both are hitting decently, but not to the club’s expectations or needs.  Ludwick is finding his stroke after injury and his fielding was above average last year, so you have to expect him to come around.  Duncan is more worrisome.  In order to offset his defense, he MUST show some power.  He had major surgery and there is still a question of whether or not it will return.  He must have power in order to be more than a 4th outfielder/ pinch hitter.  He is the one to watch.

Ankiel has been abysmal since his torrid spring.  A .657 OPS is putrid, and he is really bringing the lineup down with him.  Unfortunately, Ankiel has always been a streaky hitter.  Just when he was turning the corner from his early season slump, he was injured, and he has not come back hot.  The club really should have put him on an injury rehab stint, but couldn’t afford to do this with all of the other holes.  Now they must find him at bats to get out of his slump without hurting the lineup (a difficult task).

Colby Rasmus has shown promise with his good on base percentage in April (.357) and a good slugging percentage in May (.447).  If he can put those two things together he could be a star when combined with his amazing fielding.   Unfortunately, the downside to him was his slugging in April (.305) and on base percentage in May (.256).  He is still a bit young to be counted on in this league, but has really outplayed everyone but Ludwick (when adding in defense).  Hopefully his great start to June will carry over with better consistency.

Almost everything has gone wrong for the Cardinals hitting, but there are a few bright spots.  Albert is still the best hitter in the game and Ludwick can slug with the best of them.  Aside from those two, we have one other hitter who has proved his value.

While Joe Thurston is not the answer at third base due to his below average fielding (he is an excellent fielder at 2nd base), he has shown a great ability to take a walk, and he has surprising doubles power.  His .370 OBP (on base percentage) is second on the team and he is 3 points from tying Chris Duncan for 3rd place in slugging percentage (.435, behind Pujols and Ludwick).

While this achievement shows how bad the rest of our hitting has been (a .435 slugging percentage is almost 3rd?), it also shows what a good find he has been.  Don’t pay any attention to the .256 batting average, Thurston has been a plus player and has more than replaced the Aaron Miles utility role.

Aside from Pujols and Thurston, nobody is hitting to their capability.  There is a group of hitters that must perform better in order for this offense to excel.  With everyone talking about our hole at third base, I think they are missing the point.  If you want to know why the Cardinals haven’t been hitting, look past 3rd base into the outfield.  You will find the answer there.

I Don't Know!

Troy, Troy, where art thou Troy?  This offense has missed its erstwhile third basemen and slugger more than it could have imagined.  The old Abbot and Costello routine, “Who’s on First?”, seems to be talking about the 2009 Cardinals, as “I don’t know” really is on third base.  Something that was seen as depth (3B) has turned into a nightmare in May.  Just like the outfield, which has seen depletion due to injury, third base has seen its worst case scenerio come to fruition. Our two biggest strengths going into the season, (OF and 3B)  have turned out to be our biggest weaknesses due to injury and ineffectiveness.

When Troy Glaus announced his hidden injury to the world (and Cardinals), we were still looking pretty good.  We had David Freese ready to make the jump, Brian Barden and Allen Craig were good backup options, and Joe Mather was coming off an impressive season in 2008.  That didn’t even include our first round draft pick last year, Brett Wallace, who some see as the best hitting prospect in the 2008 draft.

Spring Training changed all of that.  Allen Craig was deemed a defensive liability at third base and was moved to 1B (where players go to die in the Cardinal system).  Joe Mather started out hot and then inexplicably forgot how to hit and is now injured.  He’s yet to take an at bat in the major leagues in 2009.  David Freese was found to have a freak injury from a car accident, which he is still battling and is on the minor league disabled list.  Brian Barden hit well and Joe Thurston didn’t, but made the team as a backup for many different positions.

What happened and what should we do?

Top prospect, Brett Wallace is probably close to being ready to be in a major league lineup, but he is not quite tearing the cover off of the ball like last year.  He needs more seasoning at 3rd base to see if he can be adequate, and there is an important issue at hand with calling him up.  If the Cardinals call him up this year, they will be forced to add him to the 40 man roster.  No big deal right?  We have the space to add the left handed hitting slugger.

Unfortunately, the Cardinals have to be cognizant of the long term.  Calling Wallace up before June 1st would mean that he will make a lot more money in arbitration in year 3-6 before free agency.  Is he even ready for the jump?  Enough to light 1-2 million dollars on fire each year in 2011, 2012 and 2013?

The Cardinals also have an issue with their prospects.   The have  a lot of minor league prospects that were high schoolers and college kids in the 2005/2006 drafts.  That is the trade off for having 2 very good drafts.  What is the significance of this?  Many of these players must be added to the 40 man roster this offseason or we could lose them to other teams in the Rule 5 draft.  Brian Walton from The Cardinal Nation, The Birdhouse at Scout.com has outlined the Cardinals that will need to be added to the 40 man roster in a superb recent article.

Top prospects like Darryl Jones, Jon Jay, Brian Anderson, Adam Ottovino, Jaime Garcia and P.J. Walters will all need to be protected.  This doesn’t even include our mid level prospects, 2010 free agents, major league players or players that make a big push this year in the minors.  If we call up Wallace, he will need to be protected too and we will lose one of these precious spots.

Wallace was just promoted to AAA after a slightly disappointing round of AA.  The man was still hitting well for a prospect at his age, .281/.391/.438 (Batting Average, On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage), but his batting average and slugging percentage were below expectations.  When you translate that to the majors, he projects to struggle a bit, and it shows that he needs a little more seasoning.

Is all of this worth it for a player that probably isn’t quite ready to hit in the majors, and definitely not ready to play third base?

The best thing to do right now, in my opinion is to give the 2009 NL rookie of the month more playing time.  While Brian Barden has not been hitting well in May, he is barely getting playing time over Joe Thurston.  The worst thing that happened to the Cardinals is that Thurston had a good April and the team thought he could play everyday at third base.  While I think he has some value as a backup middle infielder and occasional starter at third base, he shouldn’t be anywhere near a regular lineup (especially when he is this cold).

You can’t blame the Cardinals for not having enough depth at third base.  As I have outlined above, the worst case scenerio has occured that nobody could have predicted.  Things are bound to turn around and the organization and fans are going to have to be patient.  I know the Cardinals are in a terrible skid, but we need to ride out the storm with what we have.

Colby Rasmus

If you have been reading this blog over the past 3 months, you know that my favorite topic for debate is Colby Rasmus.  When is/was the best time to call up the super prospect?  Have we rushed him (and his arbitration clock) to soon?

The consensus with fans, statisticians and scouts seem to be for his arrival, and he has shown flashes of his immense potential.  His game winning double last Sunday night helped the Cardinals avoid the sweep versus the Reds and he has shown many positives this year.  Do the numbers agree with our perception?  Should he have been called up at the start of the season?

Rasmus has shown a smooth swing and effortless fielding ability in his brief time in the majors.  His is the rare case where scouts and stat guys fall in love with the same player.

It is easy to see why scouts like him.  He has everything they look for in a player:  speed, defense, a beautiful line drive swing, and a strong arm.

Statisticians swooned over him after he put up a .275/ .381/ .551 slash line (Batting Average, On Base Percentage/ Slugging Percentage) in AA ball during his age 20 season in 2007.  His combination of plate discipline (taking walks) and slugging are rare at his age, especially for someone that plays a premium defensive position (centerfield), and plays it well.

What does the Rasmus report card read for the young season?

His fielding has been dynamic.  I have talked about UZR before to compare player’s fielding.  UZR stands for Ultimate Zone Rating: (The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.)  UZR/150 projects what a player would do over a 150 game schedule.  Thus, if a player is plus 2 runs after 15 games, he would be plus 20 after 150 (10 x 15 = 150; 2 x 10 = 20).

Colby Rasmus would save 43.4 runs over a full season.

Let us view that again for it to sink in:  He is 43.4 runs ABOVE AVERAGE.  That is amazingly good.  The top qualifying centerfielder last year was 16.1 runs above average, and in centerfield, Rasmus projects to a plus 34.9 UZR/150 on the year.  The man can take away a lot of hits and is one of the best centerfielders in the game.  For comparison’s sake, Ankiel is 2.7 runs above average.  (Off topic:  Why is Ankiel starting in centerfield when Rasmus is playing?)

Hitting has been a different story.  Colby has put up a a slash line of .256/.337/.349 that is truly terrible.  He’s getting on base OK, but he’s hitting like a backup middle infielder and Aaron Miles could outslug him.  His power WILL develop, but it is not there yet.  Would a month of feasting off of triple A pitching been good for him?  He would be up regardless with Ankiel’s injury, but he might have more confidence, and we would not have lost a year before free agency.  Has his defense been that good?

A month in the minors would have probably meant that Rasmus would have had one more year before the all important arbitration year.  Has the April sacrifice been worth it?  This is a difficult question.  On the surface, I would say no.  There is a chance calling Rasmus up to soon will stunt his growth and his bad hitting outweighs the month of great fielding and baserunning.

After delving a little deeper, there are two important reasons why I believe it has been a good idea.  The competition has been horrible.  Brian Barton played his way out of town.  Joe Mather has had an abysmal spring training and has been even worse in AAA (.129/ .194/ .200).  John Jay was great out of spring training, but has had a horrible start in Memphis (.223/.286/ .259).

The second reason is the most important:  The Cardinals are in first place.  If Rasmus’s speed and defense have helped the Cardinals to the lead in the division, that trumps the added year before free agency.  I’m not sure we couldn’t have found a decent stopgap over the first month (and play Ankiel, Duncan and Ludwick more), but you can’t argue with the results.

I’d have to give the Cardinals the benefit of the doubt and say that it has been a good call. If Rasmus’s hitting doesn’t get buried while Ankiel is out, the experience COULD be good for him.  La Russa has been playing him at the right pace to start the season so that he doesn’t get into any prolonged slumps.  He has always been a slow starter in every level that he’s been promoted to.  The experience in the majors could make him a better player and he could start turning it around.

Of course, if the Cardinals don’t make the playoffs this year, I have the right to change my mind.

Photo courtesy of Dustin Mattison

Manny Ramirez - Fox Sports Photo

Fox Sports is reporting that Manny Ramirez will be suspended 50 games for a positive PED test.

For all of those who thought Manny would look great batting behind Pujols in 2009, I’m sure glad that never materialized. I hope the Dodgers have a clause in the 1 year contract to cover something like this. A one year $25 million contract, and he will be suspended for about 1/3 of the season.

I wonder how this will affect the Dodgers, who currently sit with Major League Baseball’s best winning percentage. Only time, well 50 games, will tell.

Matt Wilson