Albert Pujols

The United Cardinal Bloggers have been doing our regular roundtable, so I thought I’d spark a little debate with an unpopular question: Is Pujols worth the contract the Cardinals will have to give him?  To be honest, my answer would be “yes”, but I thought I’d look at the other side of the equation. With numbers being thrown out like $25 or $30 million for 10 years, you can easily find ways in which the contract won’t work.

While the future Hall of Famer has two years remaining on his contract, signing him has been cause for concern for many in Cardinal nation. In order to preface this question, I brought up a cautionary tale. Frank Thomas may have been a better hitter than Albert Pujols through his age 29 season. Really:

Thomas: .330 BA/ .452 OBP/ .600 SLG/ OPS+ 182
Pujols: .334 BA/ .426 OBP/ .628 SLG/ OPS+ 171

OPS+ normalizes on base plus slugging for league average. Thomas played in a league where it was more difficult to hit than Pujols (due to variables such as baseball parks). While he isn’t anywhere close to the same fielder as Pujols, this comparison shows what a great hitter he was and how comparable the right handed hitters really were.

Frank Thomas

If Thomas were the Cardinal player instead of Pujols, we would have been talking about signing him to the same contract (or slightly less due to his fielding issues). After Thomas turned 30, he only hit .276/.389/.515 with 264 homers and a 134 OPS+. He had quite a few injuries and performed much worse than before 30.

From 2002-2008 (which would be the last 6 years of a 10 year contract), Fangraphs had Thomas worth $51.2 million dollars. A $25 million a year contract in the last 6 years would be $150 million or a net deficit of ONE HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS. Mid market clubs can’t eat $16.6 million per year in performance deficits.

Alex Rodriguez is another good comparison for Pujols. In his age 30-33 seasons, he has been worth 102.9 million. Over 4 years, this is worth $25.725 per season (per Fangraphs). What is Rodriguez going to be worth over the next 6 years with regression?

Now you may say that Albert is going to be different. Thomas fell off a cliff in his age 30 season and nobody projects Pujols to fall that much (or any) this season (age 30). Rodriguez is still a great player and has never had Pujols’s contact rate or plate discipline, but you have to realize that Pujols best seasons are probably behind him.

Is Pujols worth 10 years 25 million dollars? Would you sign him for 10 years $30 million? Are you confident he will be worth it? If so why? What would he have to produce over 10 years as a break even?  I’d have a tough time going over 10 years at $250 million, and while I’d pay that due to what Pujols has done for the franchise, I think 10 at $230 million is closer to what he will be worth (though he will probably sign for somewhere in between 10 @ $25 million and 10 @ $30 million.

The responses were typically one sided for Pujols, with some wishfull thinking that he will sign a below market contract.  Hopefully, our esteemed bloggers are correct…

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Chris Reed
http://bird-brained.mlblogs.com

No offense is meant to anyone, but HOLY CRAP do the Sabermetrics guys overthink this game. Some statistics majors and math camp counselors happen to be fans of the game, concoct a bunch of new statistics to bend reality any way it can possibly be bent, and all of a sudden we need to reinvent baseball. Let’s all take a deep breath, put down the graphing calculators, and have a rational discussion.

1) Frank Thomas is likely a first-ballot Hall of Famer, unless his extensive time at DH takes significant votes away. It should not, because he did put in significant field time as well, but you never know. Regardless, even though I am a staunch opponent of the DH in theory, Thomas really was that good…and he missed a lot of time late in his career. Even if his future offensive numbers are 2/3 what they were over the past nine seasons, Pujols would likely be a first ballot HOF’er too. So they’re good company so far.

2) Based on raw offensive numbers, Thomas and Pujols are a very fair comparison to this same point in their careers. But Pujols is a Gold Glove first baseman who has about 12 games at DH on his resume. Thomas, through his age 30 season, had more than two seasons’ worth of games as a DH. Pujols is the more complete player; that gives him an advantage. Knowing what you know to equal points in their careers, who would be your first pick to start a team: Thomas or Pujols? I’m taking the glove.

3) Thomas broke down physically in the second half of his career. Had he not, the guy could have ended up with 600 or more homers and over 2000 RBI. When the White Sox offered him contracts, they obviously had no idea he’d miss significant time. It’s a risk you take. How much would Thomas have been worth healthy? I mean, he came back to hit 39 homers when he was 38 years old. If Thomas can do it, Pujols can do it, and I’d rather he do it in a Cardinal uniform. The Cards could sign Pujols to a five year deal, and he could be hurt for three of them. But, on the day that deal was signed, would it be questioned as risky? Of course not…at least not until after the contract is up and the backpedaling started (kind of like the Mulder for Haren deal). Regardless, because he is an everyday fielder, I would argue that Pujols has to keep himself in better shape to be more durable. Even if the difference is slight, less risk is still less risk.

Pujols is the best player in the game. So far, he’s the player of the century. “Worth” is a very subjective term. No matter what he makes on this next contract, it will be way too much to play a game for six months out of the year. But when you have a player who is the face of the franchise, universally recognized as the best player in the game, a pillar of the community, and wants to be a Cardinal for life, how can you question his worth with advanced statistics that only a small percentage of fans understand? Plus, who’s to say the Cards’ farm system doesn’t produce the next Roger Clemens, Mariano Rivera, and David Wright? If you draft and develop well, you can afford to “overpay” a player or two if they are the pieces you need to win. The Texas Rangers paying A-Rod $250 mil was ridiculous because it handcuffed them from building a good team. I’d say the Cardinals are in a much better position to contend long-term than the Rangers were in 2001. And I really don’t think Pujols will even make it to the open market, where he certainly would get 8-10 years at $30 mil. per year. I expect his 2011 option to be exercised before the end of this year, and I expect the Cards to sign him for 8 years guaranteed with a couple of options and somewhere in the mid- to upper $20 mil range with money deferred. And he will be worth every penny.

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Daniel Shoptaw
C70 at the Bat www.cardinal70.com

I agree with most of what Chris said, at least to the comparisons of Frank Thomas and Albert Pujols. For all of Thomas’s exploits, he was never considered the best player in baseball. Maybe that’s because of the juicing of his contemporaries or more to the fact that he was mainly a DH, even when he was playing first. So while I understand Michael’s point in pairing the two, I don’t think AP will go down the same road.

There are a lot of times where the cost/benefit analysis must be done, that trying to decide if Player X is worth Y dollars is a cold and calculating process that doesn’t always satisfy the fanbase. The tough decisions do have to be made for the good of the team.

That said, I think there are times where the factoring of underpayment or overpayment have to be put aside, and Pujols is one of those cases. Not only would the Cardinals lose the best player in baseball, a hole that would take 2-3 people to fill, but they also lose an asset to the community. They lose the chance to have the next Stan Musial, a player that is completely identified with the Cardinals from start to finish. They lose a chance for something special.

Think of what Pujols has given to the team. The first years of his career, the Cards got MVP performance for league minimum cost. Even his 10 year deal that we are reaching the end of hasn’t seen him be a costly bauble but an undervalued contributer. After what he’s done for this team, for what he’s done in the community, for the free publicity and positive press that he brings to the club, how exactly do you overpay him?

I think that Pujols will take less than what he could get to stay here (if they get things done before the ‘11 offseason). I think it’ll be a creative contract, perhaps one with a perpetual option in the vein of what Tim Wakefield had in Boston. It should have a personal services contract on the end of it, so they can pay him $20 million to just be Albert and it won’t count toward the payroll that year. I expect a contract around $27 million or so a year. But, in my opinion, the team has to do it. Losing him will be much more costly.

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Mike
Stan Musial’s Stance:  http://stanmusialsstance.com

Before I get to my thoughts on signing AP to a long term deal, let me make a comment on Sabermetrics, because I think people miss the forest for the trees. The whole point of Sabermetrics, at least to me, is to try and convert Qualitative statements into Quantitative data. It’s easy to say Albert Pujols is good, but much harder to define how good. The stats bubba with a sabermetric bent trying to develop that quantitative data pursues a noble goal. Where the SABR disciple sometimes loses his way is when he/she puts all his/her faith in the numbers alone. I agree with Chris here in spirit. But I diverge because Sabermetrics is a TOOL, albeit a powerful tool, in player analysis. If I was a team deciding whether to allocate an enormous amount of my limited resources to one player, I most definitely want all the hard data I can find, or develop, to guard against making a bad investment (a la Vernon Wells and Barry Zito).

Back to AP. We all want him to stay a Cardinal until he retires, and he is absolutely the preeminent RH hitter in baseball today. With the amount of payroll already tied up in Holliday, Carpenter, and Wainwright, I’m not so sure they have the financial resources to pay AP what he’s worth on the open market. Additionally, I think signing AP to a 10 year big money contract would be suicide. Anyone think Pujols will hit at 41 the way he hits today? I don’t.

They ought to be looking at a 6 or 7 year deal max with options after Albert turns 36. Basically the structure deal I had hoped they’d sign Holliday to. It will probably take upwards of $25M a season to retain his services. Paying that kind of moolah through his age 35 season I can see. Paying that kind of money beyond that, just to keep him in St Louis, I think is foolish.

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Justin Adams
www.intangiball.wordpress.com

At the risk of appearing a shameless self-promoter, my thoughts on the attempted quantification of Albert Pujols are well documented in my post, The Power of Pujols.

http://intangiball.wordpress.com/2010/02/17/the-power-of-pujols/

Pujols is an anomaly. Which by definition means he defies conventional methods of measurement. This obviously poses problems when it comes to assigning monetary value to the guy now and for the future.

But Frank Thomas? Seriously? While clearly an extraordinary hitter, Frank Thomas is no Albert Pujols. Dude, Thomas was a DH for a reason. If he were remotely close to the first baseman Pujols is, he’d have been an actual first baseman. Defense, people. We’re talking about the entire other half of the game. Not whether or not he can hit a slider thrown left-handed in a day game. Furthermore, how many times has AP been brushed back, scowled at his prey, and promptly gone yard? Is there a stat for that? How many clutch hits? How many extra bases does he take each year? How many butts has he put in the seats of the new ball park? How much attention has he brought to the oft-neglected Saint Louis skyline? Look, I don’t expect to Bill DeWitt to take out a second mortgage on his mother’s house, but…….actually, you know what, I do. Because unless you have access to and are using every statistic that applies, there is always a human element that cannot be nailed down. And let’s not forget to look at these stats:

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/33/baseball-values-09_St-Louis-Cardinals_333240.html

Cardinal ownership is turning a small coin. Pujols is the best player in the game and I have no problem with him being paid appropriately by a very profitable organization. If only to appease a very supportive fan base. If Pujols takes an unforeseen turn into egomania, becomes demanding or distastefully greedy, well then, his value takes a hit and we should consider letting him walk. But until that day, pay the man.

—–

Nick
www.pitchershiteighth.com

I too will run the risk of self-promotion, but I presume we have all written about this subject at one time or another. I actually brought it up in a previous UCB Roundtable, during the 2008 off-season.

I’m going to take off the stat hat for a minute, and go with the bleeding heart fan response.

In a city that so blindly ties themselves to the Cardinals, for many different reasons, Albert Pujols stands out among the current players as a beacon to which everyone and everything gravitates. He is the current center of the Cardinal Nation, and is in the process of writing his name among the immortals to have worn the Birds on the Bat. He has an opportunity to do so while wearing that hallowed uniform for the entirety of his Major League Baseball career.

You just don’t let a guy like that walk.

Yeah, I know that the statistics and history bear out that feeding him a big pile of cash for a ridiculous number of years has the potential to hamstring the team in the later years of the contract. I’m fully aware that Pujols can (and may well yet) probably find a larger payday outside of St. Louis. But Albert Pujols *IS* the Cardinals right now. Would folks still pack Busch III if he were allowed to sign elsewhere after 2011? Probably, eventually.

But if you’ll allow me to engage in some hyperbole for a moment… Would you want to be the ownership group that let one of the greatest players in Cardinals franchise history (if not MLB, by the time he’s done) walk? Nevermind the cost. He means that much to this franchise, to this city. Anheuser Busch sold out. Companies and residents continue to leave the City of St. Louis. Will Pujols be the next entity to find better pastures elsewhere?

I don’t think Bill DeWitt’s group plans to allow that to happen, not on their watch. Defer money, get creative with the deal, as Pip suggests – just don’t let him walk for nothing. At least if you can’t re-sign him, trade the guy!

I think the Cards will ultimately re-sign Pujols. I think they may have been sandbagging for the last couple of seasons on payroll because 1) they could, in the NL Central, 2) they were aware this Pujols deal was on the horizon, 3) if not, isn’t Pujols the kind of guy worth taking a loss on for a few seasons?

My big question: if Pujols is true to his word of wanting to finish his career in St. Louis and is willing to take a deal for $20-22mm per year, arguably below current market value, will the MLBPA allow it to happen? Remember that the Players’ Association stepped in a few years ago when Alex Rodriguez appeared headed to Boston, but his contract wasn’t favorable enough for the PA’s liking.

——-

Pip, Fungoes http://fungoes.net

How is considering how much Pujols’s future worth “overthinking”? Given that it’s probably a $100-million decision, if anything is worth thinking about, it’s his future contract. The surest sign of how *irrational* we are about this topic is that we start name-calling over merely posing the question.

As Daniel and Chris have noted, the statistical comparisons of Pujols and Thomas are perhaps insufficient, but mostly because of fielding, which granted is no small thing. But given their wOBA through their age-29 seasons — .436 and .447, respectively — it’s difficult to argue that Pujols is a better hitter. The point that I think Michael is making here is salutary: As fans we tend to think that players — especially great ones — aren’t subject to the laws of science, specifically aging. And in that, Thomas should make us pause and dispassionately consider how neither Pujols is above the effects of aging and decay. Thomas’s latter-career physical breakdown is more the rule than an exception. The simple reality is that by the time Pujols’s current contract ends, we likely will have seen his best, and not only will he fail to improve, he’ll actually get worse. True, worse is a relative term: Even diminished, Pujols is still better that most players (as Thomas was). But there’s a lot of money between “better than average” and $30 million a year. As much as Cardinal fans clamor for the team to “do whatever it takes” to keep Pujols a Cardinal for the rest of his career, given their treatment of past players who made considerably less money, I seriously doubt their ability to graciously endure a player whose declining production increases the disparity between his value and his pay and quite possibly inhibits the team’s ability to win.

I propose something a bit radical (big surprise, I know): If, as Pujols, claims, it’s not principally about the money but on being part of a competitive team, the Cardinals can honor their superstar with a lifetime contract, but one whose value is based on Pujols’s actual current performance (and not his past) and that allows Pujols to opt-out if the team is no longer competitive. For example, Fangraphs estimates the three-time MVP to have a free-agent value of between $32 and $35 million in 2010. If he were to sign such a contract extension/restructure this spring and performed as expected, his salary for 2010 would be between $32-35 million (rather than the $16 million he is currently to receive). As he went on playing, his salaries might be something like $30m, $25m, $20m, $15m, $11m, $7m, etc. That would represent good faith on his part: He would be paid approximately what he was worth (at least on the playing field, which, granted, is only part of his total value). For the Cardinals’ part, they would provide a clause whereby Pujols could become a free agent if they, for example, had back-to-back losing seasons (or three of five, etc.). Will it happen? Of course not. But come 2011, both parties — either Pujols, due to a career-threatening injury, or the Cardinals due to the siren song of east-coast dollars — may find themselves wishing they would have.

On Saturday afternoon at 3:00 PM Central, the United Cardinal Blogger Radio Hour, will have the Cardinals minor league director John Vuch on as a guest on another special edition of the show. Dustin from Whiteyball and Nick from Pitchers Hit Eighth will quiz him about St. Louis’s farm system and who we should keep an eye on this season.

You can also download the podcast by going to iTunes and searching for the United Cardinal Bloggers

The United Cardinal Bloggers have been in existence since 2007 and work together on various projects and discussions.  The UCB Radio Hour came out of that in 2008, providing yet another forum for talking Cardinal baseball.

Inside Pulse’s Question:
Is it time to let Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan walk?

Each year, more people begin to ask this question. It’s gotten to the point where other teams are waiting to announce staff changes until the Cardinals to; rumor had it the Reds were waiting to announce Dick Pole’s replacement until the Cardinals were eliminated from the playoffs, in case they could get Duncan. It was also rumored that they’d have no problem dismissing Dusty Baker if Tony LaRussa was available.

LaRussa is a hall of famer; Duncan is the highest paid pitching coach in baseball. Both are great for the team; both also have faults.

Whiteyball Comment (Michael Riehn):I think there is one simple way to answer this question: Who has proven to be a better manager and pitching coach (that the Cardinals could go out and get) that would replace La Russa and Duncan? I don’t see anyone that has proven to be better.

The popular answer is Oquendo, but why? Does anyone have any insight into his managing of the Puerto Rican team that gives them confidence in his abilities? We know he has not shown the greatest media abilities (see the Joel Pineiro situation). His language skills have improved, but I don’t see him spinning yarns ala Whitey Herzog.

He has been schooled by La Russa and Herzog. He’s not going to be much different than them. Why do we think he will (in his first managing job) buck the industry trends for more new age thinking (La Russa is still on the leading edge of this). Why do we want to give up one of the best third base coaches in the business (we’d have to replace him) and give him less time to spend with the infielders? (Oquendo hasn’t exactly been on the fast track to manage)

Successful managers (Joe Maddon?) are signed to their teams for long term deals or wouldn’t want to leave their current situation.

For all their foibles, we often time forget La Russa/ Duncan’s many strengths (veteran pitchers, keeping bench players active and starters fresh, protecting players, keeping everyone playing hard, respect from players, etc.). They aren’t great with bad bullpens or young pitchers (though they HAVE developed some), but they also build character in their young players (you may call it the doghouse, I call it letting them prove themselves). We seldom see a La Russa player dogging it.

La Russa may be the best manager in the business for Brendan Ryan (he’s more serious and dedicated) and Colby Rasmus seems to have checked his cockiness into a more “quite confidence” tone. You earn your loyalty with his regime and he will return it in spades.

Change for change sake is almost never a good idea. If we are going to replace them, we need a solid reason for doing so. I haven’t seen this reasoning yet, and La Russa/ Duncan have proven to be successful (even with their admitted quirks).

The United Cardinal Bloggers are having our annual roundtable discussion with questions and debate from several of our authors over the next 10 days. The blogger of the day proposes a question on e-mail, everyone takes a day to respond to it and offer responses to the question.  The first question was from yours truly regarding the value of Matt Holliday.  Question and Answers from the group are below.

Whiteyball Question:

How much should the Cardinals spend to sign Matt Holliday?  (Please give your answer in total value and average annual value.)  What is your Plan B if they don’t resign him?

Does the fact that we gave up Brett Wallace+ to add Holliday, or that he qualifies as a type A free agent (First round draft pick plus supplemental pick between first and second round), factor into your decision?

Remember, that Holliday IS one of the top players in the league and will be paid as such.  He’ll be 30 years old in 2010 and is in the prime of his career.  He had the 16th highest OPS+ last year, the 13th best in 2008 and the 12th best in 2007.  The fielding metrics have him above average.  You can’t say that he is only worth 12 million dollars per year (in value or to the Cardinal team).

His WAR (wins above replacement) value was 5.6 in 2009 per Fangraphs.  Fangraphs estimated (in 2008) that each WAR point is worth 4.5 million dollars (4.5 x 5.6= $25.2 million).  In 2008:  6.2 WAR (28 million), 2007:  7.9 WAR (32.2 million).  This gives you a frame of reference for what the advanced statistics say he is worth (and you know Scott Boras knows the advanced statistics).  The highest money an outfielder has made (per season) is Manny Ramirez (at 22.5 million).

Resources (Cot’s Baseball Contracts)
Highest Paid Players of all time

Total Contract Value:
1. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)
3. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10)
4. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)
5. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15)
6. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08)
7. Miguel Cabrera, $152,300,000 (2008-15)
8. Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11)
9. Johan Santana, $137,500,000 (2008-13)
10. Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14)
11. Vernon Wells, $126,000,000 (2008-14)
12. Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13)
13. Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08)
14. Jason Giambi, $120,000,000 (2002-08)
15. Carlos Beltran, $119,000,000 (2005-11)
16. Ken Griffey Jr., $116,500,000 (2000-08)
17. Kevin Brown, $105,000,000 (1999-2005)
18. Carlos Lee, $100,000,000 (2007-12)
19. Albert Pujols, $100,000,000 (2004-10)
20. Carlos Zambrano, $91,500,000 (2008-12)
21. Mike Piazza, $91,000,000 (1999-2005)
22. Barry Bonds, $90,000,000 (2002-06)
23. Torii Hunter, $90,000,000 (2008-12)
24. Chipper Jones, $90,000,000 (2001-06)
25. Scott Rolen, $90,000,000 (2003-10)

Average Annual Value (all time):
1. Roger Clemens, $28,000,022 (2007)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $27,500,000 (2008-17)
3. Alex Rodriguez, $25,200,000 (2001-10)
4. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)
5. Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)
6. Manny Ramirez, $22,500,000 (2009-10)
7. Mark Teixeira, $22,500,000 (2009-16)
8. Roger Clemens, $22,000,022 (2006)
9. Manny Ramirez, $20,000,000 (2001-08)
10. Miguel Cabrera, $19,037,500 (2008-15)
11. Derek Jeter, $18,900,000 (2001-10)
12. Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)
13. Andruw Jones, $18,100,000 (2008-09)
14. Barry Bonds, $18,000,000 (2002-06)
Roger Clemens, $18,000,000 (2005)
Ryan Howard, $18,000,000 (2009-11)
Torii Hunter, $18,000,000 (2008-12)
Sammy Sosa, $18,000,000 (2002-05)
Ichiro Suzuki, $18,000,000 (2008-12)
Vernon Wells, $18,000,000 (2008-14)
Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13)
15. Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12)
16. Jason Giambi, $17,142,857 (2002-08)
17. Jeff Bagwell, $17,000,000 (2002-06)
Carlos Beltran, $17,000,000 (2005-11)
Carlos Delgado, $17,000,000 (2001-04)
Alfonso Soriano, $17,000,000 (2007-14)

Outfielders
The highest-paid active outfielders, by average annual value:
Manny Ramirez, $22,500,000 (2009-10)
Manny Ramirez, $20,000,000 (2001-08)
Andruw Jones, $18,100,000 (2008-09)
Torii Hunter, $18,000,000 (2008-12)
Ichiro Suzuki, $18,000,000 (2008-12)
Vernon Wells, $18,00,000 (2008-13)
Carlos Beltran, $17,000,000 (2005-11)
Alfonso Soriano, $17,000,000 (2007-14)
Carlos Lee, $16,666,667 (2007-12)
Magglio Ordonez, $15,000,000 (2005-09)
J.D. Drew, $14,000,000 (2007-11)
Vladimir Guerrero, $14,000,000 (2004-08)
Johnny Damon, $13,000,000 (2006-09)
Hideki Matsui, $13,000,000 (2006-09)
Bobby Abreu, $12,800,000 (2003-07)
Kosuke Fukudome, $12,000,000 (2008-11)
Jose Guillen, $12,000,000 (2008-10)
Aaron Rowand, $12,000,000 (2008-12)
Matt Holliday, $11,500,000 (2008-09)
Nick Markakis, $11,016,667 (2009-14)
Jermaine Dye, $11,000,000 (2008-09

ANSWERS

Kevin Tooke,  Whiteyball: I think Holliday is going to command something (in the range of) 5/95 or 6/108, and not with the Redbirds.

Trey, The Cardinal Virtue:

I think if you look at the top paid outfielders, you’d have to say Holliday isn’t quite the hitter that Manny is (or at least was) and also takes a knock for not being a centerfielder like most of the other top guys.

The most comparable guys on that list to me are Carlos Lee and Soriano and I’d rather have Holliday than either of them.  They were both younger than Holliday when they hit free agency I believe, but I’d say Holliday rates a 5-6 year deal at 17-18 million per year comparing him to other top outfielders.

Taking top figure in both areas, that means six years at 108 million total.  That seems like a huge investment, and I’d be hard-pressed to say its worth it.  Look at some of the deals on that list like Soriano’s and Vernon Wells for instance and the way they’ve regressed since signing those deals.

Unfortunately, the only other comparable bat on the market this year is Jason Bay, and you have to think the Red Sox will pay around that amount to keep him, so I’m not sure we have much choice.  We need to show Albert we are willing to pay to keep a winning team.

Plan B I think would to be to move Shu back to left field and sign a good 2B like Orlando Hudson plus re-sign DeRosa at third and take the draft picks Holliday would give us.  That would be cheaper, and would give us better team defense and team speed, but not too much in the power department.

A tough quandry.  I would go with Holliday, but it’s not my money of course.

Eugene Tierney, Inside Pulse:

This is a problem for the Cardinals.  They’ll have quite a bit of money coming off the payroll (my figure is about $42MM or so), but are looking at a lot of raises (Wainwright, Schumaker, Molina, Ludwick to name a few, I’m figuring $12MM or so).

They also need at least 1 starter, 3B (depending on DeRosa), LF (if Holliday isn’t retained), 4th OF, back up C, and a bullpen arm or 2 (one possibly a closer).  I’m guessing Jaime Garcia and Mitch Boggs will be in contention for one of the roster spot, Matt Pagnozzi and Bryan Anderson for back up catcher, and Joe Mather, Jon Jay, Allen Craig and Shane Robinson for 4th outfielder.  David Freese will be at 3B if DeRosa isn’t back.

They will have the resources to re-sign Holliday, but will it limit what else they will do?  I’m thinking it’ll take $20MM per for 6 years to keep him around; the highest the Cardinals should go should be 5 years, $15MM per.  I want something to show for giving up Wallace and Mortensen; we’ll at least get 2 picks.

The other side of the coin is Albert.  Signing Holliday will show the team is committed to winning, but will it limit what they can offer him?

Some numbers to think about…

Carpenter $15MM option
Lohse $11.875MM
Molina $7MM option
Wainwright $9MM option

These are the 2012 salary commitments.  I’d figure Carp will get the $1MM buyout at that point, but we’ll pick up Molina’s and Wainwrights.  That’s roughly $30MM committed.  Schumaker will be in his last year of arbitration and Rasmus will be in arbitation (if he’s still with the team and hasn’t sign an extension).  If Holliday is making $18-20MM and you have to sign Albert for $22-25MM, you won’t have much left to field a full team.

Plan B would be Bobby Abreu.  He’ll be cheaper and won’t need a long term commitment.  It’s been reported that Angels players have learned a lot from his this season, so he’d be good to have around with Rasmus, Freese, etc.  He’ll also allow us to have some money to spend on a good #3 starter (since Lohse is more of a #4) and/or a closer.

Mike Metzger, Stan Musial Stance:

Great kickoff question.

To me, you can’t discuss Holliday without discussing Pujols.  The Cardinals are either going to tie up a significant portion of their disposable income in Holliday, or they’re going to do it with Pujols.  It’s not an easy decision.  Both are 29.  Both are marquee players.  Holldiay was worth 5.6 WAR (with Oakland and St Louis) and $25.4M.  Pujols?  8.4 WAR and $38M (all data per Fangraphs)

The Cardinal fanbase has a lot emotionally invested in AP, and they won’t want to see him leave.  The same fanbase wants Holliday to stay because of the prospects (read Brett Wallace) the organization gave up to get him.  So what is Mozeliak to do?

Albert Pujols is one of the best right-handed hitters to ever walk the earth.  Holliday isn’t.  I don’t think the Cardinals should mortgage the future, and let Pujols go to Boston, in order to retain Holliday’s services.  I’m willing to settle for the two draft picks the team will get for losing a Type A free agent.

As for a replacement in LF.  Move Schu back to LF.  Sign Felipe Lopez as a free agent (wOBA .356 last year with AZ and MIL) to play second and hit second.

Now, should Holliday be willing to sign for Troy Glaus money ($12.5M), then I say keep him; but I think his compensation will be closer to the $15-18M range per annum (figure 5 years, $90M), which makes keeping both him and Pujols next to impossible.

Keep Pujols.  Thanks for a great August, Matt.

Nick, Pitchers Hit Eighth:

Matt Holliday’s Baseball Reference page gives a pretty good name for discussion, under the “Similar Batters through” listing.

One that pops up, through Holliday’s current age, is Magglio Ordonez.  Maggs signed a 5 year, $75mm contract with the Detroit Tigers that carried several contingencies based upon the health of his knee, following injury issues as he finished out in Chicago.

Ordonez received a small base salary in the first year of his contract, a slight bump down in the third year (a just in case clause?), but the grand total was an average of $15mm per season.

Figure in the difference in economic states between that contract and now, and the fact that to our knowledge, Holliday has no injury concerns, and it stands to reason that Holliday may be attainable at something like 5 years, $90mm.

Of course, that number doesn’t take into account Scott Boras’ hype nor the clamoring of the rabid Cardinal fan base.  Boras is already marketing Holliday as an equal to Teixeira, which means that any perceived discount that the Cardinals may have expected can be tossed right out the window.

If 5 years, $90mm is the price tag – AND the Cardinals can commit what it takes to extend Pujols – then I say do it.

I’ve been a proponent of sitting Holliday and Pujols down in one room, discussing with them that they have similar goals, putting a number in front of both, and telling them to sort out who gets what.  Obviously, that won’t happen, particularly with Boras involved.  Wouldn’t it be nice though?

Cardinal fans at this point must let go of Brett Wallace and those traded with him for Holliday.  If Matty walks, they get two first round draft picks.  Good enough trade in my book to fly another flag above Busch III.  Keep in mind that Wallace had no position in St Louis and was likely more valuable to an AL team anyway, and who knows where Mortensen will wind up.  Flags fly forever.  Resigning Holliday because of the trade capital invested should not be a consideration when evaluating how high on the dollar scale to go in trying to resign him.

CJ, The Cardinal Virtue:

I feel that the choice isn’t Matt or Albert. I don’t think people realize what they have here:

1. Albert is an investment. He is already a legend. How far that legend goes remains to be seen. Nevertheless, he is a first round hall of famer–no more beating around Busch. He can be one of the rare players to spend his entire career in one place. What is more, he could break some serious records and go down as THE greatest player of all time. But that type of potential has to be cultivated. And it won’t come cheap. However, the reward is soooooo worth any short term price tag. Wake up, people! You do whatever it takes to get the man to stay.

2. Pujols wants a competitive team. Therefore, it is not a question of one or the other. I believe its both or neither. If we don’t first show Albert that the organization is willing to lay out the coin to win then we should fully expect him to walk–no matter how much we offer him. We need to up payroll to pay him a respectable amount and pay for the likes of Holliday.

3. Keeping protection for Albert should be the first priority. Since Pujols’ potential record breaking legacy would mean so much in revenue in the long run, money should be invested now to protect and cultivate that legacy. Holliday could be part of that answer. Is he Scottie Pippin? Maybe. Prolly not, but he could go a long way toward being a part of that answer.

4. It’s not like we have Clemens holding the team hostage here. In fact, we have a nice guy, who signed for way less than was expected last time around. It’s that type of attitude that is begging to sign the likes of Holliday. Look how the Cards did when they had Edmonds and Rolen in full swing right along side Pujols. It wasn’t cheap then either. It’s not like Mac either–where his record breaking season happened amidst what was normally a lack luster team performance.

My answer: Give Pujols what he asks for. Pay Holliday Bay money. The stands are packed like a clown car. Cardinal merchandise flows like wine at a weeding in Cana. There’s a reason Busch III isn’t like Tropicana and people don’t wear the clothes because they like Cornell Haynes’ fashion sense. Pujols and therefore the likes of Holliday can be a continuing reason for such popularity.

We can be cheap now, but we’d pay later.

Daniel Shoptow, C70 at the Bat:

First of all, nobody said there’d be math in this roundtable!

Coming in late to the party, there’s not a lot I can add to the discussion, save the fact that it boils down to where management wants to set the payroll.  If they want to keep it in the $100 million range, then there seems to be absolutely no way to keep Holliday and Pujols.  If they want to get more into the $125 million range, then it’s more feasible.

I’d like to see Holliday stay, but like Nick said, you have to forget about what you’ve already paid for him.  Wallace and company are a sunk cost.  It may make you more involved in the process, but ultimately the signing of Holliday has to stand on its own merits.

If Holliday would come for about $16 million and ownership would bump the payroll ceiling, I think it’s a good deal.  I’m not one that would rant against the picks if he walked, though.

Josh, Pitchers Hit Eighth:

We are definitely starting things out with a bang, and I may surprise some of the UCB faithful with my answer to this question. Given what we have heard from Albert, signing Holliday may be the first step to getting a final long-term deal for the MVP. I say it is time to get creative and show Pujols two things.

1 — The Cardinals are willing to spend the money and that two draft picks are not going to help in the next 2+ seasons.

2 — St. Louis knows that AP comes first.

That is why my offer is one of the escalating variety. It will keep Holliday happy but also shows him that no one comes before El Hombre. Start with something like 11-12 million for the first year of the deal and move it up accordingly over the five remaining seasons. Final total breaks down below and more importantly doesn’t cripple the needs that do remain.

Holliday’s Happiness

2010 — 11.5 million
2011 – 13.5 million
2012 — 15.0 million
2013 — 16.0 million
2014 — 16.0 million
2015 — 18.0 million

Six years, 90 million

Pip, Fungoes:

Before we get into contract numbers, here are a few points that shape our thinking:

1. As Nick from Pitchers (used to) Hit Eighth and others have noted, the loss of Brett Wallace et al is a sunk cost, and whether to sign Holliday must be viewed on its own merits. In reality, though, general managers are a lot like politicians, and they can be emotionally invested in a strategy or chain of decisions, and are suspectible to how they are perceived by the public. John Mozeliak hasn’t given any indication of it, and has generally impressed us as the opposite, a calm, dispassionate decision-maker. He’ll need to avoid the most apt analog, repeating the mistake of his predecessor’s compounding the mistake of trading a top prospect for accomplished vet, then overpaying that vet to stay.

2. The question of whether ownership is committed to winning — a.k.a., the Pujols Contract Extension Demand — has been answered, resoundingly. Most recently, the team mortgaged a good part of its future (not to mention parted with some significant leverage against Pujols in Wallace) to ensure a division championship. More generally, the team wrapped up the decade as the league’s best team. Ownership continues to spend in the top third of baseball on payroll despite being in the bottom third in adjusted market size. Unless Pujols has an unreasonably high burden of “competitive” and therefore isn’t bargaining in good faith, we need to move on from Pujols’s possible rent seeking.

3. As for Plan B, what is the cost of replacing Holliday? That is, what is the club’s outlook for corner outfielders coming up through their system in the next couple of years? Daryl Jones, Allen Craig and Jon Jay are nearing the major-league level. Despite losing the top-line production of Holliday, the team could reap more overall value from one or more of them over a four- to six-year period. And remember: “True shortage of talent almost never occurs at the left end of the defensive spectrum.” Add to the value that the team’s current prospects can provide the value of draft picks that the team would receive from a departing Holliday, and the gap closes further.

4. There’s little to no evidence to believe that Holliday provided any significant level of “protection” for Pujols specifically in 2009. Before Holliday arrived on the scene, Pujols had OBP/SLG/GPA numbers of .450/.711/.380. After? .433/.586/.341. In other words, Pujols’s performance actually went down after the Holliday trade.

5. “Ballplayers, as a group, reach their peak value much earlier and decline much more rapidly than people believe.” True, that’s as a group. But looking at the decline in value in Holliday’s three most-recent seasons, it’s hard to imagine that he’s going to suddenly slow his decline.

So what’s a fair offer? Using the WAR projection spreadsheet from Beyond the Boxscore and the projections at BaseballProjection (which provides neutral park/league stats), along with some of our own extrapolating, we came up with a rough outline of Holliday’s future value. The numbers may be a bit conservative after his above-expectations 2009 campaign, but our assumption that his defense will remain constant probably offsets that:

Rounding up, Holliday is going to be worth about $90 million over six years ($15/year) and about $80 million over five ($16/year). The Cardinals should offer either of those contracts to Holliday and his agent, Scott Boras, with a gentle but firm message: Take it or leave it. They’ve won with Matt Holliday, and they’ve won without him. They can do so again.

Mike Metzger from Stan Musial’s Stance will get a chance to interview Cardinal Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter. The interview should be at about 10:30 central time on Tuesday morning. Check it out by clicking here.

I know I haven’t been posting much lately. Busy work and busy life with 2 kids is taking up all of my time. I also have been trying to prepare for the 5k so I don’t completely get smoked by Dustin (Mr. 10 mile) or Michael (Mr. I work out 3 times a week). If anyone wants to join our www.whiteyball.com team for the All Star Game 5k run on Sunday morning July 12th, put a comment up for this post and I’ll shoot you an email invite to join team www.whiteyball.com for the All Star Game 5K.

The 5th inning was covered nicely over at Redbird Chatter. Game was flying by at this time. The Cards had a 3-0 lead, but with the way Kyle Lohse was pitching, it seemed like a 8-0 lead.

Lohse had the top of the lineup coming up in the top of the 6th. Crisp and DeJesus were quickly retired with groundouts to second and short respectively. In the third spot, Billy Butler, singled to left and Lohse hit Guillen with the pitch. This put men on first and second, but Lohse got Teahen to ground out to short to end the small threat.

With another scoreless inning, the Cardinals have not given up a run to the Royals yet in this series, and only given up a total of 3 runs in the last 5 games. What a stretch!

Duncan, Stavinoha, and Molina are scheduled to come up in the bottom of the sixth. Duncan has really been struggling lately so I didn’t expect much. Stavinoha already produced a 2 run single earlier in the game. You really haven’t seen any multi hit games from Stavinoha, even though he has come up with some big hits to drive in runs recently. Molina hasn’t been tearing the cover off the ball, but he’s still hitting around .280.

The inning went as I expected it to. Duncan struck out looking. Stavinoha grounded out to short. Molina singled to right and Brian Barden followed up by lining out to center fielder, and former Cardinals prospect, Coco Crisp.

Not much excitement in the sixth. Lohse is throwing well and the bats did almost as expected this inning. The Cardinals pitching staff is exciting Cards fans around the country. How many more innings or games can they keep this streak going. Hopefully many more, but you just never know in this game.

Head over to The Cardinal Virtue to check out their perspective on the 7th inning.

Matt Wilson

Todd Wellemeyer

April began with a troubled bull pen and a offensive display that was most impressive.  The starting pitching was good with a few exceptions and late April saw a very impressive stretch of baseball that had Cardinal fans thinking this team was going to leave the rest of the central in the dust.

Then the May showers came.  The bull pen has been good, the offense and starting pitching have sputtered and the team is now in third place, two games behind the Brewers – what the hell?  It’s baseball and a quick wake up call for those of us with illusions of grandeur.  And don’t forget about the Reds and Astros folks…

The feel good stories of Barden and Thurston feel more like players that have been over exposed, although one might ask why after winning rookie of the month, Barden only had seven at bats during the last road trip?  Don’t get we wrong, I still like both, but they’re not everyday players.  K. Greene’s struggles have led to more playing time for first round pick T. Greene and perhaps even B. Ryan.  K. Greene’s huge year is looking more and more like a career offering and his defense has been less than advertised this year.  I like that Tony is seeing what the kids can do, but wonder what a player like Christian Guzman would look like wearing red?

Now one must point to the fact that losing Ludwick and Ankiel will/has led to some of the offensive woes, but really, Ludwick was the only one hitting.  Getting Ludwick back in the lineup will be a huge boost, but it still needs another power stick.  Duncan could be that stick, but the power is noticeably absent.  Personally, before a trade is made, I’d like to see what Brett Wallace can do at this level.  Can it really be any worse than what we’re currently getting from Thurston/Barden?  Chances are Wallace will struggle at first, but there are only a handful of prospects we see every so many years that handle the initial transition.  Pujols never looked back, Colby’s doing ok.  Let’s also remember Wallace went from college ball to AA in less than a year, and did more than fine.  If it doesn’t work, he’s humbled and sent back down to work on it.  But if he does…the offense looks much different.  If Glaus is able to come back, work him in and even better.

The starting pitching is a different matter.  Wainwright should be ok, I’ll hold my breathe every time Carp goes out and Lohse will be fine, if not what a #3 should be.  The questions surrounding Wellemeyer and Pineiro are greater.  Wellemeyer sports a 5.87 era and Pineiro is hovering around a low 4.17.  I’m not advocating a move here, but Wellemeyer has to be better than his seven walks yesterday and Pineiro seems to be trending down after riding his World Baseball Classic issues (I’m not going to call it a snub because the guys that took the rotation spots were better).

Again, I’m not saying we need to go sign Pedro, but if a few things don’t get sorted out in May and no moves are made, things will be interesting.  I’ve resigned myself to the fact that this team will hang around and hopefully be in a position to make one of those famous Tony September runs – let’s just hope we’re close enough.

Clark

UCB - United Cardinal Bloggers

The United Cardinal Bloggers are having an intersquad match up today and I’m going to offer my position as to why Brett Wallace should be called up (considered anyway) if Troy Glaus is out for the year.  Allen at The Redbird Blog will be countering and I encourage everyone to go check out his post.

Here we go.  Ok, so I’m not going to touch the issue of Troy having shoulder problems LAST year and finally being diagnosed right before spring training of THIS year.  Wait for it – - – - – What the hell?

Anyway, Glaus played great defense and could mash, so how do you replace that kind of stick in the order?  Chris Duncan anyone?   Anyway, a healthy Duncan, a good showing by Raz and the best offense in the majors have quited the need to address the offense and the production from third base.  The combination of Thurston and Barden has been more than impressive holding the spot down for now.  It was disappointing that Freese couldn’t stick, but not shocking and I’m sure we’ll see him again.

So why call up Wallace and mess with a good thing?  Not to mention you start his clock and if he’s the hitter we all think, sweat that big contract that will eventually come his way.  I’m glad you asked – and even if you didn’t – it was a rhetorical question.

While Barden and Thurston are playing great, you risk over exposing these guys.  Bo Hart started hot once…  Tony is a master at not overexposing guys and he’s worked magic here.  Could either hold down a position everyday?  Second maybe, but not third, you simply have to have more pop here.  Wallace has pop.

Starting his clock wouldn’t be ideal, but the current trend in MLB is to lock up really good young players with a mutually beneficial contract – see Wainwright.  It’s not that big a deal unless demands just get crazy.

Worried about his defense?  Who better to work with him at the MAJOR league level than the secret weapon?

Glaus is a free agent next year and everything I’ve read notes Wallace as his aire apparent.  Let him get a taste now, so we know whether or not he’s ready.  Anyone wish Motte got more than 10 innings last year now?

Wallace can just flat hit -  eight homers, 36 RBI, and a .337 batting average in 54 games in the minors – including a quick promotion to AA.  We’re not talking rookie ball here folks.  And this year?  So far in 18 games he’s hitting .286 with four homers, 11 RBI and a .438 OBP!

My final point, one which Allen can not hope to counter, look at what happen to Albert Pujols when they let him out of the cage…sometimes guys just belong.

Clark

Without looking, who has the best record thus far in spring training?

_____________________________________________________________________________

No peeking!  Give up?

Would you guess the Atlanta Braves?  Our own Cardinals are 2 games back with an 8-4 record.  You get the general feeling that they are doing well, but most people don’t keep track of exhibition records.  The standings and sometimes even the statistics don’t really matter in Spring Training.  The things that we worry about so much during the season are given way to competition and how players look while coming off of injury.  These issues are starting to define themselves and shape up for the upcoming season.

So what have we learned?  Since we are about halfway through camp, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at what has changed since the beginning of spring training in those halcyon days of pitchers and catchers reporting.  What story lines are emerging for the 2009 team?

Livin’ on a prayer
Skip Schumaker is not surprisingly having a lot of trouble making the conversion to second base.  His .826 fielding percentage is a bit unfair to look at (since he’s still learning on the job), but he’s yet to turn a pivot on a double play, he’s almost got Albert killed on some throws and he doesn’t seem to be going in the right direction.  I believe there is no way a player can learn this position in one spring training.  He might have good instincts and may even show good range for the position, but it takes a lot of reps to learn how to make the pivot and he’s going to boot a lot of routine plays.  I think this is good experience for him, but you won’t see Schumaker regularly manning second base until possibly next year.  (He will get some playing time at second in 2009 though).

You have to hand it to Skip, it hasn’t affected his hitting.   He is putting up a .303/.361/.485 (batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage) slash line and cementing himself at the top of the lineup.  As Brian Walton from “The Cardinal Nation” blogged about yesterday, this does not bode well for Colby Rasmus’s chances to make the team.  Schumaker really needs to stay at second to give Rasmus a starting spot.

Colby Rasmus

Duncan is hammering the ball (.333/.400/.600) right now and the Cardinals aren’t going to bring Colby up to the Majors in a quasi platoon in left field with Schumaker and Duncan.  For one thing, they all bat left handed, and for another, that wouldn’t be enough at bats for a young player to develop.  Plus, Rasmus hasn’t really hit (.242/.342/.364) or fielded well this Spring, and just when he was turning the corner, he strained his hamstring.  He’s got the talent to turn things around quickly and make the team, but he’s running out of time and is behind the group.  A lot of experts want to see him up no matter what on opening day, but I’m not one of those people.

I don’t want to seem like I’m down on the superprospect.   Rasmus is NOT a disappointment if he doesn’t make this team out of spring training.  You have to keep in perspective that he is only 22 years old and this would only be his college senior year.  Brett Wallace, our number 2 prospect, was just drafted last year and isn’t deemed close to being ready until 2010 (at the earliest).  Amazingly, they are the same age (born in the same month, 15 days apart), so Rasmus is still well ahead of schedule.  He does not need to be rushed to the major leagues and a couple of months in the minors can only do him good for his career in the long run.

We got to hold on to what we’ve got
If (When) Skip doesn’t make the transition to second base, what is the competition for the position?  We are not going to go out and trade for, or sign, a free agent 2nd basemen.  Joe Thurston looks like he has the inside track.  Not only does he have experience playing all over the field, he has put up a weird (and good) .269/.321/.577 line (low on base percentage, high slugging percentage).  He’s always had a lot of talent and was one of the Dodgers top prospects several years back, but he’s never put it together.  This may be the year (keep your fingers crossed, because he’s our best option to actually hit the ball).  Tyler Greene started out hot, but has cooled considerably to a .250/.286./.344 line and Brendan Ryan has barely got off the ground with a .222/.222/.300 line in 9 at bats.

Take My Hand and We’ll Make it I Swear
The conversion that is working out well is Joey Bombs (a.k.a. Marshall Joe Mather) and third base.  He’s taking full hold of his opportunity (and he’s gonna never let it go, oh!).  Mather is acting like he’s allergic to walks with his .313/.316/.563 line, but he’s slugging the ball well and playing a pretty good third base.  He can do a passable impersonation of Glaus until he returns, and is a great right handed bat off the bench.  As long as he doesn’t take a huge slide the rest of the way, he’s most likely going to be starting at third base on opening day.

Once upon a time not so long ago
Remember when we had a dominant Cy Young award winning pitcher at the top of our rotation?  Chris Carpenter seems to have found his stuff with 8 IP, O ER, 2K, 3BB, 4 H over the start of spring training.  Yes, that is a 0.00 ERA in 8 innings (with a WHIP of less than 1.00).  We’ve still got a long way to go before anointing him completely healthy, but he is my bold prediction for 2009.

The Redbird Blog had his turn at the UCB (United Cardinal Bloggers) roundtable this week and asked for the group’s bold predictions for 2009.  (Head over to his blog to see everyone’s predictions).  My prediction was that Chris Carpenter will start 30+ games this year and garner Cy Young votes.  Everyone keeps talking about Carp pitching around 15-25 games this year, but I think he has the same chances as the rest of our staff to pitch the entire year. I actually believe Carp has less risk than Wellemeyer this season. Wellemeyer’s substantial increase in innings pitched is a big red flag to me and cause for more concern.

Carpenter has looked great in spring training. elbow injuries are different than shoulder, and this is the reason we look at the Cardinals “injury reclamation projects” in such a negative light. None of his injuries seem to have the carryover effect when shown to be healthy (unlike Mark Mulder or Matt Clement). We’ve been burned before for getting our hopes up, but his injuries are different and cause for greater optimism.

We’ll give it a shot
I predict the Cardinals will go 92-70 this year with a Wild Card birth.  That’ s probably optimistic, but if injuries don’t kill this team, I think it will be good.  Our opening day lineup will be:
Schumaker (LF)
Ankiel (CF)
Pujols (1B)
Ludwick (RF)
Mather (3B)
Molina (C) (Age 27 season, he’s going to make a big leap this year)
Greene (SS)
Wainwright (SP)
Thurston (2B)

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Image provided by Dustin Mattison