Matt Holliday (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

I wish the Cardinals ownership would get off their fat wallets and do some…  (voice from a distance is inaudible)  What is that you say?   (he turns away from they keyboard) They just spent 17 million a year at 7 YEARS for Matt Holliday?  Wow.

Wow is a good place to start when discussing the deal the Cardinals gave Matt Holliday.  The ownership has done their part, now it’s time to roll the dice and see what happens. 

As first reported by Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman on Twitter,  the Cardinals will be paying the perennial All-Star $17 million a year for 7 years with an (unattainable) option for an 8th year at $17 million.  He has to finish in the top 10 of the MVP voting in year 7 (as a 37 year old) to reach the 8th year option.  That’s probably not going to happen, and is in the contract so  Holliday’s agent , Scott Boras can say he has a player option for year 8.

The Specifics
ESPN’s Buster Olney is reporting that the Holliday’s contract in 2010-’16 will actually be $15 million a year annually (present day value) with another $2 million a year in deferred payments (for $17 million total).  He’ll also have a 2017 buyout for around 1 million dollars, for a total contract value of $120 million.

My opinion is that the Cardinals paid what they needed to.  Did they overbid a little bit?  Probably, but not egregiously so.  Many people are saying they bid against themselves, but I don’t buy it.  There was always the option of Holliday changing demands to a 1-2 year contract for over 20 million.  In this scenerio we would have been bidding against the Yankees and Red Sox, and our chances would have shrunk dramatically.   Boras had a few tricks up his sleeve and the Cardinals handled the process well (in my opinion).

Would I rather have Jason Bay and his contract?  Actually, no.  Matt Holliday is a much better player (offensively AND defensively) and will probably age well in comparison. 

Playoff Chances and Needed Parts
This improves the Cardinals playoff chances dramatically.  The central division has probably become worse this off-season, and in some metrics I’ve seen, Holliday’s signing improves our odds by almost 25%.  With the health of the team as a major caveat, the Cardinals should be the division favorites for the next 2-3 years (at least).

With all of the Cardinals dead money easing off of the payroll this year (Greene, Glaus, Wellemeyer, etc.), the flexibility was/is there for 2010-11.  They will be paying around $90-$95 million in salaries for 2010 with only a few needs. 

The club must find a left handed bat off the bench (Ryan Church?), 5th starter (John Smoltz?), third baseman (Joe Crede?), backup centerfielder (Ryan Church?) and possibly a reliever (Kiko Calero?).  Some of these spots will have to be filled from within (David Freese, Joe Mather, Allen Craig, Jamie Garcia, Fernando Salas, Jon Jay?), but you may see another short term contract on a veteran player or two. 

The Future Problems
Things will become difficult in 2012.  The Cardinals will have a lot of money tied up in their top stars, and many of the “cost controlled” players right now (Schumaker, Rasmus, Ludwick, Molina), will be hitting free agency or arbitration.  They won’t be able to keep all of their core players without a significant increase in payroll at this time, and you won’t see any big money free agents (aside from Albert) for awhile.  The Hot Stove League will be pretty cool for the Cardinals over the next 5 years.

So What is Holliday Worth?
The best way I can show you what Matt Holliday is worth is through a statistic called Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  The definition of WAR can be found at Beyond the Boxscore, but in summary

WAR relies on counting stats (HRs, 2Bs, etc.) to be translated into rate stats (OBP, wOBA) and then combines these factors into value stats. The great thing about WAR is that it takes into account a player’s value both at the plate and in the field, adjusting it for position (left field/ 1st base bad, shortstop centerfield good) and park (St. Louis is virtually neutral, but Colorado is not), and compares it to a replacement player. 

They key to the definition is the replacement player.  It is roughly someone who could be called up from the minors for league minimum and do the same job (0 WAR).  How much is the minor league player worth compared to Matt Holliday?  Chuck Brownson from the Hard Ball Times and Viva El Birdos wrote a nice article with a pretty spreadsheet on Matt’s annual value over the life of the contract via a projection system called CHONE:

These are projections (or educated guesses) so anything could happen, but the Cardinals have to use projections to figure out a player’s worth when attempting to sign them.  We might as well use what we have to evaluate the deal.  The caveat is that the Cardinal statistical system is probably better than anything freely available to the public.  I bet their system shows he is worth it. 

The table shows that CHONE thinks Holliday will be worth roughly what the team is paying (though 2015 and 2016 will probably be difficult to stomach). 

The Value of Elite Talent
Some people will say that paying Holliday what he is worth is neither good nor bad (it’s just average), but I disagree.  I think there is a value in elite talent that is difficult to quantify.  For instance, would you rather have Lohse and De Rosa or Holliday and Allen Craig on the roster?  We’ll have both options, but the dollar values are roughly the same.

Holliday/ Craig will be making slightly less each year (over the next 2 years) and will help a team out much more effectively than those two players.  The Cardinals have a good chance to develop talent that replaces Lohse and De Rosa (in the next 2-3 years).  They have next to a zero chance (barring injury) that anyone from the minors will preform like Holliday during that same time period.  He’ll be in decline after that, but could still be a very valuable player (worth more than De Rosa’s WAR estimations in 2010-11 for instance).

All systems are pretty conservative.  They have to take into account injury and the history of how players age, but there is some cause for optimism.  Holliday’s WAR value over the last 4 years was 4.4, 8.0, 6.3, 5.7.  He probably won’t ever match his career year again, but he has a decent chance at 5.7-6.3. 

If Holliday can manage to duplicate what he did last year (5.7), for a year or 2, and age less dramatically than the conservative estimates, we could see a surplus in value that would make this contract a good one.  Of course if Holliday gets injured in year one, or hits like he did in the beginning of 2009 for the A’s, we’ll have our own Barry Zito, Alfonso Soriano or Vernon Wells contract that will hamstring the Cardinals for years. 

Conclusion
As a fan, you have to be optimistic about the signing.  Anything can happen and you can’t dwell on the negatives.  As an added bonus, this should also help us with negotiations for a certain first baseman who’s contract is up after 2011.  Anything that gives us a better chance to keep our future Hall of Famer in Cardinal red for life, is a major plus. 

What do you think?

Todd Wellemeyer

April began with a troubled bull pen and a offensive display that was most impressive.  The starting pitching was good with a few exceptions and late April saw a very impressive stretch of baseball that had Cardinal fans thinking this team was going to leave the rest of the central in the dust.

Then the May showers came.  The bull pen has been good, the offense and starting pitching have sputtered and the team is now in third place, two games behind the Brewers – what the hell?  It’s baseball and a quick wake up call for those of us with illusions of grandeur.  And don’t forget about the Reds and Astros folks…

The feel good stories of Barden and Thurston feel more like players that have been over exposed, although one might ask why after winning rookie of the month, Barden only had seven at bats during the last road trip?  Don’t get we wrong, I still like both, but they’re not everyday players.  K. Greene’s struggles have led to more playing time for first round pick T. Greene and perhaps even B. Ryan.  K. Greene’s huge year is looking more and more like a career offering and his defense has been less than advertised this year.  I like that Tony is seeing what the kids can do, but wonder what a player like Christian Guzman would look like wearing red?

Now one must point to the fact that losing Ludwick and Ankiel will/has led to some of the offensive woes, but really, Ludwick was the only one hitting.  Getting Ludwick back in the lineup will be a huge boost, but it still needs another power stick.  Duncan could be that stick, but the power is noticeably absent.  Personally, before a trade is made, I’d like to see what Brett Wallace can do at this level.  Can it really be any worse than what we’re currently getting from Thurston/Barden?  Chances are Wallace will struggle at first, but there are only a handful of prospects we see every so many years that handle the initial transition.  Pujols never looked back, Colby’s doing ok.  Let’s also remember Wallace went from college ball to AA in less than a year, and did more than fine.  If it doesn’t work, he’s humbled and sent back down to work on it.  But if he does…the offense looks much different.  If Glaus is able to come back, work him in and even better.

The starting pitching is a different matter.  Wainwright should be ok, I’ll hold my breathe every time Carp goes out and Lohse will be fine, if not what a #3 should be.  The questions surrounding Wellemeyer and Pineiro are greater.  Wellemeyer sports a 5.87 era and Pineiro is hovering around a low 4.17.  I’m not advocating a move here, but Wellemeyer has to be better than his seven walks yesterday and Pineiro seems to be trending down after riding his World Baseball Classic issues (I’m not going to call it a snub because the guys that took the rotation spots were better).

Again, I’m not saying we need to go sign Pedro, but if a few things don’t get sorted out in May and no moves are made, things will be interesting.  I’ve resigned myself to the fact that this team will hang around and hopefully be in a position to make one of those famous Tony September runs – let’s just hope we’re close enough.

Clark

Niko Vasquez (Photo by Bill Mitchell)

St. Louis Cardinals Director of Minor League Operations, John Vuch, sent this along from day one of the teams’ minor league exhibition schedule. These are just the highlights with my commentary in parenthesis.

Memphis/Springfield

Pitchers

Blake Hawksworth 4 IP, 3 hits, 2 runs, 0 BB, 2 K’s (I would really love to see “Hawks put it together)

Royce Ring one perfect inning, 1 K (Good to see, he will provide quality depth at Memphis)

Brad Furnish 2 hitless innings, one walk, one K

Ian Ostlund 2 scoreless innings, 1 hit, one K (still my sleeper to be a solid contributor)

Russ Haltiwanger one perfect inning (team’s lone Rule 5 selection)

Chuckie Fick 1 IP, 1 hit, 1 run, 2 BB (solid pitcher who is really overlooked)

Hitters

Jarrett Hoffpauir 2-for-2, 2 RBIs (Just keeps getting on base)

Antonio DeJesus 2-for-5 with a triple (Highly athletic yet overlooked prospect)

Brett Wallace 2-for-5 with an RBI (Batman just keeps on hitting)

Brandon Buckman doubled (Solid defender who I still really like)

Amaury Cazana was 1-for-3 with an RBI (FR folk hero gets his first of 2000 hits for 2009)

Tyler Henley, Bryan Anderson, Casey Rowlett, Mike Folli and David Freese also had hits

Palm Beach

Pitchers

PJ Walters 4 IP, 4 hits, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 K’s (His he the sixth starter?)

Luke Gregerson 1 IP, 2 hits, 1 R (Another talented RH reliever. Is he the PTBNL in the Greene trade?)

Lance Lynn 2 IP, 1 hit, 0 runs, 1 K (Look for a big year out of the 2008 supplemental pick)

Nick Additon 2 IP, 5 hits, 1 run, 1 K (With Garcia out, is he the top left-handed starter in the system?)

Mark Diapoules 2 IP, 2 hits, 1 run 1 BB (I am still not sure about this RHP)

Hitters

Curt Smith hit a two-run HR (Appy Player of the Year fresh off his WBC appearance)

Oliver Marmol and Charlie Kingrey doubled (Marmol is all glove and Kingrey is completely overlooked)

Pete Kozma one single in one at bat (Good to see future SS(?) get his first hit)

Jonathan Edwards was 1-for-3 (Great size to go along with great power)

Quad Cities #1 – 10, Quad Cities #2 – 0

Pitchers

QC#1 combined for a 2-hit shutout.  Hector Cardenas, George Brown and Ramon Delgado each threw two hitless innings, while Adam Veres allowed two hits in his two scoreless innings.

QC #1 hitters

Alex Castellanos was 3-for-5 with two doubles a run scored and an RBI (One of my personal faves)

Niko Vasquez was 2-for-2 with two walks, two runs scored and an RBI (Another fave who is primed for a big year)

Ryde Rodriguez was 2-for-4 with a double, run scored and two RBIs. (The first of the Cardinals big international signings is a tool-shed)

Beau Riportella and Osvaldo Morales each doubled. (Riportella really struggled in his first full pro season and Morales is just a professional hitter.)

QC #2 pitchers

Eric Fornataro 2 IP, 2 ER

Anthony Ferrara 2 IP, 2 ER, with 4 K’s (The team will bring him along slowly but he could become one of the top arms in the system)

Kevin Thomas 1.2 IP, 3 R, 2 ER

Dan Richardson one scoreless IP

Jorge Rondon 1 IP, 2 R, 1 ER

QC #2 hitters

Brett Lilley 1-for-3 with a walk

Yunior Castillo 1-for-2 with a walk (There’s a lot of buzz about this sure handed SS)
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Dustin Mattison

dustin@whiteyball.com

Rick Ankiel at the 2009 Winter Warmup

The Cardinals avoid arbitration with Rick Ankiel today, agreeing on a 1 year $2,825,000 contract.  The settlement was completed just hours before an arbitration hearing that would have determined his contract.

Michael Riehn

(Photo courtesy of Dustin Mattison)

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 2001 draft selected Dewon Brazleton with the third overall pick.  Rushed to the big leagues due to the Devil Rays lack of pitching, Brazelton never established himself and has recently bounced around organizations.  In 2007, Brazelton pitched for the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Double A Altoona where he went 5-5 with a 3.53 ERA.  He also pitched in four games for the Kansas City Royals’ Triple A Omaha where he went 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA.  Brazelton will 28 during the season so he is still young and still has a good arm.   He could be another one of Dave Duncan super reclamation projects. 

 The 35 year-old John Wasdin was recently with the Pirates Triple A Indianapolis.  In seven games, Wasdin posted a 1-1 record with a 6.37 ERA.  The former first round pick of the Oakland Athletics posted a 5.95 ERA in 12 relief appearances with the Pirates in 2007.   

This weekend it looked like Antonetti was coming to town.  I guess we will find out soon enough what happened there.

So far, I have mixed reviews for the moves Mozeliak has made.  Bringing back Izzy was a no brainer.  With the free agent class full of mediocre talent, it was acceptable to extend Pineiro.  But he  really overpaid for Springer.  I really hope his next move is not resigning Eck.  Eck is becoming much more of a liability due to injuries and I am totally sick of his pop gun arm.  But whether I agree with the moves or not, I am really glad to see his agressive approach in getting guys resigned.  How many times did Walt sit on his hands only to see our guy leave in the end and the team left scrambling to replace that player?

Just when you think things could be looking up, it feels like business as usual.  But let me say, I am going to keep an open mind and wish Mo the very best.

According to MLB.com, the St. Louis Cardinals have purchased the contract of Joe Mather.  The 25 year-old was the Cardinals third round selection (104 overall) in the 2001 amateur draft out of Mountain Pointe High School in Phoenix, Arizona.   

The tall, lanky outfielder had struggled staying healthy and was an after thought as far as Cardinal prospects were concerned.  He was assigned to Double A Springfield to start the year in 2007 and broke out in a big way.  During the month of April, Mather hit 10 home runs and slugged .797. In 64 games, he hit .303/.387/.607 with 18 homers and 46 RBIs. Mather twice won Texas Player of the Week honors. He was named a Texas League Mid-Season All-Star but was unable to attend the game due to his promotion to Memphis

Mather struggled early but did show some signs of life at Triple A, where he finished with a line of .241/.329/.443. Mather showed tremendous power, hitting 13 home runs and finishing with an isolated power (ISOP) of .202. For the season, Mather posted a line of .271/.357/.522 with 31 home runs and 77 RBIs.

To finish off a career year, Mather was selected to represent the Cardinal organization in the Arizona Fall League.  The Phoenix native appeared in six games hitting .286/.375/.286 before being shut down due to elbow tenderness.

The Cardinals were in danger of losing Mather in the Rule 5 draft but he will now be protected being named to the 40 man roster.

DeWitt and La Russa have reached agreement on a 3-yr deal… 1 pm news conference today at Busch Stadium.No GM has been hired yet … Obviously, though, La Russa must have a pretty good idea of who it will be or he wouldn’t make the deal with DeWitt. It could be that they have the list of GM candidates down to two or three guys, and La Russa would be comfortable with any of the choices – but that’s just me speculating.

Let’s hope there is an interview scheduled today with Cleveland’s Chris Antonetti.

Nice sign by the Cardinals.  Pineiro pitched well down the stretch and there really aren’t any better free agents out there.