Deadball Era Circa 2009

June 02, 2009 | mriehn | Comments 2

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by Michael Riehn
Whiteyball Staff

Albert Pujols, seen here scoring one of the Cardinals few runs in May

Watching the Cardinals try to scratch out runs in May/June is like waiting for paint to dry.  You know it’s going to happen eventually, but it can take an excruciating amount of time. Who is to blame for the poor run production?

Even without Troy Glaus and Khalil Green, this lineup is too good to barely score 3-4 runs per game.  In May, they were the only team with an on base percentage under .300.  That is putrid even on a bad hitting team, and unsustainable for this club.

Every contingency plan the Cardinals had counted on has failed, but there are some head scratchers to critique.  Many fans believe the culprit is roster construction and you have to say they have a valid point. The Cardinals have definitely been “outside the box” in how they have constructed their roster.

Brad Thompson hasn’t pitched in 17 days AND HAS OPTIONS FOR THE MINORS.  Why has he been on this team, especially during the great run of starting pitching?  I can understand why they have kept Boyer (who you just gave up something for and is out of options), but he should be the mopup man.  It’s redundant to have him and Thompson on the team.

We have also carried 5-6 middle infielders throughout the year.  They all show some promise, but are redundant in what they bring to the table.  Brian Barden started off well, but has been terrible of late.  Joe Thurston started off well, went ice cold and is red hot again.  Tyler Greene showed some fielding and some pop but is still a little raw with a penchant to strikeout.

Brendan Ryan has been good with the glove but has been hitting like Cesar Izturis (which isn’t a terrible combination, just not good for the lineup).  Skip Schumaker has hit OK and improved his fielding in May, but is still not close to average.  Khalil Greene has been MIA and should not be considered an option for 2009.

When looking over the options, Joe Thurston and Skip Schumaker have hit well enough for the position but neither can field where they are playing.  The rest of this group has been fielding really well, but not hitting quite enough to be plusses in the lineup.

You aren’t going to find help for your lineup in the middle infield (with this team or outside the organization), but I have a hard time blaming this group for the Cardinals failings.  Most teams have problems in the middle infield.  You can’t really blame them, except to say that we have too many of middle infielders clogging up pinch hitting roles.

Now let’s look at our supposed strength, our outfield:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	UZR/150
Ryan Ludwick	118	0.254	0.323	0.492	0.815	-7.0
Chris Duncan	160	0.256	0.346	0.438	0.779	-13.8
Colby Rasmus	148	0.243	0.311	0.426	0.737	32.5
Nick Stavinoha	44	0.250	0.261	0.409	0.670	-8.5
Rick Ankiel	95	0.221	0.299	0.358	0.657	2.0

Key:  AB = At Bats, AVG = Batting Average, OBP = On base percentage (.340+ is good), SLG = Slugging Percentage (.450+ is good), OPS = On base Plus Slugging (.800+ is good), UZR/150 = Ultimate Zone rating per 150 games (0 is average, above 0 is good)

Ludwick and Duncan have played poorly in the outfield.  Both are hitting decently, but not to the club’s expectations or needs.  Ludwick is finding his stroke after injury and his fielding was above average last year, so you have to expect him to come around.  Duncan is more worrisome.  In order to offset his defense, he MUST show some power.  He had major surgery and there is still a question of whether or not it will return.  He must have power in order to be more than a 4th outfielder/ pinch hitter.  He is the one to watch.

Ankiel has been abysmal since his torrid spring.  A .657 OPS is putrid, and he is really bringing the lineup down with him.  Unfortunately, Ankiel has always been a streaky hitter.  Just when he was turning the corner from his early season slump, he was injured, and he has not come back hot.  The club really should have put him on an injury rehab stint, but couldn’t afford to do this with all of the other holes.  Now they must find him at bats to get out of his slump without hurting the lineup (a difficult task).

Colby Rasmus has shown promise with his good on base percentage in April (.357) and a good slugging percentage in May (.447).  If he can put those two things together he could be a star when combined with his amazing fielding.   Unfortunately, the downside to him was his slugging in April (.305) and on base percentage in May (.256).  He is still a bit young to be counted on in this league, but has really outplayed everyone but Ludwick (when adding in defense).  Hopefully his great start to June will carry over with better consistency.

Almost everything has gone wrong for the Cardinals hitting, but there are a few bright spots.  Albert is still the best hitter in the game and Ludwick can slug with the best of them.  Aside from those two, we have one other hitter who has proved his value.

While Joe Thurston is not the answer at third base due to his below average fielding (he is an excellent fielder at 2nd base), he has shown a great ability to take a walk, and he has surprising doubles power.  His .370 OBP (on base percentage) is second on the team and he is 3 points from tying Chris Duncan for 3rd place in slugging percentage (.435, behind Pujols and Ludwick).

While this achievement shows how bad the rest of our hitting has been (a .435 slugging percentage is almost 3rd?), it also shows what a good find he has been.  Don’t pay any attention to the .256 batting average, Thurston has been a plus player and has more than replaced the Aaron Miles utility role.

Aside from Pujols and Thurston, nobody is hitting to their capability.  There is a group of hitters that must perform better in order for this offense to excel.  With everyone talking about our hole at third base, I think they are missing the point.  If you want to know why the Cardinals haven’t been hitting, look past 3rd base into the outfield.  You will find the answer there.

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