The End of the Innocence
By Michael Riehn
Whiteyball Staff
Colby Rasmus
If you have been reading this blog over the past 3 months, you know that my favorite topic for debate is Colby Rasmus. When is/was the best time to call up the super prospect? Have we rushed him (and his arbitration clock) to soon?
The consensus with fans, statisticians and scouts seem to be for his arrival, and he has shown flashes of his immense potential. His game winning double last Sunday night helped the Cardinals avoid the sweep versus the Reds and he has shown many positives this year. Do the numbers agree with our perception? Should he have been called up at the start of the season?
Rasmus has shown a smooth swing and effortless fielding ability in his brief time in the majors. His is the rare case where scouts and stat guys fall in love with the same player.
It is easy to see why scouts like him. He has everything they look for in a player: speed, defense, a beautiful line drive swing, and a strong arm.
Statisticians swooned over him after he put up a .275/ .381/ .551 slash line (Batting Average, On Base Percentage/ Slugging Percentage) in AA ball during his age 20 season in 2007. His combination of plate discipline (taking walks) and slugging are rare at his age, especially for someone that plays a premium defensive position (centerfield), and plays it well.
What does the Rasmus report card read for the young season?
His fielding has been dynamic. I have talked about UZR before to compare player’s fielding. UZR stands for Ultimate Zone Rating: (The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.) UZR/150 projects what a player would do over a 150 game schedule. Thus, if a player is plus 2 runs after 15 games, he would be plus 20 after 150 (10 x 15 = 150; 2 x 10 = 20).
Colby Rasmus would save 43.4 runs over a full season.
Let us view that again for it to sink in: He is 43.4 runs ABOVE AVERAGE. That is amazingly good. The top qualifying centerfielder last year was 16.1 runs above average, and in centerfield, Rasmus projects to a plus 34.9 UZR/150 on the year. The man can take away a lot of hits and is one of the best centerfielders in the game. For comparison’s sake, Ankiel is 2.7 runs above average. (Off topic: Why is Ankiel starting in centerfield when Rasmus is playing?)
Hitting has been a different story. Colby has put up a a slash line of .256/.337/.349 that is truly terrible. He’s getting on base OK, but he’s hitting like a backup middle infielder and Aaron Miles could outslug him. His power WILL develop, but it is not there yet. Would a month of feasting off of triple A pitching been good for him? He would be up regardless with Ankiel’s injury, but he might have more confidence, and we would not have lost a year before free agency. Has his defense been that good?
A month in the minors would have probably meant that Rasmus would have had one more year before the all important arbitration year. Has the April sacrifice been worth it? This is a difficult question. On the surface, I would say no. There is a chance calling Rasmus up to soon will stunt his growth and his bad hitting outweighs the month of great fielding and baserunning.
After delving a little deeper, there are two important reasons why I believe it has been a good idea. The competition has been horrible. Brian Barton played his way out of town. Joe Mather has had an abysmal spring training and has been even worse in AAA (.129/ .194/ .200). John Jay was great out of spring training, but has had a horrible start in Memphis (.223/.286/ .259).
The second reason is the most important: The Cardinals are in first place. If Rasmus’s speed and defense have helped the Cardinals to the lead in the division, that trumps the added year before free agency. I’m not sure we couldn’t have found a decent stopgap over the first month (and play Ankiel, Duncan and Ludwick more), but you can’t argue with the results.
I’d have to give the Cardinals the benefit of the doubt and say that it has been a good call. If Rasmus’s hitting doesn’t get buried while Ankiel is out, the experience COULD be good for him. La Russa has been playing him at the right pace to start the season so that he doesn’t get into any prolonged slumps. He has always been a slow starter in every level that he’s been promoted to. The experience in the majors could make him a better player and he could start turning it around.
Of course, if the Cardinals don’t make the playoffs this year, I have the right to change my mind.
Photo courtesy of Dustin Mattison
Filed Under: Baseball • Uncategorized
About the Author: I am a Cardinal fan, from a small town in Missouri and grew up listening to the Whiteyball teams of the 1980s (but still love the Tony LaRussa version). Currently living outside of St. Louis, I am a partial season ticket holder with a great group of friends.
I hold the position of Director of Sales and Marketing for a hydraulic press manufacturer and serve on a local youth baseball board of directors. Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/mriehn
Add in that he likely would have gotten the call when Ankiel went down anyway and chances are we didn’t save much time or have him at Memphis very long.
And with his history of slow starts, I’d rather him start the year in the bigs and get that out of the way than come up in June or July and then have a slow start.