A Serious Number

My son had a birthday yesterday and reminded me how much I missed Cardinal baseball… with a TV commercial.  He’s been running around the house letting everyone know that “6… is a serious number“.  I’ve taken a brief hiatus from blogging since then end of the season (aside from my hydraulic press blog), but it’s time to get serious.  Could 6 be the key to the Cardinal’s hot stove league season?

The Heat is On
The Cardinals kicked off their free agency by signing Brad Penny to a one year contract.  Penny replaces Joel Pineiro’s innings in the rotation and is an upgrade AND downgrade wrapped into one (round) package.  Penny won’t replicate the season of the ground ball machine circa 2009, but he may be better than Peneiro in 2010.

Penny has one of the best fastballs in the league (his 93.4 MPH average is top five in the league) and will have Dave Duncan’s tutelage without the extra 3-4 years on the contract.  Bill James predicts 12-11, 4.17 ERA, 205 IP for Pineiro and 10-11, 4.01 ERA, 182 IP  for Penny.

A good sign.

A Buyer’s Market
At the beginning of free agency, it looked like the Cardinals didn’t have a chance at re-signing Matt Holliday.  The numbers were scary (and true), like 8 (the number of year’s Scott Boras was wanting), 39 (the age of Matt Holliday the year after an 8 year contract) and 22 (the average annual value that Scott Boras was originally looking for).

Scott Boras was doing what he always does, but for once, the numbers being floated around scared EVERYBODY, even the large market teams.  The Cardinals offered a 5 year 80 million dollar contract (16 million) and the Red Sox followed it up with a 5 year 82.5 million (16.5 million).  Boras turned them both down and watched the market collapse.  The Red Sox went a different way and used their money to sign free agent pitcher John Lackey. 

The Yankees are the elephant in the room that make Scott Boras who he is.  They are always driving up the market, but have not helped Boras this year.  He didn’t count on the trade for Curtis Granderson, and the Yanks have showed a modicum of restraint, holding their budget to around 200 million (though they may still sign Johnny Damon). 

This isn’t just a bluff.  The Yankees cost for free agents aren’t like other clubs due to a steep luxury tax.  They spend a lot of money, but they lose a lot every year too.  If they sign Holliday to 18 million, they are taxed 40%, meaning they are really signing him for 25 million (plus their first round draft pick).  This looks like it is even too rich for their (cold, heartless, greedy) blood.

The smaller market teams are pulling back (aside from Seattle, who signed Chone Figgins), and have become conservative due to the econony.  Mark DeRosa signed a 2 year deal with the Giants (12 million) and Atlanta had to trade Javier Vazquez to cut costs.

The Cardinals have been keeping costs down in years past once they identified Holliday as their target for 2010.  They’ve got enough dry powder to compete with the big boys, especially with the poor economy, but they don’t want to fall into a classic Boras trap.  The only serious player in the hunt for Holliday’s services was the Mets… until they signed Jason Bay to his 4 year 66 million dollar deal (16.5 million per) with a vesting 5th year option for $14 million.

So what do the Cardinals do?   They can’t wait forever on Holliday as they still need a right handed reliever and a backup centerfielder (along with their left field bat).  Contrary to popular belief, their isn’t much of a plan B on the market.

The best player available (not counting Holliday) is Adrian Beltre, and most of his value is through his superb defense at third (think Scott Rolen). Jermaine Dye and Xavier Nady may have intriguing bats, but they give it all back through poor defense in this stage of their career.

The real plan B is Felipe Lopez, who provides a great on base percentage and terrible glove at multiple positions.  He won’t provide any protection for Pujols, or help for our groundball staff, but he would get on base in front of the machine and be a big addition to the offense.  Johnny Damon is the only other impact bat on the market, but he is over priced and a Scott Boras client (making it tough to use him as leverage).

The Cardinals need Holliday and Holliday needs the Cardinals, but if the team increases the value of their offer, they are bidding against themselves.  Unfortunately, Scott Boras will want to save face and he’s not going to take less annual value than Bay.

The Contract
Bay has crystallized the market for Holliday.  To get the deal done, Boras will want an offer of 5 years with a vesting option for a 6th year at almost 16.67 million per year.  The 6th year is the key.  That will get his contract above Bay’s and make him a 100 million dollar player (with the option).  Think 5 years 16.5 million per year with an option year for $17.5 million.  At the very least, he won’t make less than $16.5 million over 6 years.

The 100 million dollar deal wouldn’t be a bad contract, especially in the beginning (Holliday is worth around 24 million next year with most projection systems), but I don’t see how the Cardinals can increase the offer on his contract without someone else pushing the deal. 

The Cardinals have the highest contract on the table at 5 years 80 million (16 million per year) and they would be foolish to increase it without another bidder. That won’t get it done, because it is basically what Bay signed for.  This means that we won’t see a resolution soon.

Without a second team, Holliday will remain unsigned until Spring Training.  The only other option for Boras is to change his tactics and have Holliday sign a 1 year deal to hit the market again next year.  If he did this, you would see the Yankees and Red Sox back into the picture, and the deal would be for over 20 million.  This option will happen before Holliday accepts the 5/80 contract and is the only way I see the Cardinals not ending up with the slugger.

Will the Cardinals increase their offer to get a deal done or will Boras change tactics?  It will be interesting to see who blinks first.

“Dorrel Norman Elvert “Whitey” Herzog, the favorite son of New Athens, Ill., and perhaps the most popular manager in Cardinals’ history, was elected to the baseball Hall of Fame this morning in voting conducted by a special Veterans Committee which met on Sunday here.

The 78-old-year Herzog, the 10th person to manage the Cardinals to be so honored, will be inducted into the Hall next July 25 in Cooperstown, N.Y.”

Congratulations to Mr. Herzog, one of the reasons I love this game so much.

No word on any additional Holliday shopping, pardon the pun, at the moment.

Clark

The Cardinals New Hitting Coach

“I’m here to talk about the past.”  Those are the words Cardinal fans are longing to hear from their fallen slugger.  Will Big Mac finally clear the air and put the issue behind him (and the rest of Cardinal Nation)?  For the first time in many years, this enlightenment could happen soon, and the Cardinals may get a top hitting coach in the process.  So what’s the issue?  It sounds like a win/ win right?

The Greatest Show on Earth

McGwire was the most entertaining player in baseball for a period of time in the late nineties… and he was a CARDINAL!  The majestic home runs, midwestern values and a soft heart for charity were a staple to his character long before Albert Pujols was a gleam in a Cardinal fan’s eye.

It is said that when they opened the books to the Sammy Sosa foundation, Mark McGwire donated more money than Sosa did to his own organization.  He seemed to do things out of the kindness of his heart, instead of playing for the public and media.  His fierce privacy was a nice attribute instead of the curse that it is today.

Big Mac even left the team before the fans could sour on him, walking away from a huge contract when he knew he couldn’t play at a high level anymore.

That Was When I Ruled the World

He could do no wrong… until that fateful day before congress.  McGwire looked foolish on capitol hill and everyone could see it.  He took the most heat and abuse on the steroids issue, and became the face of the problem.  He was subjected to ridicule from the public and media alike.

In retrospect, he now looks like the only person who didn’t incriminate himself on that fateful day.  We now know the problem was everywhere.  What he didn’t admit to is most likely very bad, but it was more common than we were led to believe.  It’s obvious that he did something wrong, and that taints his accomplishments as a player.

McGwire has honored many of the commitments from that day, but he has done things in his typical low key fashion.  Don Hooten has stated that McGwire has given a lot of money through his steroid awareness foundation (Taylor Hooton Foundation), but he has not worked to build awareness regarding the situation through his stature.  He’s largely been a recluse from the spotlight, and this works against his “public redemption”.

Is it Worth the Trouble?

Why would we want the circus of McGwire as a hitting coach?  Shouldn’t we just let him fade into the sunset?  The answer is this:  He may be good at the job.  Players swear by his teachings (and video work) and he has had a lot of success. The Cardinals weren’t the only team interested in his service, as the Rockies had made him an offer too.

What if he’s able to help our underachieving hitting team get better?  Players respect him even more than La Russa (which is saying a lot).  You won’t get someone tuning him out (like Hal McRae last year) and there are many techniques this team needs to work on.

While the PED issue should be taken into consideration, it is just a portion of who McGwire is as a person and he can still be a contributor to the organization. Many of the great values he showed as a player, would be perfect for this team.

The mistake should be taken into context.  If McGwire talks about his involvement with steroids (like A-Rod, Andy Petite, Jason Giambi, Manny Ramirez and Rick Ankiel), this will be a minor footnote by mid-season.  If he doesn’t, it MAY be a circus, but after awhile it will probably die down too (it will just take longer).

Remember, he is not chasing records and is not a player out in front of the fans anymore.  He will be more visible, but more along the lines of Dave Duncan (who rarely gives interviews) and not Tony LaRussa or Albert Pujols. Admitting his demons in public would be nice (especially since he pledged to help fight the issue), but it is not necessary to do this job.

I Do Solemnly Swear to Tell The Whole Truth…

I don’t think McGwire needs a full confession of everything sin he has committed to get past this.  An apology, a vague reference of what he did (ala Giambi) and some show of humility would be enough to end the constant media speculation and put the past behind him with a majority of the people.

His employer (the Cardinals and MLB), coworkers (Cardinals) are what are important, and they seem to respect him and have moved past the issue.  The fans are overwhelmingly supportive with over 80% in favor of the move (out of 6,000) in a recent Post Dispatch poll (and he hasn’t even apologized), but fan (or even media) support doesn’t matter as much for a coach.

I think it is worth a shot to see what he can do.  The distraction could prove detrimental, but there is so much to gain from having him part of the organization again.  Hopefully, he will start out with a confession, and then work to make the Cardinals a more patient hitting team than last year (Bottom third in walks, bottom half in on base percentage).  At the very least, he makes next year that much more interesting.

(Plus, it wouldn’t hurt if he talked his buddy, Matt Holliday, into resigning with the team.)

First, the Toronto Blue Jays claimed 2B Jarrett Hoffpauir off waivers yesterday.  The 26-year-old got a meager 16 PAs in just 8 games at the ML level in 2009, and didn’t figure to be a core asset going forward.  He did have a nice little season at AAA, hitting .291/.357/.486 in just over 400 PAs (.370 wOBA).  Unfortunately, he is a far below average defender by all accounts, and, while solid, his bat isn’t enough to overcome that deficiency in the big show.

Bigger news came today though, as it was announced that Matt Scherer and Joe Thurston were outrighted and Brad Thompson was given his release.  For a good rundown of what exactly this means from an operational standpoint, there is a good summary here.  Basically Scherer and Thurston were removed from the 40-man, whereas Thompson is now free to sign to with any team.

Scherer, if you recall, was a 16th round draft pick in 2004, and posted solid numbers in Memphis this year (73.2 IP, 3.54 ERA, 6.11 K/9, 2.78 K/BB).  The power righty probably got a little lucky though as his FIP was 4.02, and at 26 isn’t getting any younger.  I think the chances of anyone selecting him in the Rule 5 draft are small, as few teams are going to have a spot on their 25-man roster to take a flier on a relatively common commodity (average RH reliever).

Thurston and Thompson are guys we are more familiar with, but that doesn’t mean we will exactly miss their contributions.  Thursty Joe provided a whopping 0.2 Wins Above Replacement in 124 games, being as close to the definition of “freely available talent” as possible.  He is a multiple AAA all-star, and I think its safe to say that’s where he belongs.  The additions of DeRosa and Lugo made his contributions virtually irrelevant, and I think the fanbase can rest a little easier knowing his baserunning gaffes will be at bay, at least for the time being.

Brad Thompson’s release shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.  He is eligible for arbitration this offseason for the first time in his career, and paying anything more than the minimum for his 4.89 FIP just isn’t good business given his role as mop-up long reliever (which can be filled by just about any pitcher in the system).  The only thing that we may miss is the look on our friends’ faces when they see him on the mound and ask why we have a 13-year-old in the game.  Don’t get me wrong – he is a friendly face in the bullpen, and is well-liked – but keeping him around is not in the best interests of the club.

That pretty much sums up the first wave of transactions, but rest assured that many more are on the way.  Bigger decisions involving Holliday and DeRosa are looming in the coming months, as is final word that Rick Ankiel is no longer a Cardinal.  It is really an interesting time to be a Cardinal fan, as decisions in the coming months are going to illustrate the ultimate direction ownership and management want to take in the next few seasons.

So, naturally, I got to surfing.  Actually came across something pretty cool, called tilt-shift photography.  It’s a way to make real life photos look like miniature models.  Nothing to do with baseball, or Game 5, or hot stove banter, but it is one way to make Busch Stadium look really cool (click on photo for full size):

My amateur hack-jobs have nothing on the ones I linked to above, but still pretty fun.  If you have photoshop you can make especially gnarly ones.  For the rest of us, there is a free tool here that doesn’t require a software download or anything (and is what I used to make these).

Hopefully this amuses you enough to get you to Game 5.  Then Chase Utley can do the rest.

all photos shamelessly stolen from the internet

Gary Matthews Jr. is disgruntled and delusional:

“I don’t expect to be back; it’s time to move on,” outfielder Gary Matthews Jr. said as he packed his belongings in the team’s Angel Stadium clubhouse today. “I’m ready to play for an organization that wants me to play every day. This organization has other plans, and that’s OK.”

Initial indications of interest show that Matthews is highly sought after.  I mean, the guy is just barely worse than your average minor leaguer!  I’m sure teams are going to be lining up to take on his $10/m a year contract and give him a starting job (as long as he promises to keep mashing to the tune of .250/.336/.381 while being 18 runs worse than the average major league outfielder on defense).   Seriously though, he is available just in time for the roster deadline for fall beer league softball teams everywhere.  What a pickup that would be.

Milton Bradley is disgruntled and delusional too, but Nick Steiner (aka vivaelpujols) shows that, unlike Matthew, Milton is actually really good at baseball.  Awesome visuals and as usual top-notch analysis.  The gist:

The fact that Bradley has such a bad year – and it wasn’t even that bad – can be placed solely on a huge drop in ISO from his previously established norms. His plate discipline and contact skills were just as good as they were in 08 and the year before that, and there is no evidence that the drop in ISO is anything “real”. Despite the personality problems, teams are apparently lining up to try and steal Bradley away from Jim Hendry because he is still a very good player.

Former Cardinals hitting instructor Hal McRae is ready to move on.  Word is Ax Men would like to give him a chance to really use his talents and teach how to hack.

"NICELY DONE SAMSON! Now that was an aggressive swing!"

Now this is fandom and dedication.  I’m pretty sure I was conceived this way back when Darrell Porter was the apple of my Mom’s eye.

Enough is enough – is it time yet??  Let’s go Yankees!

"HI MR. BASEBALL. I AM GOING TO TURN YOU INTO A DIAMOND FOR THIS NICE MAN."

Finally, Mark McGwire is a brand name associated with St. Louis Cardinal baseball again.  No longer a steroid-fueled pariah, he is undoubtedly anxious to not talk about the past and resume his life of contribution to the game.  His role as hitting coach hopefully will be viewed as an offering of an olive branch to fans and the media after his past transgressions.

But, honestly, who cares about any of that?  I mean, sure there is going to be some media attention and some standing ovations and some idiots yelling at Colin Cowherd, but that has nothing to do with Mac’s performance as a hitting instructor.  The guy did steroids like ten years ago.  He also hit 135 man shots in two seasons.  Steroid use or not, he was simply amazing.  The knowledge he can transfer from his 583 four-base hit experience will certainly improve the offensive woes of this Cardinal team.  Right?

Not exactly.  It is a mistake to assume that someone who was great in the battlefield will be great leading troops.  It is certainly not unusual for someone who experienced great success as a player to be utterly incompetent in every non-playing aspect of the game (see: Thomas, Isiah; Morgan, Joe).

For an example closer to home, Dave Duncan never threw a pitch in his career, yet he is widely regarded as one of the best pitching coaches of all time.  Dunc can identify problems and deconstruct hitters not because he sat at 95 with a plus yakker at age 25, but rather that he understands the simplicity of batter vs. pitcher. The most basic tenets of his pitching philosophy are to keep the ball in the yard and avoid the free pass.  By focusing on these goals and letting the defense do the rest, guys like Joel Pineiro have resurrected their careers under Duncan by keeping the ball down in the zone and forcing opponents to hit their way on.

So, if our hall of fame pitching coach is preaching the benefits of avoiding walks and making guys put the ball in play, why the hell is our future saying things like this:

Rasmus said he’s supposed to think swing, not walk. (…) “I don’t like walking,” Rasmus said. “I’m trying to hit.”

This is evidence of a serious disconnect in baseball comprehension in the Cardinal clubhouse.  It seems to me that if the two were ever to face each other, Colby Rasmus : Joel Pineiro :: lasagna : Garfield.  And it’s not just Rasmus.  Cardinals players are constantly quoted about “being aggressive” – if Hal McRae had twitter he’d make it a trending topic on his own.  The 2009 Cardinals walked in just 8.8% of their plate appearances, good for 20th in MLB and 12th in the NL (and this figure is largely supported by Albert’s 16.8% rate).  Five regulars had BB% lower than 8% – Ludwick, DeRosa, Rasmus, Ankiel, and Ryan.  This is simply unacceptable when the man who has it all figured out is literally sitting in the dugout giving this information away.  It was time for  McRae to go.

"Be vewwy, vewwy quiet. I'm hunting walkers!"

In essence, McGwire will be judged by his ability to convince his hitters to become Duncan’s worst nightmare.  He isn’t going to hold a clinic on the Monster Smash this Saturday and suddenly turn everyone into sluggers.  Pure talent and superhuman power can’t be transferred simply by osmosis.  But he does bring an outstanding approach, evidenced by his career 17.6% BB rate and .394 OBP despite just a .263 career batting average (I know what you are thinking, but just 4% of all balls he saw during his career were of the intentional variety).  Now, I have no idea if he will be able to effectively communicate his method to the hitters.  But he can’t do any more harm than Hal’s “aggressiveness” did.

Here’s to hoping for the anti-Duncan.

Inside Pulse’s Question:
Is it time to let Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan walk?

Each year, more people begin to ask this question. It’s gotten to the point where other teams are waiting to announce staff changes until the Cardinals to; rumor had it the Reds were waiting to announce Dick Pole’s replacement until the Cardinals were eliminated from the playoffs, in case they could get Duncan. It was also rumored that they’d have no problem dismissing Dusty Baker if Tony LaRussa was available.

LaRussa is a hall of famer; Duncan is the highest paid pitching coach in baseball. Both are great for the team; both also have faults.

Whiteyball Comment (Michael Riehn):I think there is one simple way to answer this question: Who has proven to be a better manager and pitching coach (that the Cardinals could go out and get) that would replace La Russa and Duncan? I don’t see anyone that has proven to be better.

The popular answer is Oquendo, but why? Does anyone have any insight into his managing of the Puerto Rican team that gives them confidence in his abilities? We know he has not shown the greatest media abilities (see the Joel Pineiro situation). His language skills have improved, but I don’t see him spinning yarns ala Whitey Herzog.

He has been schooled by La Russa and Herzog. He’s not going to be much different than them. Why do we think he will (in his first managing job) buck the industry trends for more new age thinking (La Russa is still on the leading edge of this). Why do we want to give up one of the best third base coaches in the business (we’d have to replace him) and give him less time to spend with the infielders? (Oquendo hasn’t exactly been on the fast track to manage)

Successful managers (Joe Maddon?) are signed to their teams for long term deals or wouldn’t want to leave their current situation.

For all their foibles, we often time forget La Russa/ Duncan’s many strengths (veteran pitchers, keeping bench players active and starters fresh, protecting players, keeping everyone playing hard, respect from players, etc.). They aren’t great with bad bullpens or young pitchers (though they HAVE developed some), but they also build character in their young players (you may call it the doghouse, I call it letting them prove themselves). We seldom see a La Russa player dogging it.

La Russa may be the best manager in the business for Brendan Ryan (he’s more serious and dedicated) and Colby Rasmus seems to have checked his cockiness into a more “quite confidence” tone. You earn your loyalty with his regime and he will return it in spades.

Change for change sake is almost never a good idea. If we are going to replace them, we need a solid reason for doing so. I haven’t seen this reasoning yet, and La Russa/ Duncan have proven to be successful (even with their admitted quirks).

The United Cardinal Bloggers are having our annual roundtable discussion with questions and debate from several of our authors over the next 10 days. The blogger of the day proposes a question on e-mail, everyone takes a day to respond to it and offer responses to the question.  The first question was from yours truly regarding the value of Matt Holliday.  Question and Answers from the group are below.

Whiteyball Question:

How much should the Cardinals spend to sign Matt Holliday?  (Please give your answer in total value and average annual value.)  What is your Plan B if they don’t resign him?

Does the fact that we gave up Brett Wallace+ to add Holliday, or that he qualifies as a type A free agent (First round draft pick plus supplemental pick between first and second round), factor into your decision?

Remember, that Holliday IS one of the top players in the league and will be paid as such.  He’ll be 30 years old in 2010 and is in the prime of his career.  He had the 16th highest OPS+ last year, the 13th best in 2008 and the 12th best in 2007.  The fielding metrics have him above average.  You can’t say that he is only worth 12 million dollars per year (in value or to the Cardinal team).

His WAR (wins above replacement) value was 5.6 in 2009 per Fangraphs.  Fangraphs estimated (in 2008) that each WAR point is worth 4.5 million dollars (4.5 x 5.6= $25.2 million).  In 2008:  6.2 WAR (28 million), 2007:  7.9 WAR (32.2 million).  This gives you a frame of reference for what the advanced statistics say he is worth (and you know Scott Boras knows the advanced statistics).  The highest money an outfielder has made (per season) is Manny Ramirez (at 22.5 million).

Resources (Cot’s Baseball Contracts)
Highest Paid Players of all time

Total Contract Value:
1. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)
3. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10)
4. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)
5. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15)
6. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08)
7. Miguel Cabrera, $152,300,000 (2008-15)
8. Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11)
9. Johan Santana, $137,500,000 (2008-13)
10. Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14)
11. Vernon Wells, $126,000,000 (2008-14)
12. Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13)
13. Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08)
14. Jason Giambi, $120,000,000 (2002-08)
15. Carlos Beltran, $119,000,000 (2005-11)
16. Ken Griffey Jr., $116,500,000 (2000-08)
17. Kevin Brown, $105,000,000 (1999-2005)
18. Carlos Lee, $100,000,000 (2007-12)
19. Albert Pujols, $100,000,000 (2004-10)
20. Carlos Zambrano, $91,500,000 (2008-12)
21. Mike Piazza, $91,000,000 (1999-2005)
22. Barry Bonds, $90,000,000 (2002-06)
23. Torii Hunter, $90,000,000 (2008-12)
24. Chipper Jones, $90,000,000 (2001-06)
25. Scott Rolen, $90,000,000 (2003-10)

Average Annual Value (all time):
1. Roger Clemens, $28,000,022 (2007)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $27,500,000 (2008-17)
3. Alex Rodriguez, $25,200,000 (2001-10)
4. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)
5. Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)
6. Manny Ramirez, $22,500,000 (2009-10)
7. Mark Teixeira, $22,500,000 (2009-16)
8. Roger Clemens, $22,000,022 (2006)
9. Manny Ramirez, $20,000,000 (2001-08)
10. Miguel Cabrera, $19,037,500 (2008-15)
11. Derek Jeter, $18,900,000 (2001-10)
12. Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)
13. Andruw Jones, $18,100,000 (2008-09)
14. Barry Bonds, $18,000,000 (2002-06)
Roger Clemens, $18,000,000 (2005)
Ryan Howard, $18,000,000 (2009-11)
Torii Hunter, $18,000,000 (2008-12)
Sammy Sosa, $18,000,000 (2002-05)
Ichiro Suzuki, $18,000,000 (2008-12)
Vernon Wells, $18,000,000 (2008-14)
Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13)
15. Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12)
16. Jason Giambi, $17,142,857 (2002-08)
17. Jeff Bagwell, $17,000,000 (2002-06)
Carlos Beltran, $17,000,000 (2005-11)
Carlos Delgado, $17,000,000 (2001-04)
Alfonso Soriano, $17,000,000 (2007-14)

Outfielders
The highest-paid active outfielders, by average annual value:
Manny Ramirez, $22,500,000 (2009-10)
Manny Ramirez, $20,000,000 (2001-08)
Andruw Jones, $18,100,000 (2008-09)
Torii Hunter, $18,000,000 (2008-12)
Ichiro Suzuki, $18,000,000 (2008-12)
Vernon Wells, $18,00,000 (2008-13)
Carlos Beltran, $17,000,000 (2005-11)
Alfonso Soriano, $17,000,000 (2007-14)
Carlos Lee, $16,666,667 (2007-12)
Magglio Ordonez, $15,000,000 (2005-09)
J.D. Drew, $14,000,000 (2007-11)
Vladimir Guerrero, $14,000,000 (2004-08)
Johnny Damon, $13,000,000 (2006-09)
Hideki Matsui, $13,000,000 (2006-09)
Bobby Abreu, $12,800,000 (2003-07)
Kosuke Fukudome, $12,000,000 (2008-11)
Jose Guillen, $12,000,000 (2008-10)
Aaron Rowand, $12,000,000 (2008-12)
Matt Holliday, $11,500,000 (2008-09)
Nick Markakis, $11,016,667 (2009-14)
Jermaine Dye, $11,000,000 (2008-09

ANSWERS

Kevin Tooke,  Whiteyball: I think Holliday is going to command something (in the range of) 5/95 or 6/108, and not with the Redbirds.

Trey, The Cardinal Virtue:

I think if you look at the top paid outfielders, you’d have to say Holliday isn’t quite the hitter that Manny is (or at least was) and also takes a knock for not being a centerfielder like most of the other top guys.

The most comparable guys on that list to me are Carlos Lee and Soriano and I’d rather have Holliday than either of them.  They were both younger than Holliday when they hit free agency I believe, but I’d say Holliday rates a 5-6 year deal at 17-18 million per year comparing him to other top outfielders.

Taking top figure in both areas, that means six years at 108 million total.  That seems like a huge investment, and I’d be hard-pressed to say its worth it.  Look at some of the deals on that list like Soriano’s and Vernon Wells for instance and the way they’ve regressed since signing those deals.

Unfortunately, the only other comparable bat on the market this year is Jason Bay, and you have to think the Red Sox will pay around that amount to keep him, so I’m not sure we have much choice.  We need to show Albert we are willing to pay to keep a winning team.

Plan B I think would to be to move Shu back to left field and sign a good 2B like Orlando Hudson plus re-sign DeRosa at third and take the draft picks Holliday would give us.  That would be cheaper, and would give us better team defense and team speed, but not too much in the power department.

A tough quandry.  I would go with Holliday, but it’s not my money of course.

Eugene Tierney, Inside Pulse:

This is a problem for the Cardinals.  They’ll have quite a bit of money coming off the payroll (my figure is about $42MM or so), but are looking at a lot of raises (Wainwright, Schumaker, Molina, Ludwick to name a few, I’m figuring $12MM or so).

They also need at least 1 starter, 3B (depending on DeRosa), LF (if Holliday isn’t retained), 4th OF, back up C, and a bullpen arm or 2 (one possibly a closer).  I’m guessing Jaime Garcia and Mitch Boggs will be in contention for one of the roster spot, Matt Pagnozzi and Bryan Anderson for back up catcher, and Joe Mather, Jon Jay, Allen Craig and Shane Robinson for 4th outfielder.  David Freese will be at 3B if DeRosa isn’t back.

They will have the resources to re-sign Holliday, but will it limit what else they will do?  I’m thinking it’ll take $20MM per for 6 years to keep him around; the highest the Cardinals should go should be 5 years, $15MM per.  I want something to show for giving up Wallace and Mortensen; we’ll at least get 2 picks.

The other side of the coin is Albert.  Signing Holliday will show the team is committed to winning, but will it limit what they can offer him?

Some numbers to think about…

Carpenter $15MM option
Lohse $11.875MM
Molina $7MM option
Wainwright $9MM option

These are the 2012 salary commitments.  I’d figure Carp will get the $1MM buyout at that point, but we’ll pick up Molina’s and Wainwrights.  That’s roughly $30MM committed.  Schumaker will be in his last year of arbitration and Rasmus will be in arbitation (if he’s still with the team and hasn’t sign an extension).  If Holliday is making $18-20MM and you have to sign Albert for $22-25MM, you won’t have much left to field a full team.

Plan B would be Bobby Abreu.  He’ll be cheaper and won’t need a long term commitment.  It’s been reported that Angels players have learned a lot from his this season, so he’d be good to have around with Rasmus, Freese, etc.  He’ll also allow us to have some money to spend on a good #3 starter (since Lohse is more of a #4) and/or a closer.

Mike Metzger, Stan Musial Stance:

Great kickoff question.

To me, you can’t discuss Holliday without discussing Pujols.  The Cardinals are either going to tie up a significant portion of their disposable income in Holliday, or they’re going to do it with Pujols.  It’s not an easy decision.  Both are 29.  Both are marquee players.  Holldiay was worth 5.6 WAR (with Oakland and St Louis) and $25.4M.  Pujols?  8.4 WAR and $38M (all data per Fangraphs)

The Cardinal fanbase has a lot emotionally invested in AP, and they won’t want to see him leave.  The same fanbase wants Holliday to stay because of the prospects (read Brett Wallace) the organization gave up to get him.  So what is Mozeliak to do?

Albert Pujols is one of the best right-handed hitters to ever walk the earth.  Holliday isn’t.  I don’t think the Cardinals should mortgage the future, and let Pujols go to Boston, in order to retain Holliday’s services.  I’m willing to settle for the two draft picks the team will get for losing a Type A free agent.

As for a replacement in LF.  Move Schu back to LF.  Sign Felipe Lopez as a free agent (wOBA .356 last year with AZ and MIL) to play second and hit second.

Now, should Holliday be willing to sign for Troy Glaus money ($12.5M), then I say keep him; but I think his compensation will be closer to the $15-18M range per annum (figure 5 years, $90M), which makes keeping both him and Pujols next to impossible.

Keep Pujols.  Thanks for a great August, Matt.

Nick, Pitchers Hit Eighth:

Matt Holliday’s Baseball Reference page gives a pretty good name for discussion, under the “Similar Batters through” listing.

One that pops up, through Holliday’s current age, is Magglio Ordonez.  Maggs signed a 5 year, $75mm contract with the Detroit Tigers that carried several contingencies based upon the health of his knee, following injury issues as he finished out in Chicago.

Ordonez received a small base salary in the first year of his contract, a slight bump down in the third year (a just in case clause?), but the grand total was an average of $15mm per season.

Figure in the difference in economic states between that contract and now, and the fact that to our knowledge, Holliday has no injury concerns, and it stands to reason that Holliday may be attainable at something like 5 years, $90mm.

Of course, that number doesn’t take into account Scott Boras’ hype nor the clamoring of the rabid Cardinal fan base.  Boras is already marketing Holliday as an equal to Teixeira, which means that any perceived discount that the Cardinals may have expected can be tossed right out the window.

If 5 years, $90mm is the price tag – AND the Cardinals can commit what it takes to extend Pujols – then I say do it.

I’ve been a proponent of sitting Holliday and Pujols down in one room, discussing with them that they have similar goals, putting a number in front of both, and telling them to sort out who gets what.  Obviously, that won’t happen, particularly with Boras involved.  Wouldn’t it be nice though?

Cardinal fans at this point must let go of Brett Wallace and those traded with him for Holliday.  If Matty walks, they get two first round draft picks.  Good enough trade in my book to fly another flag above Busch III.  Keep in mind that Wallace had no position in St Louis and was likely more valuable to an AL team anyway, and who knows where Mortensen will wind up.  Flags fly forever.  Resigning Holliday because of the trade capital invested should not be a consideration when evaluating how high on the dollar scale to go in trying to resign him.

CJ, The Cardinal Virtue:

I feel that the choice isn’t Matt or Albert. I don’t think people realize what they have here:

1. Albert is an investment. He is already a legend. How far that legend goes remains to be seen. Nevertheless, he is a first round hall of famer–no more beating around Busch. He can be one of the rare players to spend his entire career in one place. What is more, he could break some serious records and go down as THE greatest player of all time. But that type of potential has to be cultivated. And it won’t come cheap. However, the reward is soooooo worth any short term price tag. Wake up, people! You do whatever it takes to get the man to stay.

2. Pujols wants a competitive team. Therefore, it is not a question of one or the other. I believe its both or neither. If we don’t first show Albert that the organization is willing to lay out the coin to win then we should fully expect him to walk–no matter how much we offer him. We need to up payroll to pay him a respectable amount and pay for the likes of Holliday.

3. Keeping protection for Albert should be the first priority. Since Pujols’ potential record breaking legacy would mean so much in revenue in the long run, money should be invested now to protect and cultivate that legacy. Holliday could be part of that answer. Is he Scottie Pippin? Maybe. Prolly not, but he could go a long way toward being a part of that answer.

4. It’s not like we have Clemens holding the team hostage here. In fact, we have a nice guy, who signed for way less than was expected last time around. It’s that type of attitude that is begging to sign the likes of Holliday. Look how the Cards did when they had Edmonds and Rolen in full swing right along side Pujols. It wasn’t cheap then either. It’s not like Mac either–where his record breaking season happened amidst what was normally a lack luster team performance.

My answer: Give Pujols what he asks for. Pay Holliday Bay money. The stands are packed like a clown car. Cardinal merchandise flows like wine at a weeding in Cana. There’s a reason Busch III isn’t like Tropicana and people don’t wear the clothes because they like Cornell Haynes’ fashion sense. Pujols and therefore the likes of Holliday can be a continuing reason for such popularity.

We can be cheap now, but we’d pay later.

Daniel Shoptow, C70 at the Bat:

First of all, nobody said there’d be math in this roundtable!

Coming in late to the party, there’s not a lot I can add to the discussion, save the fact that it boils down to where management wants to set the payroll.  If they want to keep it in the $100 million range, then there seems to be absolutely no way to keep Holliday and Pujols.  If they want to get more into the $125 million range, then it’s more feasible.

I’d like to see Holliday stay, but like Nick said, you have to forget about what you’ve already paid for him.  Wallace and company are a sunk cost.  It may make you more involved in the process, but ultimately the signing of Holliday has to stand on its own merits.

If Holliday would come for about $16 million and ownership would bump the payroll ceiling, I think it’s a good deal.  I’m not one that would rant against the picks if he walked, though.

Josh, Pitchers Hit Eighth:

We are definitely starting things out with a bang, and I may surprise some of the UCB faithful with my answer to this question. Given what we have heard from Albert, signing Holliday may be the first step to getting a final long-term deal for the MVP. I say it is time to get creative and show Pujols two things.

1 — The Cardinals are willing to spend the money and that two draft picks are not going to help in the next 2+ seasons.

2 — St. Louis knows that AP comes first.

That is why my offer is one of the escalating variety. It will keep Holliday happy but also shows him that no one comes before El Hombre. Start with something like 11-12 million for the first year of the deal and move it up accordingly over the five remaining seasons. Final total breaks down below and more importantly doesn’t cripple the needs that do remain.

Holliday’s Happiness

2010 — 11.5 million
2011 – 13.5 million
2012 — 15.0 million
2013 — 16.0 million
2014 — 16.0 million
2015 — 18.0 million

Six years, 90 million

Pip, Fungoes:

Before we get into contract numbers, here are a few points that shape our thinking:

1. As Nick from Pitchers (used to) Hit Eighth and others have noted, the loss of Brett Wallace et al is a sunk cost, and whether to sign Holliday must be viewed on its own merits. In reality, though, general managers are a lot like politicians, and they can be emotionally invested in a strategy or chain of decisions, and are suspectible to how they are perceived by the public. John Mozeliak hasn’t given any indication of it, and has generally impressed us as the opposite, a calm, dispassionate decision-maker. He’ll need to avoid the most apt analog, repeating the mistake of his predecessor’s compounding the mistake of trading a top prospect for accomplished vet, then overpaying that vet to stay.

2. The question of whether ownership is committed to winning — a.k.a., the Pujols Contract Extension Demand — has been answered, resoundingly. Most recently, the team mortgaged a good part of its future (not to mention parted with some significant leverage against Pujols in Wallace) to ensure a division championship. More generally, the team wrapped up the decade as the league’s best team. Ownership continues to spend in the top third of baseball on payroll despite being in the bottom third in adjusted market size. Unless Pujols has an unreasonably high burden of “competitive” and therefore isn’t bargaining in good faith, we need to move on from Pujols’s possible rent seeking.

3. As for Plan B, what is the cost of replacing Holliday? That is, what is the club’s outlook for corner outfielders coming up through their system in the next couple of years? Daryl Jones, Allen Craig and Jon Jay are nearing the major-league level. Despite losing the top-line production of Holliday, the team could reap more overall value from one or more of them over a four- to six-year period. And remember: “True shortage of talent almost never occurs at the left end of the defensive spectrum.” Add to the value that the team’s current prospects can provide the value of draft picks that the team would receive from a departing Holliday, and the gap closes further.

4. There’s little to no evidence to believe that Holliday provided any significant level of “protection” for Pujols specifically in 2009. Before Holliday arrived on the scene, Pujols had OBP/SLG/GPA numbers of .450/.711/.380. After? .433/.586/.341. In other words, Pujols’s performance actually went down after the Holliday trade.

5. “Ballplayers, as a group, reach their peak value much earlier and decline much more rapidly than people believe.” True, that’s as a group. But looking at the decline in value in Holliday’s three most-recent seasons, it’s hard to imagine that he’s going to suddenly slow his decline.

So what’s a fair offer? Using the WAR projection spreadsheet from Beyond the Boxscore and the projections at BaseballProjection (which provides neutral park/league stats), along with some of our own extrapolating, we came up with a rough outline of Holliday’s future value. The numbers may be a bit conservative after his above-expectations 2009 campaign, but our assumption that his defense will remain constant probably offsets that:

Rounding up, Holliday is going to be worth about $90 million over six years ($15/year) and about $80 million over five ($16/year). The Cardinals should offer either of those contracts to Holliday and his agent, Scott Boras, with a gentle but firm message: Take it or leave it. They’ve won with Matt Holliday, and they’ve won without him. They can do so again.