Roster Construction and Lineup Changes

by Michael Riehn
Whiteyball Staff

Tuesday I took a look at the Cardinals trade options, and preached patience.  Today I will be looking at our roster and lineup configurations and have an entirely different view.

The Cardinals bats awoke last night for a great victory, but work still needs to be done.  The roster construction and lineup has holes, and I have a few suggestions to change it:

First of all, lets look at our best fielding lineup according to UZR/150 (UZR stands for Ultimate Zone Rating: (The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.  The 150 is averaged out over 150 games):

1B Albert Pujols -3.8 (Pujols is a good fielder and was +8.5 last year)
2B Joe Thurston +30.3
SS Brendan Ryan +42.5
3B Brian Barden +13.5
LF Rick Ankiel +63 (Limited playing time in left, he’s a plus 7.6 overall)
CF Colby Rasmus +38.2
RF Ryan Ludwick -2.6  (Ludwick was a +4.6 last year)

This is a VERY good fielding lineup, and would save the team a ton of runs on defense over our current configuration.  So far this year, our second base, left field and 3rd base defense have been terrible..  That being said, I think all of us are more worried about hitting right now, so let’s look at the best lineup via OPS (On base percentage, plus slugging percentage…

OPS Key:  .750 OPS is average (good for middle infielder and centerfielder, below average for corner outfielder or infielder), .800 is good (and great for middle infielder/ centerfielder), .900 is All-Star, 1.000 is MVP territory)

1B Albert Pujols 1.087
2B Joe Thurston .748
SS Tyler Greene .812
3B Brendan Ryan .779
LF Chris Duncan .743
CF Colby Rasmus .794
RF Rick Ankiel .766

First of all, what would we do without Pujols?  Second, who isn’t excited about Colby Rasmus right now?  He is red hot and has carried this team’s offense of late.

Tyler Greene and Brendan Ryan, have much smaller sample sizes, but they’ve earned a shot at platooning at SS.  We actually have 3 great utility infielders when combined with Thurston (Ryan/Greene could be more), and really don’t have a spot for Khalil Greene when he comes back.  He is the casualty of a roster cut.  One of our biggest weaknesses was our long term situation at short, and you’ve got to like how they are producing.  We will see if their hitting lasts, but their defense is for real.

Nobody else unfortunately is hitting.    You have to expect Ludwick (.739), Duncan, Ankiel and Schumaker (.728) to hit better, but the rest (aside from Colby) have maxed out on what they can do.

This post isn’t about bashing La Russa.  I actually like that he spreads the playing time around and keeps people fresh.  I think that is one of his strengths as manager, as nobody really gets buried on the bench or tired from playing too much.

Saying that, Ludwick is an All-Star and should be starting almost every day.  We should be much more worried about getting him going than Ankiel, and especially Duncan.  Until Duncan finds his power stroke, we can not be carrying his glove in left.  Don’t bury him, but start him 2 days a week, tops and pinch hit him.  He should NOT be starting everyday with his defense (-4.6).

While Rasmus is hot, he should be starting every day.  When he’s not, his defense means he should still start most of the time.

Barden has fielded well at third base, but this lineup needs a jolt that he can’t provide,.  He’s hitting .235/ .290/ .388, and hasn’t hit since April.  He must be sent to the minors to get his swing back.

Joe Mather had a .780 OPS in the majors last year and is starting to hit in the minors after coming back from the surgery on his wrist.  Allen Craig is hitting well in the minors and has experience at 3B.   Let’s see what one of them can do.

The Skip Schumaker experiment should be a more gradual process at second base.  He is currently -26.3 UZR/150 and that is one of the worst in the league.  He’s getting better, but he should not be thrown into the deep end this year.  He’s been surprisingly better than I thought, but there are better ways to construct your lineup.

Recommended starters with Percentage of playing time at each position
C- Yadier Molina 70%/ LaRue 30%
1B- Superman 99.5%
2B- Skip Schumaker 50%/ Joe Thurston 40%/ Brendan Ryan 10%
3B- Joe Mather 60%/ Brendan Ryan 20%/ Joe Thurston 20%
SS- Tyler Greene 60%/ Brendan Ryan 40%
LF- Rick Ankiel 50%/ Chris Duncan 25%/ Skip Schumaker 25%
CF- Colby Rasmus 85%/ Rick Ankiel 15%
RF- Ryan Ludwick 85%/ Rick Ankiel 10%/ Mather 5%

This new lineup will give us plus defenders in left field 75% of the time and second base 50% of the time.  It would give us a better shot at 3rd base, and Ludwick (85%), Rasmus (85%), Schumaker (75%), Ankiel (75%) would still be playing a majority of the time.  You are still mixing and matching, and playing people more when they are hot, less when they are not.  Duncan would still pinch hit almost every game, but have less at bats for Rasmus and Ludwick.  Our best lineup would be this:

Schumaker 2b
Rasmus CF
Pujols 1B
Ludwick RF
Ankiel LF
Mather 3B
Molina C
Pitcher
Greene SS

Instead of pinch hitting a pitcher or middle infielder, we would now have a solid major league bench of Ankiel, Schumaker, LaRue and Brendan Ryan.  You still wouldn’t have a righthander with pop (unless Mather is on the bench), but it would be better than what we have now.

Rotation
Wainwright
Carpenter
Lohse
Pineiro
Wellemeyer

Bullpen
Ryan Franklin
Jason Motte
Chris Perez
Kyle McClellan
Brad Thompson
Trever Miller
Dennys Reyes

*UZR numbers through Tuesday’s game

Filed Under: Baseball • Uncategorized

Tags: Lineup construction • Roster Construction • Tony La Russa