Guess Who?
Hi. My name is Kevin, and I am new here. I have been asked to fill in for a post or two, kind of like a spot start. Think of me as your very own Mitchell Boggs. Hopefully, I’ll be good enough to warrant keeping around for a while. If not, hey, no big deal – I was cheap, wasn’t any worse than Wellemeyer, and look pretty funny with a pink backpack on.
Pardon my freshness.
So, knowing that I am completely unproven, why should you be persuaded by my viewpoints and arguments forthwith? The answer is simple: you shouldn’t. What you should do is read what I have to say, think about the entire scope of my arguments and views, and create your own opinion after objective and critical review. Then bash my idiocy in the comments. This sort of scientific method of criticism I expect from all of you is exactly what I am going to impart on baseball, starting with a sketch of an interesting candidate for LF in 2010.
In a perfect world, Matt Holliday would take a huge discount to patrol the port side of Busch III’s outfield due to his affinity for apple pie and Midwestern niceties. But, much to the chagrin of thousands of Cards fans who rushed to purchase revised Edmonds jerseys, all indications point to Mr. Holliday auctioning his services to the highest bidder. As a follow-up to Clark’s post, MLB trade rumors has the latest, with Agent Smith Boras comparing Holliday to Teixeira. Now, it is unlikely that Holliday will be able to land the 8 year/$180 million contract Teix commanded, but certainly a 5 or 6 year deal worth in excess of $100 million is plausible if not likely. If the Cardinals have intentions of making a serious offer to re-sign Mr. Pujols while simultaneously filling out a passable 25-man roster, I don’t see any way that they can match Holliday’s other suitors.
This brings us to Golden McGood. Now I know what you are thinking; it is true that Golden had a down year in 2008. His slash stats were quite pedestrian by his standards: .257/.378/.397 in a hitter’s park vs. career averages of .277/.371/.450, and his wOBA (weighted on-base average) slipped to .345 after being above .400 for each of the previous two seasons. He will turn 32 in April, and has only once played more than 140 games in a season.
However, despite his relatively lackluster performance in 2009, McGood’s .378 OBP would have qualified second among humans in the Cardinal lineup (first if you discard Holliday from the mix). He demonstrated outstanding plate discipline, swinging at just 19.6% of pitches outside the zone (25.1% is league average) and walking in 14.4% of his plate appearances (vs. 9.1% average).
Plus, Golden fits right in with what the Redbirds need. The Cardinals had just an 80 sOPS+ against LHP last season, meaning they were roughly 20% worse than the average team against lefties. The former all-star is just what the doctor ordered. His .306/.387/.497 career line against southpaws would seriously alleviate that impotence (in addition to making Tony LaRussa weak at the knees with match up versatility).
It gets better. There is reason to believe that McGood was a victim of unfortunate luck at the plate in 2009 as well. His HR to flyball ratio was just 12.2%, well off his rates of 21.2% and 18.3% in 2008 and 2007, respectively. If just a few more of those flyballs find their way into the seats, his power numbers would fall in line with his career norms and his slugging would get a sizeable boost. He should be a legitimate 20 HR candidate going forward.
With all do respect to the late Billy Mays – there’s more! McGood has been an above average defender in the outfield over his career according to FanGraph’s Ultimate Zone Rating (which attempts to objectively rate fielders based on range, arm, and “hands”), adding 2.6 wins over his career via glove and arm alone.
As if the case for McGood could possibly get any better, his team is desperate to get rid of him. He is due $10 million for each of the next two seasons, but his club has made it clear they are done with him and his potential to be a 3-win player by WAR (he was worth 4.5, 2.4, and 2.7 in 2008, 2007, and 2006, respectively). If he could be had for, say, $4 -$5 million per season, there is little to no chance his performance wouldn’t warrant that salary. In fact, if he performs merely at his career average, he would be worth an outstanding $12.6 million (using $4.5 million as the baseline value for one win…learn more about win values here), with significant potential to be worth $15 million or more. That is some serious surplus value (almost as good of a bargain as when I somehow found Knute Rockne – All-American floating in the $4.88 bin at Wal-Mart).
The potential ~$10 million in savings per season in hiring McGood vs. Holliday could be used to bolster an offer to Albert or to fill out the back end of the rotation. His acquisition would provide solid defense and plus offense, while providing flexibility should other opportunities (or heaven forbid, injury problems) arise.
Let’s face it: payroll is not going to be in the position to absorb an incremental $100 million for one contract in the near future. Instead, the Redbirds could get a decent approximation of Holliday’s production for a small fraction of the cost by taking a flyer on McGood.
Golden McGood, the artist formerly known as Milton Bradley, hired me to undertake his marketing campaign since his unfortunate run-ins with the media and Lou Piniella in 2009. Well, not really, but he should pay me for how much I have been singing his praises. He has every reason to quit the crazy and prove that he can be a team player as he has just one shot left at a big free agent contract after his current deal has expired. His numbers are undoubtedly valuable, and St. Louis would provide an ideal environment for renaissance given the outstanding fan base and forgiving media, not to mention a clubhouse Albert and LaRussa rule with iron fists.
Do I really think the Cardinals would sign Milton Bradley? No. Of course not. But I wish they would. He is almost certain to be a steal for whoever picks him up. He is the definition of low-risk, high-reward (ala Smoltz and Lugo) if the Cubs pay a significant portion of his salary.
All statistics taken from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.
About the Author: I am a Cardinal fan with a passion for correctness.
Kevin,
First off, great post and you got past six innings, so we’ll have to find another Cardinal pitching comparison! I had to read your post twice once I saw Milton Bradley was the man you were recommending, but I have to say, it just might work. Milton did really good in Texas, not so much in the high pressure Chitown. Would the STL environment keep him in check? I’m not sure, but his numbers speak for themselves. Not to mention he would be motivated to stick it to the Cubs everytime we played. I’m a little worried about durability, but it is what it is. I don’t think Holliday or Bay are going to be available, so it’s something to think about. Hot stove is going to be fun with you!
Clark
Kevin,
Great first post. I have mixed feelings on Bradley. He WILL be a bargain next year, but will always be a distration in the dugout. He’s a fantastic hitter, but would the Cubs trade him to us? He’s under contract with them unless they drop him, and I think they’d find someone to take him off their hands (San Diego? Oakland?) before they trade them to their arch rival.