We’re Out There… And Loving Every Minute of It!

by Michael Riehn
Whiteyball Staff

Evaluating the Trades So Far
The Cardinals are fun to watch again.

A team that was having trouble scoring runs can now hit and pitch with the best teams in baseball.  The recent moves have really been paying off… so far.  Is the short term gains worth what we’ve given up?

The team has been on a roll and is 11-6 since acquiring Holliday. Lugo has batted 64 times with a .362/ .397/ .603/ 1.000 slash line*, giving us middle infield depth that we were lacking and a reliable bat against left handed pitching.

DeRosa hasn’t been on base a lot, but he’s had big hits and has been slugging the ball with authority: .226/ .291/ .495/.786.   This has been a big improvement over what we were trotting out to play third base before, and has given our lineup some real depth.  Look for the home runs to drop but the on base percentage to go up.

Ted Williams Holliday has been unreal and has batted .470/ .506/ .788/ 1.294 since the trade.  He’s given us better team speed and has played plus defense to go along with his big bat.   He won’t hit like this forever, but he’s one of the top players in the league and he’s been enjoyable to watch.

These players have unquestionably made the Cardinals better in 2009.  Is it worth it?  What if we don’t make the playoffs or sign our pending free agents (no).  What if we win the World Series but still lose our free agents (Yes, Flags fly forever).  What if we don’t make the playoffs but are able to sign Holliday? (Probably)

*Slash Line: (Batting average, on base percentage +.340 is above average, slugging percentage +.450 is good, on base plus slugging: .750 is average, .800 is good, .850 is All-Star, 1.000 is MVP territory)

The Cost of Trades
Brett Wallace will be good.  He will also be a cheap source of run production for 6 years after he makes his major league debut.  That adds a TON of value to a team.  Does everyone remember when Albert was making league minimum and putting up Hall of Fame numbers? Shudder.

The only problem Wallace has had in the minors (aside from below average defense at third) is that his power has been down this year.  He is young, has a lot of time to develop, and still projects as a great player in the majors.  Will he be an All-Star?  He’s got a good shot, but a lot of that depends on if he sticks at 3rd base or ends up at first.

Either way, his ceiling is high and we will miss him.  He’s got a chance to be “Danny Haren” good, but he could also end up the next “Daric Barton” (who?).  Somewhere in between is where he will probably end up and if we don’t make the playoffs or sign Holliday, the Mulder trade will have some serious competition.

Clayton Mortenson, Shane Peterson, Jess Todd and Chris Duncan are not A level prospects, but all have value and could have helped balance the Cardinal’s future budget.  Out of the 4, Todd could be helping the Cardinal bullpen right now.  He projects to be a decent middle reliever.

Chris Perez is the wildcard.  If he becomes a closer (his strikeouts per 9 are outstanding) he will be tough to lose.  Closers are hard to find, expensive and the man possess great stuff.  If he becomes a good middle reliever (his walks per nine innings are a concern) then he will be expendable.  It all depends on if he can develop more control.

Free Agency Isn’t Free
So what’s good about this trade, besides the obvious gain of helping our team make the playoffs this year and giving us a better shot at another ring?  Do these trades possibly make us better into the next decade?

Payroll is fluid with the Cardinals.  It’s not always going to be 100 million dollars, nor should it be.  They don’t like to make bets on players that are overpriced talents (Alfonso Soriano) and are always looking for complete players (defense, running, hitting, good player in the clubhouse).  That’s why you see them pick up the scrap players or reclamation projects that are cheap (Khalil Greene, Todd Wellenmeyer) or the players that fall through the cracks (Kyle Loshe) instead of always going for the best player on the market.

They want to save their “dry powder” for players like Scott Rolen, Larry Walker, Chris Carpenter, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Jim Edmonds, Mark McGwire.  When the Cardinals go “All In”, you can bet that they aren’t doing it with a 7-2 offsuit.  They are making a calculated risk.

That is why it was foolish to look at the Cardinals payroll this year and say that the Cardinals were cheapskates.  Yes the payroll was down, but there wasn’t anything on the market that could have made them appreciably better.  If they would have spent money just to appease the fans, they would have ended up with a lot of dead weight (Edgar Renteria, Milton Bradley, John Smoltz, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny) or overpriced talent (A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixera, C.C. Sabathia).

St. Louis:  THE Holiday Destination
But we are the Cardinals, doesn’t everyone want to sign with us for less than they are worth?  Who wouldn’t want to play for a team with temperate humid climate that is close to an ocean a river with one of the best worst night lives in the major leagues?  We’re the Yankees Cardinals, so we can outbid all of the large mid market teams like the Mets, Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Tigers, White Sox, Reds and Pirates.  Plus we have an Arch!

This is a common misconception that our fans have.  One of the ideas that people don’t seem to realize is that good free agents have their pick of where to go.  It’s not a fantasy league and we aren’t the 1st pick of most players.  We can’t just pick the free agent and he will automatically sign with us.  Brian Fuentes is a great example.  We outbid the Angels for him, but he wanted to play closer to his home town in California.  There is nothing you can do about this, so the fans that complain are off base.

A great fanbase and winning history are nice, but players look for other things.  How much money can I make there, is the city close to my home town, will they win with me there, what kind of endorsements can I make there, would my wife and kids like living there, will my girlfriend, how much money will I make there, what is there to do in the city, do I like playing there, do I have any friends on the team, how much money will I make there?

Resigning Holliday
A trade like Holliday does a few things that help in resigning him.  He builds friendships, the family gets used to the area and he can see how he will fit in with the team.  Instead of having to bid the most amount of money, we have a time period where we aren’t bidding against everyone.  If we are around the amount he thinks he can get, we don’t have to OUTBID for him.  We can sign him BEFORE he reaches free agency and the Yankees and Red Sox come calling.

This is a HUGE reason for trading a player before free agency.  This doesn’t mean that we can pay him a lot less money, but it does mean that we can try to agree on how much he is worth BEFORE other teams start increasing that total. This is important.  The Cardinals chances of signing a difference maker (Holliday) went from 5% to 60% or more.  It’s not a sure thing, but they are playing the percentages (which worked for McGwire, Rolen, Edmonds, etc.).

The Cardinals may have made a good bet, but that doesn’t mean it will work out.  Even if we don’t sign Holliday, it is best to put your “future” blinders on and enjoy the season.  It has been fun to watch so far, and you don’t have many chances as fans to see a team this good.

Filed Under: Baseball • Prospects • Uncategorized