Mayday! Is There a Lifeboat on This Ship?

May 14, 2009 | mriehn | Comments 1

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By Michael Riehn
Whiteyball Staff

Will the Cardinals right the ship?

After a fantastic April, the good ship Cardinal is springing leaks and sinking faster than the Titanic.  Bad pitching, hitting and defense, coupled with injuries, have caused the Cardinals to go into a 4-7 free fall for the month. Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Chicago are now in a virtual tie with the local nine for first place and the Cardinals need to turn it around soon or they will be buried in the standings.  Is this just a minor valley to a long season, or should we be concerned about this team’s long term chances?

M.A.S.H.

The main reason the Cardinals are doing so poorly is due to injuries to their best players.  We are missing All-Stars:  Chris Carpenter, Troy Glaus and Ryan Ludwick, plus slugger Rick Ankiel.  If you are scoring at home, that is 3 middle of the order hitters and our best pitcher.  No team is deep enough to withstand this number of injuries to its best players.

What else has been a problem?

Kids in the Hall
The Cardinals vaunted minor league depth (Top 5-10 minor league system per the top prospect sites) has been severely tested this season, with mixed results.  Colby Rasmus has been good with the glove but needs improvement with the bat. Mitchell Boggs has been a surprisingly decent pitcher with a 3.50 ERA and a 9.5 K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings), but he has only reached the 6th inning one time.

Our rookie platoon at 3B has fallen off of a cliff in May and can’t seem to find their traction.  In April, Brian Barden was honored as the rookie of the month for the National League.  Since this award, he has been “hitting” a paltry .063/.118/.125 (Batting Average, On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage) and his platoon partner, Joe Thurston, has not been far behind him with a .206/ .308/ .382 mark.

Help on the Way?
Shane Robinson hit well at Memphis (.345/.410/.473) and deserved his promotion, but has looked overmatched in his brief stint in the majors.  He may yet prove to be a decent 4th outfielder, but his start hasn’t garnered confidence.  Nick Stavinoha was not hitting at Memphis (.264/.341/.427), and probably didn’t deserve a promotion, but got the call because there is no one else ready.

The Cardinals top minor league prospects in AA are playing well, but need more seasoning.  Daryl Jones (.318/.411/.430 in AA), Brett Wallace (.276/.390/.431) and Stephen Hill (.314/.74/.647) have all had varying success.  Unfortunately our Memphis prospects have played poorly:  Joe Mather (.129/ .194/.200), Jon Jay (.233/.296/.267) ), Brian Anderson (.174/.202/.200.), David Freese (.243/.300/.378).  Aside from David Freese, who is heating up, we don’t have much depth ready to help out.

The Mean Regression to the Mean
There is a reason why Super Joe Thurston is a career minor leaguer and Joel Pineiro has a track record as a journeyman pitcher.  They weren’t going to keep up their outstanding April pace (and haven’t) and should be no more than a backup infielder and 5th/6th starter respectively.  Yadier Molina has fallen back to earth (.235/ .316 /.324 in May) and most of the rest of the team has followed suit.

Skip Schumaker has picked up his pace from a poor slugging April to post solid numbers in May (.316/.333/.526), but he is still playing well below average defensively and could take a few more walks.  Only the consistently great Pujols (.297/ .372/.730 in May) has had a good April and May.

Batting Practice
The pitching staff has been abominable.  With Wainwright and Wellemeyer still struggling, and Kyle Loshe having a terrible May (11.32 ERA), we have zero starters pitching well right now.  While the much maligned bullpen has been holding their own, the Cardinals need Carpenter back now more than ever to provide a beacon in the storm.  That may happen as soon as next week and couldn’t come at a better time.  Sometimes all it takes is one start to get everyone on track and hopefully one of our top of the rotation starters (Wainwright, Loshe, Carpenter) can do that soon.

Catch Me if You Can
The Cardinals have made a LOT of errors this year.  In fact they have made more errors than all but 4 teams.  Contrast this with last year’s team which had the 6th least amount of errors and you will see a major reason for their struggles.  Along with their errors, their range and double plays have been well below average, as they have the 8th worst UZR/150 in baseball (UZR stands for Ultimate Zone Rating: (The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.)  The only attribute the Cardinals have been good at has been the outfield arms.

Gone are Cesar Izturis, Adam Kennedy and Troy Glaus to anchor the infield.  They had phenomenal seasons with the glove last year and could be really used on this team.  The biggest disappointment has been Khalil Greene.  He was not able to build off of his impressive spring with the bat, and he has been worse than Schumaker (-28.9 UZR/150) with the glove (-34.5 UZR/150).  For a player that was characterized as a good fielder, this is not a good sign.

Get back to Where We Once Belonged…
The pitching isn’t as bad as it’s been in May or as good as April.  The hitting is still one of the best in the league when healthy, and will turn it around in a few weeks barring further injury. The pitching and offense will be there.  What we should worry about long term is the defense, especially in the middle infield.

The Cardinals made a conscience effort for a better lineup and sacrificed defense to do it.  Schumaker still has a chance to be a plus player due to his bat and the fact that he is getting better at defense, but Khalil needs to turn it around soon (hitting and defense).  Without defense, the birds will go through more prolonged valleys when they don’t hit, and will struggle.

Filed Under: Baseball

Tags: defense • hitting • May • pitching • Skip Schumaker • slump