Playoff Pitching & Matchups
by Michael Riehn
Whiteyball Staff
Chris Carpenter
With the playoff races winding down, I thought it would be a great time to look at the playoff scenarios and the top pitchers for each team. The only race that is still somewhat close is the Rockies/ Braves for the wildcard. The Rockies have a 2 game lead with 6 to play.
The Cardinals are currently tied with the Phillies for the 2nd best record in the National League. Who will the Cardinals face in the first round?
If the Cardinals have the 2nd seed:
Scenerio 1: If the Rockies get in, the Cards would play the Rockies.
Scenerio 2: If the Braves get, in the Cards would play the Phillies
If the Cardinals have the 3rd seed (and Philadelphia has the 2nd seed)
Scenerio 3: If the Rockies get in, the Cards would play the Dodgers
Scenerio 4: If the Braves get in, the Cards would play the Phillies
What do the Phillies, Dodgers, Braves, Rockies and Cardinals have in common? Great starting pitching. All of these teams have an ERA that is within the top 8 of the major leagues. Even more interesting (to me at least) is to look each team’s top 3 starters. All but the Rockies have a 1-3 that is among the best in the league:
Dodgers
| Age | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | BB | SO | ERA+ | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Wolf* | 32 | 11 | 6 | 3.24 | 32 | 203.0 | 53 | 153 | 129 | 1.094 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 6.8 |
| Chad Billingsley | 24 | 12 | 10 | 4.07 | 31 | 190.1 | 81 | 174 | 102 | 1.324 | 8.1 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 8.2 |
| Clayton Kershaw* | 21 | 8 | 8 | 2.85 | 28 | 161.0 | 87 | 171 | 146 | 1.236 | 6.3 | 0.4 | 4.9 | 9.6 |
Phillies
| Age | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | BB | SO | ERA+ | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Hamels* | 25 | 10 | 9 | 4.11 | 30 | 184.0 | 38 | 161 | 104 | 1.261 | 9.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 7.9 |
| Joe Blanton | 28 | 11 | 7 | 3.82 | 29 | 183.2 | 53 | 156 | 112 | 1.279 | 8.9 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 7.6 |
| J.A. Happ* | 26 | 11 | 4 | 2.79 | 21 | 158.1 | 54 | 112 | 154 | 1.200 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 6.4 |
Braves:
| Age | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | BB | SO | ERA+ | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Vazquez | 32 | 15 | 9 | 2.83 | 31 | 213.1 | 44 | 229 | 147 | 1.017 | 7.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 9.7 |
| Jair Jurrjens | 23 | 14 | 10 | 2.61 | 33 | 207.0 | 72 | 143 | 160 | 1.222 | 7.9 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 6.2 |
| Derek Lowe | 36 | 15 | 9 | 4.55 | 33 | 190.0 | 58 | 107 | 92 | 1.484 | 10.6 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 5.1 |
Late edit: Per a comment below, I’m adding the Braves other two starting pitching. While I still believe the Braves will start Lowe in game 3, the commenter had a good point that he should probably not be in the Braves starting rotation for the playoffs. Long story short, the Braves have scary good pitching
| Age | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | BB | SO | ERA+ | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenshin Kawakami | 34 | 7 | 12 | 3.93 | 25 | 153.1 | 57 | 103 | 106 | 1.350 | 8.8 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 6.0 |
| Tommy Hanson | 22 | 11 | 4 | 2.98 | 20 | 120.2 | 44 | 107 | 140 | 1.193 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 8.0 |
Cardinals:
| Age | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | BB | SO | ERA+ | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | 27 | 19 | 8 | 2.58 | 33 | 227.0 | 64 | 204 | 162 | 1.211 | 8.4 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 8.1 |
| Joel Pineiro | 30 | 15 | 11 | 3.24 | 30 | 203.0 | 25 | 100 | 129 | 1.128 | 9.0 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 4.4 |
| Chris Carpenter | 34 | 16 | 4 | 2.30 | 27 | 187.2 | 37 | 138 | 181 | 1.012 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 6.6 |
As you can see all four teams are built on top of the rotation starting pitching and the Cardinals compare well to each team. Even the players that have pitched poorly have good peripheral numbers and have a chance to be dominant at any given time.
The Rockies are the anomaly in this scenario.
| Age | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | BB | SO | ERA+ | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 25 | 14 | 12 | 3.52 | 32 | 212.0 | 81 | 188 | 128 | 1.236 | 7.7 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 8.0 |
| Jason Marquis | 30 | 15 | 12 | 3.98 | 31 | 206.0 | 74 | 111 | 113 | 1.350 | 8.9 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 4.8 |
| Jorge de la Rosa* | 28 | 16 | 9 | 4.45 | 31 | 182.0 | 83 | 189 | 101 | 1.401 | 8.5 | 1.0 | 4.1 | 9.3 |
They are similar in the fact that they are built on good starting pitching, but they don’t have quite the same 1-3. Jimenez and de la Rosa look like future star pitchers (and Jimenez is probably already there), but they are not on quite the same level as the other 3 teams.
Even their ace, Jiminez, wouldn’t be the top starter on any of the other teams (and actually has an ERA+ that is less than the Cardinals 3rd starter. Marquis has had a good season, but has fallen off in the second half and is nobody’s idea of dominant. What the Rockies have are 5 starters who are all above average.
| Rk | Age | W | L | ERA | GS | IP | BB | SO | ERA+ | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jason Hammel | 26 | 9 | 8 | 4.30 | 29 | 169.2 | 41 | 123 | 105 | 1.385 | 10.3 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 6.5 |
| 5 | Aaron Cook | 30 | 10 | 6 | 4.32 | 26 | 150.0 | 46 | 76 | 104 | 1.447 | 10.3 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 4.6 |
Cook was an all-star last year and Hammel is a good young starter. This works well for the regular season, but not quite as well for the playoffs. Saying this, they are the team that seems to have the Cardinals number this year as the Cardinals are 1-5 against them.
We are going to see a lot of great pitching matchups in this year’s playoffs and I’m looking forward to seeing what the Cardinals can do.
Filed Under: Baseball
About the Author: I am a Cardinal fan, from a small town in Missouri and grew up listening to the Whiteyball teams of the 1980s (but still love the Tony LaRussa version). Currently living outside of St. Louis, I am a partial season ticket holder with a great group of friends.
I hold the position of Director of Sales and Marketing for a hydraulic press manufacturer and serve on a local youth baseball board of directors. Follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/mriehn
Interesting you would use Derek Lowe when he’s the worst of Atlanta’s 6 starting pitchers. Tommy Hanson may be a rookie, but he’s been on part (sub 3.00era) with Vazquez and Jurgens. Tim Hudson at full health is one of baseball’s premier pitchers. Even Kamakawi has been better than Lowe. The bottom line is that the Braves pitching staff scares the crap out of me because they can, and have, shut down our limited offense. The Braves are smoking hot right now because of their pitching. This is the only team I don’t think we can beat. Go Rockies!!
eccard,
That’s a good point about Lowe, but I was showing who I thought the Braves would have as their game 3 starter, not who was the best. I agree that Lowe has had a terrible year and I would definitely use Hanson (esp.) or Kawakami over him. I’ve added their stats to the article per your request.