When You Reach the Top, Keep Climbing

September 03, 2009 | mriehn | Comments 1

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“It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable”.
-Joe Garagiola

The Cardinals have the best record in the National League.  Let that sink in for a moment. Since August 1st, our local nine has accumulated a 22-6 record.   That’s SIXTEEN games over .500.  They are now 27-9 since they acquired Matt Holiday for a .750 winning percentage.

Forget the annihilation of the Cubs and the rest of the division for a moment.  The Cardinals have gained EIGHT and a half games on the Dodgers for the best record in the National League (since August 1st) and are now tied for the second best record in baseball.  Only the Yankees have more wins (85), and they have a 200 million dollar payroll.

Autograph Night at the Ballpark

Mitchell Boggs signing an autograph for my son

I was fortunate to be at the game last night to watch the Cardinals methodically win another game.  After a slow start, I’ve seen them win 9 games this year (versus 5 losses).  It was great to see the continual revival of the offense, and I had a great time hanging out with my son and father in law.

It was autograph night at the ballpark and my son was able to meet and get his hat signed by Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs.  He is 5 years old and had a great time talking to the players.  His excitement continued during the game, as he witnessed the Cardinal fun 6 run inning.   Games like this are what turns a young kid into a fan.

The offense is finally catching up to the hype and the defense and pitching were good enough for another W.  The current lineup makes you forget how bad it was before the trades.  There are no easy outs

The hitting is hard to define due to the relatively small sample size since the trades, but what about the pitching and defense?

The Art of Pitching

The pitching has been phenomenal this year.  The Cardinals are 3rd in ERA (4th in fielding independant ERA), 1st in BB/9 (walks per nine innings), 1st in GB% (ground ball percentage), 3rd in HR/9 (home runs allowed per nine innings)  and sixth in K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings).

This means that when they aren’t striking hitters out, they are keeping the ball on the ground and not allowing a lot of extra baserunners.  When they do allow baserunners, they are hitting a lot of singles, meaning it is tough to drive in runs.   The walks and ground balls aren’t a surprise, but when was the last time the Cardinals had a pitching staff with so many strikeouts?  This isn’t luck, the pitching staff has quantifiable evidence that it IS this good.

(AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Catch Me if You Can

So what about the defense?  Let’s look at UZR/150 to find out.  (UZR stands for Ultimate Zone Rating: (The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.  The 150 is averaged out over 150 games)

The Cardinals started out the year as one of the worst defensive teams in the league.  They have improved dramatically… to where the defensive metrics say they are average for the year. This means there has been vast improvement.

Let’s look at the defense by position:

P The pitchers are 2nd in the league in UZR/150.  For all of their accolades, this is another attribute they do extremely well, and it goes largely unnoticed.

1b Albert Pujols is having a down year defensively.  He’s usually one of the top 1st basemen according to UZR, but has been an average player this year.  He has had the most range, double plays, assists and putouts in the league, but a lot of this is due to our ground ball pitching staff.  He’s had a lot of work, so his sample size is much bigger.

2B Skip Schumaker is 4th to last in UZR/150 for qualifying second basemen this year.  What this doesn’t take into account is how dramatically he has improved.  He started out -30 runs below average after the first 2 months, and is currently at -7.4. His range to his right has been great, but he’s still having issues to his left.  He has shown that he is a quick learner that works through every weakness.  Beyond any conventional wisdom, he may actually prove to be an average second baseman as early as next year.

SS Brendan Ryan is good.  He doesn’t quite have enough innings to qualify, but if he did, he would be 3rd in the majors for UZR/150 at the shortstop position (Right behind our old friend Cesar Izturis).

3b This is our weak spot on the field.  Mark DeRosa has been a below average third baseman this year and we don’t have a good fielding backup on the roster.  DeRosa has a -6.9  UZR/150 would put him at 7th worst in the Majors if he qualified.  I think the injury has something to do with this, because he was pretty good the last 2 years with the Cubs (in limited playing time), but he will probably be a below average fielder the rest of the year.  If only Scott Rolen were here (and had Mark DeRosa’s power and personality).

LF:  Matt Holliday does well on the UZR/150 scale.  His 4.5 UZR/150 is 4th and a huge upgrade over what we previously had in left field.

CF:  Colby Rasmus has scored the second highest UZR/150 in baseball this year for centerfielders.  His 15.9 UZR/150 is behind only the gifted Franklin Guetierrez from Seattle.  Again, this means he’s saved almost 16 runs over 150 games in center field.  That is a great weapon to have in one of the most demanding fielding positions.

RF: Ryan Ludwick has been a slightly above average fielding right fielder this year (0.3 UZR/150, 8th in the majors among those who qualify).

While we have accumulated an average fielding rating for the year, I think you can see how the Cardinals current starters have the upside to have a great defense.  The Cardinals have accumulated a well rounded group of starting players.  Their potential for pitching, defense and hitting gives this team a real shot to contend for the title.

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