UCB Blog

by Michael Riehn
Whiteyball Staff

The United Cardinal Bloggers are having our annual roundtable discussion with questions and debate from several of our authors over the next 10 days. The blogger of the day proposes a question on e-mail, everyone takes a day to respond to it and offer responses to the question.  The first question was from yours truly regarding the value of Matt Holliday.  Question and Answers from the group are below.

Whiteyball Question:

How much should the Cardinals spend to sign Matt Holliday?  (Please give your answer in total value and average annual value.)  What is your Plan B if they don’t resign him?

Does the fact that we gave up Brett Wallace+ to add Holliday, or that he qualifies as a type A free agent (First round draft pick plus supplemental pick between first and second round), factor into your decision?

Remember, that Holliday IS one of the top players in the league and will be paid as such.  He’ll be 30 years old in 2010 and is in the prime of his career.  He had the 16th highest OPS+ last year, the 13th best in 2008 and the 12th best in 2007.  The fielding metrics have him above average.  You can’t say that he is only worth 12 million dollars per year (in value or to the Cardinal team).

His WAR (wins above replacement) value was 5.6 in 2009 per Fangraphs.  Fangraphs estimated (in 2008) that each WAR point is worth 4.5 million dollars (4.5 x 5.6= $25.2 million).  In 2008:  6.2 WAR (28 million), 2007:  7.9 WAR (32.2 million).  This gives you a frame of reference for what the advanced statistics say he is worth (and you know Scott Boras knows the advanced statistics).  The highest money an outfielder has made (per season) is Manny Ramirez (at 22.5 million).

Resources (Cot’s Baseball Contracts)
Highest Paid Players of all time

Total Contract Value:
1. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)
3. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10)
4. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)
5. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15)
6. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08)
7. Miguel Cabrera, $152,300,000 (2008-15)
8. Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11)
9. Johan Santana, $137,500,000 (2008-13)
10. Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14)
11. Vernon Wells, $126,000,000 (2008-14)
12. Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13)
13. Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08)
14. Jason Giambi, $120,000,000 (2002-08)
15. Carlos Beltran, $119,000,000 (2005-11)
16. Ken Griffey Jr., $116,500,000 (2000-08)
17. Kevin Brown, $105,000,000 (1999-2005)
18. Carlos Lee, $100,000,000 (2007-12)
19. Albert Pujols, $100,000,000 (2004-10)
20. Carlos Zambrano, $91,500,000 (2008-12)
21. Mike Piazza, $91,000,000 (1999-2005)
22. Barry Bonds, $90,000,000 (2002-06)
23. Torii Hunter, $90,000,000 (2008-12)
24. Chipper Jones, $90,000,000 (2001-06)
25. Scott Rolen, $90,000,000 (2003-10)

Average Annual Value (all time):
1. Roger Clemens, $28,000,022 (2007)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $27,500,000 (2008-17)
3. Alex Rodriguez, $25,200,000 (2001-10)
4. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)
5. Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)
6. Manny Ramirez, $22,500,000 (2009-10)
7. Mark Teixeira, $22,500,000 (2009-16)
8. Roger Clemens, $22,000,022 (2006)
9. Manny Ramirez, $20,000,000 (2001-08)
10. Miguel Cabrera, $19,037,500 (2008-15)
11. Derek Jeter, $18,900,000 (2001-10)
12. Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12)
13. Andruw Jones, $18,100,000 (2008-09)
14. Barry Bonds, $18,000,000 (2002-06)
Roger Clemens, $18,000,000 (2005)
Ryan Howard, $18,000,000 (2009-11)
Torii Hunter, $18,000,000 (2008-12)
Sammy Sosa, $18,000,000 (2002-05)
Ichiro Suzuki, $18,000,000 (2008-12)
Vernon Wells, $18,000,000 (2008-14)
Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13)
15. Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12)
16. Jason Giambi, $17,142,857 (2002-08)
17. Jeff Bagwell, $17,000,000 (2002-06)
Carlos Beltran, $17,000,000 (2005-11)
Carlos Delgado, $17,000,000 (2001-04)
Alfonso Soriano, $17,000,000 (2007-14)

Outfielders
The highest-paid active outfielders, by average annual value:
Manny Ramirez, $22,500,000 (2009-10)
Manny Ramirez, $20,000,000 (2001-08)
Andruw Jones, $18,100,000 (2008-09)
Torii Hunter, $18,000,000 (2008-12)
Ichiro Suzuki, $18,000,000 (2008-12)
Vernon Wells, $18,00,000 (2008-13)
Carlos Beltran, $17,000,000 (2005-11)
Alfonso Soriano, $17,000,000 (2007-14)
Carlos Lee, $16,666,667 (2007-12)
Magglio Ordonez, $15,000,000 (2005-09)
J.D. Drew, $14,000,000 (2007-11)
Vladimir Guerrero, $14,000,000 (2004-08)
Johnny Damon, $13,000,000 (2006-09)
Hideki Matsui, $13,000,000 (2006-09)
Bobby Abreu, $12,800,000 (2003-07)
Kosuke Fukudome, $12,000,000 (2008-11)
Jose Guillen, $12,000,000 (2008-10)
Aaron Rowand, $12,000,000 (2008-12)
Matt Holliday, $11,500,000 (2008-09)
Nick Markakis, $11,016,667 (2009-14)
Jermaine Dye, $11,000,000 (2008-09

ANSWERS

Kevin Tooke,  Whiteyball: I think Holliday is going to command something (in the range of) 5/95 or 6/108, and not with the Redbirds.

Trey, The Cardinal Virtue:

I think if you look at the top paid outfielders, you’d have to say Holliday isn’t quite the hitter that Manny is (or at least was) and also takes a knock for not being a centerfielder like most of the other top guys.

The most comparable guys on that list to me are Carlos Lee and Soriano and I’d rather have Holliday than either of them.  They were both younger than Holliday when they hit free agency I believe, but I’d say Holliday rates a 5-6 year deal at 17-18 million per year comparing him to other top outfielders.

Taking top figure in both areas, that means six years at 108 million total.  That seems like a huge investment, and I’d be hard-pressed to say its worth it.  Look at some of the deals on that list like Soriano’s and Vernon Wells for instance and the way they’ve regressed since signing those deals.

Unfortunately, the only other comparable bat on the market this year is Jason Bay, and you have to think the Red Sox will pay around that amount to keep him, so I’m not sure we have much choice.  We need to show Albert we are willing to pay to keep a winning team.

Plan B I think would to be to move Shu back to left field and sign a good 2B like Orlando Hudson plus re-sign DeRosa at third and take the draft picks Holliday would give us.  That would be cheaper, and would give us better team defense and team speed, but not too much in the power department.

A tough quandry.  I would go with Holliday, but it’s not my money of course.

Eugene Tierney, Inside Pulse:

This is a problem for the Cardinals.  They’ll have quite a bit of money coming off the payroll (my figure is about $42MM or so), but are looking at a lot of raises (Wainwright, Schumaker, Molina, Ludwick to name a few, I’m figuring $12MM or so).

They also need at least 1 starter, 3B (depending on DeRosa), LF (if Holliday isn’t retained), 4th OF, back up C, and a bullpen arm or 2 (one possibly a closer).  I’m guessing Jaime Garcia and Mitch Boggs will be in contention for one of the roster spot, Matt Pagnozzi and Bryan Anderson for back up catcher, and Joe Mather, Jon Jay, Allen Craig and Shane Robinson for 4th outfielder.  David Freese will be at 3B if DeRosa isn’t back.

They will have the resources to re-sign Holliday, but will it limit what else they will do?  I’m thinking it’ll take $20MM per for 6 years to keep him around; the highest the Cardinals should go should be 5 years, $15MM per.  I want something to show for giving up Wallace and Mortensen; we’ll at least get 2 picks.

The other side of the coin is Albert.  Signing Holliday will show the team is committed to winning, but will it limit what they can offer him?

Some numbers to think about…

Carpenter $15MM option
Lohse $11.875MM
Molina $7MM option
Wainwright $9MM option

These are the 2012 salary commitments.  I’d figure Carp will get the $1MM buyout at that point, but we’ll pick up Molina’s and Wainwrights.  That’s roughly $30MM committed.  Schumaker will be in his last year of arbitration and Rasmus will be in arbitation (if he’s still with the team and hasn’t sign an extension).  If Holliday is making $18-20MM and you have to sign Albert for $22-25MM, you won’t have much left to field a full team.

Plan B would be Bobby Abreu.  He’ll be cheaper and won’t need a long term commitment.  It’s been reported that Angels players have learned a lot from his this season, so he’d be good to have around with Rasmus, Freese, etc.  He’ll also allow us to have some money to spend on a good #3 starter (since Lohse is more of a #4) and/or a closer.

Mike Metzger, Stan Musial Stance:

Great kickoff question.

To me, you can’t discuss Holliday without discussing Pujols.  The Cardinals are either going to tie up a significant portion of their disposable income in Holliday, or they’re going to do it with Pujols.  It’s not an easy decision.  Both are 29.  Both are marquee players.  Holldiay was worth 5.6 WAR (with Oakland and St Louis) and $25.4M.  Pujols?  8.4 WAR and $38M (all data per Fangraphs)

The Cardinal fanbase has a lot emotionally invested in AP, and they won’t want to see him leave.  The same fanbase wants Holliday to stay because of the prospects (read Brett Wallace) the organization gave up to get him.  So what is Mozeliak to do?

Albert Pujols is one of the best right-handed hitters to ever walk the earth.  Holliday isn’t.  I don’t think the Cardinals should mortgage the future, and let Pujols go to Boston, in order to retain Holliday’s services.  I’m willing to settle for the two draft picks the team will get for losing a Type A free agent.

As for a replacement in LF.  Move Schu back to LF.  Sign Felipe Lopez as a free agent (wOBA .356 last year with AZ and MIL) to play second and hit second.

Now, should Holliday be willing to sign for Troy Glaus money ($12.5M), then I say keep him; but I think his compensation will be closer to the $15-18M range per annum (figure 5 years, $90M), which makes keeping both him and Pujols next to impossible.

Keep Pujols.  Thanks for a great August, Matt.

Nick, Pitchers Hit Eighth:

Matt Holliday’s Baseball Reference page gives a pretty good name for discussion, under the “Similar Batters through” listing.

One that pops up, through Holliday’s current age, is Magglio Ordonez.  Maggs signed a 5 year, $75mm contract with the Detroit Tigers that carried several contingencies based upon the health of his knee, following injury issues as he finished out in Chicago.

Ordonez received a small base salary in the first year of his contract, a slight bump down in the third year (a just in case clause?), but the grand total was an average of $15mm per season.

Figure in the difference in economic states between that contract and now, and the fact that to our knowledge, Holliday has no injury concerns, and it stands to reason that Holliday may be attainable at something like 5 years, $90mm.

Of course, that number doesn’t take into account Scott Boras’ hype nor the clamoring of the rabid Cardinal fan base.  Boras is already marketing Holliday as an equal to Teixeira, which means that any perceived discount that the Cardinals may have expected can be tossed right out the window.

If 5 years, $90mm is the price tag – AND the Cardinals can commit what it takes to extend Pujols – then I say do it.

I’ve been a proponent of sitting Holliday and Pujols down in one room, discussing with them that they have similar goals, putting a number in front of both, and telling them to sort out who gets what.  Obviously, that won’t happen, particularly with Boras involved.  Wouldn’t it be nice though?

Cardinal fans at this point must let go of Brett Wallace and those traded with him for Holliday.  If Matty walks, they get two first round draft picks.  Good enough trade in my book to fly another flag above Busch III.  Keep in mind that Wallace had no position in St Louis and was likely more valuable to an AL team anyway, and who knows where Mortensen will wind up.  Flags fly forever.  Resigning Holliday because of the trade capital invested should not be a consideration when evaluating how high on the dollar scale to go in trying to resign him.

CJ, The Cardinal Virtue:

I feel that the choice isn’t Matt or Albert. I don’t think people realize what they have here:

1. Albert is an investment. He is already a legend. How far that legend goes remains to be seen. Nevertheless, he is a first round hall of famer–no more beating around Busch. He can be one of the rare players to spend his entire career in one place. What is more, he could break some serious records and go down as THE greatest player of all time. But that type of potential has to be cultivated. And it won’t come cheap. However, the reward is soooooo worth any short term price tag. Wake up, people! You do whatever it takes to get the man to stay.

2. Pujols wants a competitive team. Therefore, it is not a question of one or the other. I believe its both or neither. If we don’t first show Albert that the organization is willing to lay out the coin to win then we should fully expect him to walk–no matter how much we offer him. We need to up payroll to pay him a respectable amount and pay for the likes of Holliday.

3. Keeping protection for Albert should be the first priority. Since Pujols’ potential record breaking legacy would mean so much in revenue in the long run, money should be invested now to protect and cultivate that legacy. Holliday could be part of that answer. Is he Scottie Pippin? Maybe. Prolly not, but he could go a long way toward being a part of that answer.

4. It’s not like we have Clemens holding the team hostage here. In fact, we have a nice guy, who signed for way less than was expected last time around. It’s that type of attitude that is begging to sign the likes of Holliday. Look how the Cards did when they had Edmonds and Rolen in full swing right along side Pujols. It wasn’t cheap then either. It’s not like Mac either–where his record breaking season happened amidst what was normally a lack luster team performance.

My answer: Give Pujols what he asks for. Pay Holliday Bay money. The stands are packed like a clown car. Cardinal merchandise flows like wine at a weeding in Cana. There’s a reason Busch III isn’t like Tropicana and people don’t wear the clothes because they like Cornell Haynes’ fashion sense. Pujols and therefore the likes of Holliday can be a continuing reason for such popularity.

We can be cheap now, but we’d pay later.

Daniel Shoptow, C70 at the Bat:

First of all, nobody said there’d be math in this roundtable!

Coming in late to the party, there’s not a lot I can add to the discussion, save the fact that it boils down to where management wants to set the payroll.  If they want to keep it in the $100 million range, then there seems to be absolutely no way to keep Holliday and Pujols.  If they want to get more into the $125 million range, then it’s more feasible.

I’d like to see Holliday stay, but like Nick said, you have to forget about what you’ve already paid for him.  Wallace and company are a sunk cost.  It may make you more involved in the process, but ultimately the signing of Holliday has to stand on its own merits.

If Holliday would come for about $16 million and ownership would bump the payroll ceiling, I think it’s a good deal.  I’m not one that would rant against the picks if he walked, though.

Josh, Pitchers Hit Eighth:

We are definitely starting things out with a bang, and I may surprise some of the UCB faithful with my answer to this question. Given what we have heard from Albert, signing Holliday may be the first step to getting a final long-term deal for the MVP. I say it is time to get creative and show Pujols two things.

1 — The Cardinals are willing to spend the money and that two draft picks are not going to help in the next 2+ seasons.

2 — St. Louis knows that AP comes first.

That is why my offer is one of the escalating variety. It will keep Holliday happy but also shows him that no one comes before El Hombre. Start with something like 11-12 million for the first year of the deal and move it up accordingly over the five remaining seasons. Final total breaks down below and more importantly doesn’t cripple the needs that do remain.

Holliday’s Happiness

2010 — 11.5 million
2011 – 13.5 million
2012 — 15.0 million
2013 — 16.0 million
2014 — 16.0 million
2015 — 18.0 million

Six years, 90 million

Pip, Fungoes:

Before we get into contract numbers, here are a few points that shape our thinking:

1. As Nick from Pitchers (used to) Hit Eighth and others have noted, the loss of Brett Wallace et al is a sunk cost, and whether to sign Holliday must be viewed on its own merits. In reality, though, general managers are a lot like politicians, and they can be emotionally invested in a strategy or chain of decisions, and are suspectible to how they are perceived by the public. John Mozeliak hasn’t given any indication of it, and has generally impressed us as the opposite, a calm, dispassionate decision-maker. He’ll need to avoid the most apt analog, repeating the mistake of his predecessor’s compounding the mistake of trading a top prospect for accomplished vet, then overpaying that vet to stay.

2. The question of whether ownership is committed to winning — a.k.a., the Pujols Contract Extension Demand — has been answered, resoundingly. Most recently, the team mortgaged a good part of its future (not to mention parted with some significant leverage against Pujols in Wallace) to ensure a division championship. More generally, the team wrapped up the decade as the league’s best team. Ownership continues to spend in the top third of baseball on payroll despite being in the bottom third in adjusted market size. Unless Pujols has an unreasonably high burden of “competitive” and therefore isn’t bargaining in good faith, we need to move on from Pujols’s possible rent seeking.

3. As for Plan B, what is the cost of replacing Holliday? That is, what is the club’s outlook for corner outfielders coming up through their system in the next couple of years? Daryl Jones, Allen Craig and Jon Jay are nearing the major-league level. Despite losing the top-line production of Holliday, the team could reap more overall value from one or more of them over a four- to six-year period. And remember: “True shortage of talent almost never occurs at the left end of the defensive spectrum.” Add to the value that the team’s current prospects can provide the value of draft picks that the team would receive from a departing Holliday, and the gap closes further.

4. There’s little to no evidence to believe that Holliday provided any significant level of “protection” for Pujols specifically in 2009. Before Holliday arrived on the scene, Pujols had OBP/SLG/GPA numbers of .450/.711/.380. After? .433/.586/.341. In other words, Pujols’s performance actually went down after the Holliday trade.

5. “Ballplayers, as a group, reach their peak value much earlier and decline much more rapidly than people believe.” True, that’s as a group. But looking at the decline in value in Holliday’s three most-recent seasons, it’s hard to imagine that he’s going to suddenly slow his decline.

So what’s a fair offer? Using the WAR projection spreadsheet from Beyond the Boxscore and the projections at BaseballProjection (which provides neutral park/league stats), along with some of our own extrapolating, we came up with a rough outline of Holliday’s future value. The numbers may be a bit conservative after his above-expectations 2009 campaign, but our assumption that his defense will remain constant probably offsets that:

Age	Year	PA	OBP	SLG	WAR	FA $
30	2010	602	.371	.502	4.1	$18.7
31	2011	571	.371	.502	3.8	$17.7
32	2012	542	.367	.488	3.3	$15.3
33	2013	515	.363	.483	3.0	$13.8
34	2014	488	.358	.465	2.4	$11.4
35	2015	462	.353	.448	2.0	$9.2
6-year total					18.6	$86.1
6-year average					3.1	$14.4
5-year total					16.6	$76.9
5-year average					3.3	$15.4

Rounding up, Holliday is going to be worth about $90 million over six years ($15/year) and about $80 million over five ($16/year). The Cardinals should offer either of those contracts to Holliday and his agent, Scott Boras, with a gentle but firm message: Take it or leave it. They’ve won with Matt Holliday, and they’ve won without him. They can do so again.

Filed Under: Baseball • United Cardinal Bloggers (UCB)