Are the Minor League Cupboards Bare?

by Michael Riehn
Whiteyball Blog

The United Cardinal Bloggers are kicking off their annual Top 7 Cardinal prospect list for 2010.  I’ve decided that 7 isn’t enough to show the breadth of the system, so I’m making a top 10 list with “honorable mentions” of those who were considered.  Plus, this site is about baseball, prospects and a little more.  I rarely write about prospects due to Dustin Mattison’s expertise as a certified scout.  It’s about time I contribute my (relatively amateur) opinion to the discussion.

With the absence of many of last year’s banner crop of Colby Rasmus, Brett Wallace, Chris Perez, Jess Todd and Jason Motte, this list “ain’t what she used to be”.  That doesn’t mean that there aren’t intriguing players in the system. The Cardinals still have quality organizational depth, even if the upper crust is not near the 2009 quality. We are still far removed from the dark ages of the system’s early 2000’s.  Saying that, Wallace and Todd would have made this system elite.

1.  Jamie Garcia, AAA, SP: Many bloggers will have a certain number 1 draft pick from the 2009 draft ahead of the man named ‘Heime’, but I believe his minor league body of work and domination after injury should make him the top prospect on any Cardinal list. 

He, along with Shelby Miller, are the only two Cardinal pitchers with the chance of being a top of the rotation starter.  Garcia is comparitively further along with a little less upside but he get’s bonus points for pitching from the sinister side. 

Coming off of Tommy John surgery, he has been lights out in his comeback late this year, and even better in the AAA playoffs.  He should at least achieve mid-rotation status, and is the best candidate to be the Cardinals number 5 starter in 2010.

3.  Darryl Jones, AA, OF: The ‘tool shed’ has taken a step back after a monster campaign as a 21 year old in A and AA ball.  He’s shown speed, plate discipline, defense, a good arm and a modicum of power, as he has surged through the minors at a young age. 

Along with Brett Wallace, he represented the team well in the future games, but was set back after the All-Star break with an injury.  He’s still young enough to develop into more than a fourth outfielder in the major leagues, but you’d like to see the 2008 power return in AAA next year.  If all goes right, he could be a future leadoff hitter for the Cardinals with good defense.

Is he the player from 2008 that scouts and stat heads love, or the proverbial 5 tool scout player that never lives up to his potential?

4.  Lance Lynn, AA, SP: The 2nd round draft choice from 2009 has played well in the minors at an appropriate age at each level.  Does he have top of the rotation potential?  Probably not. 

His ceiling isn’t great, but neither is his floor.  He has a low nineties fastball with good sink and a solid slider.  He’s still working on his third pitch (curve or changeup), but should become a decent 3-4 starting rotation guy or dominant middle reliever. 

Lynn has pitched well everywhere he has played and has yet to struggle, so he could surprise.

5. Wagner Mateo, International Signing, 3B/OF, 16: Picked by many scouting services as one of the top 3 international prospects in 2009, the Cardinals shelled out over 3.1 million dollars to sign the 16 year old Dominican prospect.  He will have time and room to grow in the Cardinals system, but it will be a while before we see him in Cardinal red (or AA ball for that matter).

The ceiling for Mateo may be the highest in the organization, so many prospect gurus will have him rated higher, but he was born in 1993 so I believe you must temper your expectations.  (See Shelby Miller and subtract 2 more years as to why this can be bad.) 

Projections get more sketchy the farther out you go, but he has shown a nice ability to hit, with a compact left handed swing and is a scout’s 5 tool dream.

6.  Eduardo Sanchez, AA, RP:  He has electric stuff with a mid nineties fastball and a good breaking ball.  He dominated AA at a young age and shows the competitive fire of a possible closer.  

Even with the trading of our top right handed relief, the Cardinals have shown the ability to find and develop this type of player.  While nobody in the system has the upside of Chris Perez.  Sanchez and a few others have a chance to be very good. 

Sanchez could help the Cardinals as early as next year.

7.  Casey Mulligan AA, RP:  Mulligan is another player that the Cardinals have turned from catcher to pitcher, but he has done so at an earlier age.  He has not disappointed with the conversion. 

Mulligan is armed with a low to mid nineties fastball, solid changeup and curveball (some scouts have referred to his third pitch as a forkball).  He also features two arm angles, over the top and side arm.  What gets everyone excited is that his strikeouts per nine innings are off the charts at age 21. 

He’s a young middle reliever with upside, and one to watch.

8.  Robert Stock Rook-A, C:  The Cardinals second round pick out of USC acquitted himself well to the low levels of the minor leagues.  He’s got a great pedigree as the 2005 Baseball America Youth Player of the Year, but he struggled in his last season in college (Thus, the reason why he fell to the second round). 

Stock has an intriguing fallback option in his path to the majors, as he was additionally a top college pitching prospect with a lively arm.  The Cardinals have a lot of experience in this conversion and he was drafted by the right team to take full advantage of whatever potential he holds.

So far, that doesn’t need to be explored, as great hitting catchers are very valuable.  He has hit well as a 19 year old in rookie ball and has time to develop into a top prospect.

9.  David Freese, AAA, 3B:  He has hit at every level in the minor leagues and plays a very good third base.  Starting the season on the Cardinal roster, he lost almost the entire season to a myriad of injuries, but has come back strong. 

So why isn’t he higher on this list?  He’s old for a prospect and doesn’t have a high ceiling.  He could be an average major league third baseman, with good defense and a little pop, but he’s probably not going to be more than that.  If he reaches his potential, a few cost controlled years of that production does hold nice value.

10.  Allen Craig (AAA, OF/1B/DH?):  There is no question that the man can hit, but can he field?  Probably best at 1B, there is a small roadblock to his path to the majors in St. Louis. 

He can also play a little corner outfield and third base in a pinch, but does not have the defense you want at third for a starter, and he’ll have to continue to progress as a hitter to be a corner outfielder. 

So what’s to like?  He has hit everywhere he has played and isn’t too old for a prospect in AAA.  He’s probably already better than 3-4 players the Cardinals currently employ in St. Louis and is cost controlled.  He could/ should be a valuable utility man/ pinch hitter in the coming years.

Honorable mentions: Fernando Salas (AAA, RP, 24, 3.43 ERA), Jon Jay (AAA, CF, 24, .732 OPS) Mark Hamilton (AA-AAA, 1B, 24, .927 OPS), Daniel Descalso (AA-AAA, 2B, 22, .832 OPS), Pete Kozma (A-AA, SS, 21, .625 OPS), Roberto De La Cruz (Rookie-GCL, OF, 17, .546 OPS),  Jarrett Hoffpauir (AAA, 2B, 26, .843 OPS), Bryan Anderson (AAA, C, 22, .692), Adam Ottavino AAA, SP, 23, 4.75 ERA)

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