The Wellemeyer Effect

April 14, 2009 | mriehn | Comments 6

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by Michael Riehn
Whiteyball Staff

Todd Wellemeyer at the Winter Warm-Up

The Cardinals are now leading major league baseball with a 2.63 ERA over the first 8 games.  They are succeeding by limiting walks.  The staff’s 18 walks are the lowest in the majors and are almost 2 times less than the Milwaukee Brewers (35).  True to form for a Dave Duncan staff, they are 12th in major league baseball in K’s, but their walks are low enough that their strikeout to walk ratio is 3rd with a 2.83 mark (2.83 K’s to 1 Walk)

So what do we make of Todd Wellemeyer?  He seems to be our weak link with a 4.50 ERA, but last night he got great results.  Is it a sign of things to come or a mirage in the Arizona desert?  He limited the Diamondbacks to 1 ER in 7 innings pitched and did not throw a walk, but he was still wild in the strikezone.  In this start, he was pitching on either half of the plate instead of down the middle, and his plus changeup was on target.

Wellemeyer had 15 fly balls to 7 ground balls, but this is not cause for alarm as he has historically been a fly ball pitcher.  In his career year last year, he had 362 fly balls to 242 ground balls.  It is not exactly a Dave Duncan staple, but it works.  If I were the manager, Chris Duncan wouldn’t be anywhere near a Wellemeyer lineup.  You would see Rasmus, Ankiel and Ludwick every time he pitched, so that they could use their outstanding fielding skills to augment Wellemeyer’s strengths.

We really don’t know if this was the start of something new or just a random good outing.  Over any other starting pitcher on the staff, I think Wellemeyer carries the most significant risk.  It is important to remember the Verducci Effect.  This theory was developed by Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci and tracks the amount of innings a pitcher increases from year to year.  The basics of the theory:

The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It’s a general rule of thumb, and one I’ve been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it’s amazing how often they pay for it.

Pitchers generally feel the effects of abusive increases in workload the next year, not the season in which they were pushed. In other words, you might be able to finish that marathon for which you didn’t properly train, but your body will have hell to pay for it. I call it the Year After Effect.
-Tom Verducci

Todd Wellemeyer had a 111.3 innings pitched increase in 2008 compared to 2007.  Now Verducci believes this mostly hurts young players, but I think this is something we should keep an eye on with any pitcher.  Verducci has a great track record with predicting this phenomenon.  Last year he identified Yovani Gallardo, Dustin McGowan, Tom Gorzelanny Chad Gaudin and Fausto Carmona as at risk pitchers.  All of these players had significant injuries and/or loss of effectiveness.

Hopefully, Wellemeyer is lucky or old enough to buck the trend.  The Cardinals will need to be carefull with Welly this year so that we can keep him healthy enough for the stretch drive.  With the hitting seemingly set, starting pitching (and a closer) is the key to our playoff push this year.  The health or our starters will be the hallmark to a successful year.

P.S.  As promised, photos from opening day should be posted soon.

Photo Courtesy of Dustin Mattison

Filed Under: Baseball • Uncategorized

Tags: Todd Wellemeyer • Tom Verducci